A Haunting Forecast Before Halloween With Buckets of Rain

For a state that has been desperate for rainfall, we have seen our fair share over the past 6 weeks. From the official reports at Easterwood Airport in College Station, 5.19" of rain fell in September, where an impressive 7.10" accumulated so far this month, with a whole lot more to come. From the latest forecast, its possible that Easterwood could end the month of October with nearly 10" of total rainfall. Last time 10" of rain was recorded in a month at Easterwood Airport, was in October of 2006, 12.89" accumulated. 

What we have going on are several meteorological dynamics coming together, namely moisture, and a lifting mechanism to generate all of these potential rain makers. First of all, the atmosphere has been loading up with moisture from a couple of sources over the past couple of days. At the surface, moisture is being drawn from the rich Gulf of Mexico, while the upper levels are being enhanced from Tropical Storm Raymond in the Pacific Ocean.

When the powerful low over the Rockies glides into the Plains, it will tap into all of this moisture, rapidly strengthen and begin a string of heavy rain and even severe weather. For the Brazos Valley, our main concern will be possible flooding because when it rains, it will come down at a fast clip in a short period of time. Plus, with a fairly saturated ground, any storms that produce strong wind gusts can easily bring down large trees and power lines.

Below is a timescale of how this whole event will unfold with our computer simulations.

Your commute on Wednesday morning should be dry. By lunchtime, several showers will pass by from time to time. Rain becomes more widespread with embedded thunderstorms by Wednesday evening. Overnight and into early Thursday morning, a cold front will edge closer bringing the knock out hit with very heavy rain and even the potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts over 60mph at times.

Wet weather should begin to move out by the early afternoon and trick or treating weather at this time looks fine. If changes do happen with this forecast, I will keep you in the loop. Nonetheless, the entire Brazos Valley will get soaked.

Overall, a general 2"-3" of rain will fall over most of the area with several isolated pockets picking up 4"-5". Due to all of this rain, make sure to stay in the know with the weather if there are any Flood Advisories posted or any Flash Flood Warnings. I will make sure to keep you up to date through the entire storm on-air, online, and on social media.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Devistation In Moore Oklahoma...Severe Threat Here Tomorrow

Words sometimes cannot even describe what has occurred in Oklahoma this afternoon. Utter devastation ripped though many communities as a large scaled severe weather event unfolded. Rain, hail, and monster tornadoes scared many lives and neighborhoods, especially in Moore, OK. Before this event, the people of Moore are very familiar with severe weather as one of the worst storms to ever occur happened back on May 3, 1999. An F-5 Tornado with winds around 318mph, leveled homes, buildings, and ripped up roads. The only positive to come of the May 3, 1999 tornado were a blossom of storm shelters built all across Oklahoma.

Nonetheless, the images were powerful this afternoon.

Image: Moore Tornado May 20, 2013 from KWTV

 

Above is a snapshot of the tornado from this afternoon in Moore, OK. Storm spotters estimated the width of the tornado around 1 mile wide, with wind speeds equivalent to an EF-4 or EF-5. Following the abatement of the tornado, the aftermath images would just shake you.

 

Image: NBC News, the aftermath of the Moore, OK

 

Homes destroyed, gas leaks creating fires, and many people losing everything they had. As a meteorologist, we wish we could control the weather to steer these type of storms away, but all we can do is report and try to inform as many as possible.

 

An additional thought comes to mind in how this tornado parallels the path of the 1999 storm. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Norman, OK put together a graphic, displaying how close the paths were.

 

Image: NWS Norman, OK. Path of 2013 and 1999 Moore, OK Tornadoes

 

 

The 1999 storm was an F-5 tornado, but the rating on today's storm will wait until the NWS surveys the damage.

 

What we have to be concerned about tomorrow is that the severe weather will shift into the Brazos Valley. Up front, I can tell you that there is a small tornado threat here, but the atmospheric condition does not favor large, long tracking tornadoes. Furthermore, the highest chance for large tornadoes will likely occur from northeast Texas to Arkansas.

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK has placed the entire Brazos Valley under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather tomorrow, with parts of Leon County and points to the northeast under a "Moderate Risk."

