A Haunting Forecast Before Halloween With Buckets of Rain

For a state that has been desperate for rainfall, we have seen our fair share over the past 6 weeks. From the official reports at Easterwood Airport in College Station, 5.19" of rain fell in September, where an impressive 7.10" accumulated so far this month, with a whole lot more to come. From the latest forecast, its possible that Easterwood could end the month of October with nearly 10" of total rainfall. Last time 10" of rain was recorded in a month at Easterwood Airport, was in October of 2006, 12.89" accumulated. 

What we have going on are several meteorological dynamics coming together, namely moisture, and a lifting mechanism to generate all of these potential rain makers. First of all, the atmosphere has been loading up with moisture from a couple of sources over the past couple of days. At the surface, moisture is being drawn from the rich Gulf of Mexico, while the upper levels are being enhanced from Tropical Storm Raymond in the Pacific Ocean.

When the powerful low over the Rockies glides into the Plains, it will tap into all of this moisture, rapidly strengthen and begin a string of heavy rain and even severe weather. For the Brazos Valley, our main concern will be possible flooding because when it rains, it will come down at a fast clip in a short period of time. Plus, with a fairly saturated ground, any storms that produce strong wind gusts can easily bring down large trees and power lines.

Below is a timescale of how this whole event will unfold with our computer simulations.

Your commute on Wednesday morning should be dry. By lunchtime, several showers will pass by from time to time. Rain becomes more widespread with embedded thunderstorms by Wednesday evening. Overnight and into early Thursday morning, a cold front will edge closer bringing the knock out hit with very heavy rain and even the potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts over 60mph at times.

Wet weather should begin to move out by the early afternoon and trick or treating weather at this time looks fine. If changes do happen with this forecast, I will keep you in the loop. Nonetheless, the entire Brazos Valley will get soaked.

Overall, a general 2"-3" of rain will fall over most of the area with several isolated pockets picking up 4"-5". Due to all of this rain, make sure to stay in the know with the weather if there are any Flood Advisories posted or any Flash Flood Warnings. I will make sure to keep you up to date through the entire storm on-air, online, and on social media.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Rain Keeps On Rolling - Robertson County

Since the holidays are right around the corner, we need to make sure that the weather compliments the time of year so we can feel a bit more festive. Recently, we have been in a pattern that favors crisp, cool mornings, with brilliant afternoons. Plus, at times strong cold fronts helped to generate extreme rain storms that have washed away a significant portion of our drought.

 

It was not so long ago, where the entire county was placed back under an Extreme Drought. In fact from the September 3, 2013 report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, Robertson, Leon, Brazos, Madison, Burleson, and even Washington counties were all considered to be in an Extreme Drought, which is the second highest stage of drought. Since, the latest report from October 15, 2013 issued placed all of Robertson County under a Moderate Drought, the first stage of drought. In just a few weeks, major improvements took place.

 

 

 

Take this into consideration, through the entire month of September, Hearne Municipal Airport officially recorded, 6.89” of rain. In addition, through this point in October, another 4.42” of rain accumulated. That is a combine total of 11.31”. Nearly one foot of rain in a short period of time! If we keep this trend rolling, we will be in good shape by then end of the year.

In fact, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released their seasonal drought outlook that extends into the end of January, 2014. Due to the influx of cold fronts, and addition of moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean, rains will continue to occur and the latest trends indicate a potential “removal” of the current drought. Again, this is the long term thinking and do not dictate our day to day weather, but yet trends can be our friends.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Slow and Steady Wins The Race

Over the past week to 10 days, we have had a major shift in our weather pattern. From what I can foresee in the future, our days in the 90s and even mid 80s look like they are done for now. A persistent north the south wind pierced some of the coldest air of the season so far and has kept a lid on the temperatures too. Each afternoon has been tranquil with very low humidity levels, lots of sunshine, and very nice temperatures. The big story here has also been the shocking morning lows.