 

Our set up for severe weather features a cold front to our north and west, along with a tropical flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

We see this all the time, but the true kicker to generating powerful storms lays in the upper levels. The jet stream along with other mid-level features create a strong enough wind to "tilt" individual thunderstorms. In other words, this upper level wind will allow storms to grow stronger and live longer. Therefore, strong winds, large hail, and even tornadoes become a concern when these type of conditions come together.

 

 

As the cold front moves closer and interacts with the daytime heating, clouds will begin to bubble up and severe weather will begin to break out.

 

Here is what we can expect here.

 

-Storms develop late in the afternoon Tuesday.

-Storms will continue into the night.

-Strongest storms will be to our northeast.

-Low threat of flash flooding.

-High threat of strong damaging wind.

-Moderate threat of large hail.

-Low threat of an isolated tornado.

 

Make sure to be weather aware tomorrow, and I will make sure to get as much information out to you on-air and online as well. Just make sure to get indoors if you see a storm approach, or you hear any thunder.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

From Drought To Rain Overload

For the most part of 2013, a majority of the the Brazos Valley, and in fact a big chunk of Texas has dug into a deeper drought. Several storms were able to dump an immaculate amount of rain, but as we know best, we are a "feast or famine," part of the country. Either its prolonged dry spells, or quick splashes of rain. However, last weeks event which occurred from Thursday to Friday was a true treat and invigorated our soils.

Take a look at where we started before last weeks events. The following image is from the latest Drought Monitor Report that is uploaded weekly by the USDA and NOAA.

Yikes! Most of the Brazos Valley during last Thursday's report is currently under a Severe Drought, with several areas outlined as an Extreme Drought. You don't even have to look at this image to know whats going on. Lawns have gone from a vibrant flush green, to dried out, brown weeds. Plus, for the year of 2013, Easterwood Airport's climate report noted we were a solid 3.50"+ below average.  Nevertheless, three soaking rounds of rain were able to pick up our spirits.

According to Easterwood Airport, in a 48 hour period, and incredible 4.43" of rain fell. This brings the yearly total to 13.97", and turns the 3.50" deficit into a minor surplus compared to average. Furthermore, there were several locations across the Brazos Valley, especially in Madison County which picked up close to 6.00" or rain during the same period. As good as it was to see a heap of wet weather, minor flooding caused problems all around the region. Nonetheless, I am sure there will be a huge swing from the current Drought Monitor to the new report that comes out Thursday morning.

If you thought we were done with the rain for now.....hold your horses, another dose is on the way. This time around, the rain will not be as widespread and as heavy as last week. What we are watching is an upper level feature over the northwest side of Mexico.

Slowly, but surly, this feature will rotate into Texas and spawn several showers as well as a few thunderstorms. Timing at the moment looks generally around Tuesday night and into Wednesday, with the best chance of rain coming in Wednesday. A few of these storms could have a period of brief heavy rainfall, and severe weather will no be part of the picture. Just make sure to have the umbrellas ready. In addition, by the end of the week and into the weekend, expect the temperatures to rise to levels we have not experienced yet this year......90s may be coming soon!!!!


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Huge Drought Improvement

Sunshine galore over the past couple of days, with even more to come. However, the early part of January featured plenty of clouds and a wall of water. Many locations across the Brazos Valley averaged between 3-6 inches of rain so far this month. Most coming within a 7 day period between January 7th and the 13th. Despite the heaping portions of rainfall, flooding was not a big concern. On the other hand, the ground, and vegetation were so happy to soak it all in.

In fact, there was so much rain here and across the state of Texas, that the drought situation improved tremendously. Before I show you how we ended up, here is a look at the state's drought monitor looked during last weeks report. On the right is the color coded map indicating where there is drought and where the drought is the worst. Areas in tan to brick red indicate where drought conditions were as of the January 8th report. Brick red represents the worst category of drought, "Exceptional Drought", and tan indicates a "Moderate Drought." Locations shaded in yellow are not in drought conditions, but are noted as "Abnormally Dry." From the January 8th report, here is how the state broke down.

None (no drought or dry conditions): 4.29%
Abnormally Dry (or worse): 95.71%
Moderate Drought (or worse): 83.78%
Severe Drought (or worse): 65.85%
Extreme Drought (or worse): 34.79%
Exceptional Drought (the worst category): 11.41%

From the numbers above, the state is quite dry, but nowhere near the deep drought from the summer of 2011. Again, this is before the massive rains.