Early Sunday morning was a tough one when lows dropped into the 40s. Hearne actually reported an official morning low of 40° on the dot. Due to this huge shift, we had to dig deep in the back of the closet and not only take out our recreational jackets, but wool coats too. Well, maybe the wool coats were a bit too heavy, but adds to the description.

Our main driver has been a trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere allowing this colder air to unleash though out the entire state of Texas.

Over the course of the next week and into the weekend, we will see this trough slowly lift to the north east as a strong ridge begins to develop to our west.

This will be a slow movement in the overall upper level pattern, but what you really need to know is that this tranquil pattern will stick around for a while. Also, the cool mornings and mild, sunny afternoons are here to stay right into the weekend. Overall, this will be exceptional outdoor weather.

On one more note, the tropics are still alive.....

Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed earlier today, and will move to the central Atlantic Ocean, well away from any land.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Huge Shift In The Weather, Plus Another Tropical Storm

Right off the bat, I want to show off the great news that came out today.

There it is........the latest Drought Monitor indicates that from all of the rain over the past three weeks, we have dug out of a deep hole. At the beginning of September, most of the Brazos Valley was under an Extreme Drought. However, all the rain took us down to a Moderate Drought, with parts of western Washington County still under a Severe Drought. Nonetheless, our situation has dramatically improved.

Speaking of dramatics, between now and Saturday, a huge swing in the weather is in the offing. A powerful low pressure center will strengthen rapidly over the next 24-36 hours over the Rockies producing drenching rainfall and very heavy snowfall.

We will not see any snowfall, but as the parent low lifts into the northern Plains, the trialing cold front will swing by Saturday producing several early showers and maybe a thunderstorm. By Saturday afternoon, the front will fully pass and deliver in a gusty north wind making the air outside feel much different than our current situation.

Not only will this front steam roll all over the humidity, much cooler air will arrive as well. Daytime highs will still be around 80° Sunday and Monday, the bigger story will be the overnight low temperatures. This layer of cold air is deep enough to take the mercury in the thermometer down into the 50s by Sunday morning and possibly a few of us experiencing upper 40s Monday morning. BRRRR!!!! That's cold. Time to dig through the closet to find our jackets from last winter.

On top of all of this action, Tropical Storm Karen is brewing in the central Gulf of Mexico and will eventually make landfall anywhere between the eastern Louisiana coast and western Florida panhandle.

Karen's track and intensity may change over the course of the next few days. I will keep you up to date with the latest on KAGS-HD News at 6 & 10. Also, you can log onto our website www.kagstv.com

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A September to Remember: Robertson County

Now that Summer is in the rear view mirror, we can look forward to all the wonderful weather the Autumn season has to offer. What’s great about this transition is that weather patterns tend to have more variation as opposed to a static form on a day to day basis. As we all know, Summer has sun, heat, humidity, and very little rainfall. However, as colder air builds in Canada and the northern United States, cold fronts will be more frequent visitors. This means rain will be part of our nomenclature more often, and temperatures will tend to fluctuate up and down easily. Despite easing our minds that wet weather will come around more frequently, September really went out with a bang.

If you were to combine the entire rainfall totals collected at the official reporting station in Hearne from May to August of this year, 7.29” was recorded. Now, compare that to the whole month of September, where an astounding 6.89” fell, in just one month. That is what I call a drought helper.

In the beginning of September, there were a few minor weather events that dropped insignificant amounts of rain, but the story was really what happened at the end of the month as cold fronts began to swoop in. On September 20^th, 2.10” of rain fell. September 28^th, 1.59” was recorded. The final knockout punch occurred September 29^th, where 2.81” fell.

I hope this keeps type of weather keeps coming in our direction because we continuously are in dire need of more wet weather. What I can tell you in the near term is that yet another cold front will move in by Saturday increasing our chance for rain, and significantly changing temperatures. Afternoon highs this weekend should remain in the 80s, but the largest contrast will occur in the mornings where temperatures could drop into the 50s for both Sunday and Monday mornings. Shorts and short sleeves now will turn to jackets sooner than you think.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.