Following several wet events, the map looks a lot different, and the numbers show off monumental improvements in just one week. The next image illustrates the current drought situation from the latest report that came out this morning.

When you look at the color scheme, you don't even need to see the statistics to know that the entire state has shown impressive progress in just a week. From the latest report, here are the numbers.


None (not abnormally dry or worse): 9.48%
Abnormally Dry (or worse): 90.52%
Moderate Drought (or worse): 74.01%
Severe Drought (or worse): 50.49%
Extreme Drought (or worse): 20.84%
Exceptional Drought (the worst category): 6.72%


Numbers don't lie, and even parts of the Brazos Valley are not even in drought conditions at this time.

Even though the extended forecast calls for lots of sun and barely any rainfall, its always good to get rain in Texas. I'll keep you updated.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A Texas Sized Rain Storm, Severe Storms Too

If you remember around this time last year, the drought was so bad, that even if you watered your lawn, it would stay brown. However, a storm late in January 2012 brought tremendous rainfall, flooding and even severe weather. It was this storm that began a chain of wet weather events to helping to turn the brown into a beautiful lush green. Another event is setting us as I write this that will hammer the entire viewing area, and in fact most of Texas with a wall of water.

At the moment, there are two main features with this next storm, a low-pressure center at the surface, and another in the upper levels. During this blog, we will concentrate on the low-pressure center at the surface. As of Monday afternoon, the center of low pressure resides in north Mexico with a movement towards the east. By Tuesday afternoon, the center of this storm will slide into south Texas. At this time, intense strengthening will take place, and widespread rain will take shape. 

Along the east side of this storm, a warm front will extend from south Texas to the upper Texas coastline. Ahead of the front there will be a shield of widespread rain with several embedded thunderstorms. In the meteorological world, we call this type of set up, "overrunning precipitation." Where the warm air aloft runs over the cooler air at the surface. Therefore the air lifts, condenses and creates precipitation. During this time, you will notice pockets of light rain early in the day Tuesday, with steadier, heavier rainfall by the afternoon and evening. But here is where the scenario gets interesting. The body of low pressure will move basically due north.

As the low moves north from Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, we will be in an area called the "warm sector." This is an area between the warm and cold front. Temperatures will rise though Wednesday morning, but this also puts the Brazos Valley in a location favorable for severe thunderstorms. Within this region, winds at the ground and aloft tend to have different speeds and directions, plus there tends to be additional instability. In other words, there could be a few storms that create winds greater than 58mph, large hail, and even a tornado. Furthermore, in this zone, rain will come down even harder on Wednesday than what we experience ahead of the warm front on Tuesday.

When it comes to the risk of tornadoes, data shows that the tornado risk will be small. I cannot rule out a few isolated weak tornadoes, but the dynamics of this particular storm do not favor a huge outbreak. Nonetheless, I will keep my eyes peeled throughout the entire storm and keep you in the loop on Twitter, Facebook and On-air.

What we will all remember from this event will be the tremendous rainfall and possible flooding. Because the center of low pressure will move due north from south Texas from Tuesday to Wednesday, rain will fall over the same areas for a 36 hour period. By the end of this, some locations could pick up nearly 6"-7" of rain. Below is one computer models projection on general rainfall amounts from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Again, this will be the general amounts received with pockets of higher totals. Due to the strong confidence in  this rain event, the National Weather Service out of Houston decided to slap on a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for all of southeast Texas from 12PM Tuesday until 12AM Thursday.

Considering the extend of heavy rainfall, I would not be surprised if this WATCH were to be extended into portions of north and central Texas. 

Overall, the simplify things, here is what you need to know:

Tuesday: Light rain becomes heavy during the evening and several thunderstorms will be around.

Wednesday Morning: Rain becomes heavier, thunderstorms could be severe with a small threat of tornadoes.

Wednesday Evening: The storm lifts north and we gradually dry out.

Impacts: Widespread 3"-5" rainfall total with a few locations picking up nearly 7". Flooding will be a concern, along with isolated severe thunderstorms.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.