Super Typhoon Haiyan.....Could Be Strongest Ever!

 

You don't have to be a meteorologist to know that the above image illustrates a very strong storm that will cause catastrophic devastation. Super Typhoon Haiyan, shown above could go down as the strongest and most destructive tropical cyclone on record. It's cloud mass covers over 2/3 of the entire country of the Philippines, winds are sustained around 195mph (equivalent to an EF-4 tornado), with gusts of 235mph (equivalent to an EF-5 tornado) at its core. Haiyan's movement is due west at a quick clip which would lead to a small window of time to weaken. Additionally, the latest report noted, based on satellite feeds, that the center of Haiyan had a minimal central pressure of 858mb (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/tdata/wpac/31W.html), which would put this storm as the strongest on record.

At the moment, Haiyan could weaken before landfall with sustained winds of 150mph, however, this storm is moving so fast, that the communities in the path of Haiyan may still experience its full extreme impact.

To view Haiyans final visible image in motion click here.

Besides Haiyan, the other famous storm to make headlines in the western Pacific was Super Typhoon Tip, back in 1979.

At it's peak, Tip had a minimal central pressure of 870mb (which is the lowest official reading on record, before Haiyan could move into the top spot), winds sustained at 190mph, with a width of 1,380miles. Eventually, Tip made landfall over the southern regions of Japan.

Closer the the United States, don't forget about Hurricane Camille in 1969. This storm made landfall along the Gulf coast with sustained winds of 190mph.

Extreme weather happens all the time, but Haiyan may top the charts as the strongest storm on record.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A Haunting Forecast Before Halloween With Buckets of Rain

For a state that has been desperate for rainfall, we have seen our fair share over the past 6 weeks. From the official reports at Easterwood Airport in College Station, 5.19" of rain fell in September, where an impressive 7.10" accumulated so far this month, with a whole lot more to come. From the latest forecast, its possible that Easterwood could end the month of October with nearly 10" of total rainfall. Last time 10" of rain was recorded in a month at Easterwood Airport, was in October of 2006, 12.89" accumulated. 

What we have going on are several meteorological dynamics coming together, namely moisture, and a lifting mechanism to generate all of these potential rain makers. First of all, the atmosphere has been loading up with moisture from a couple of sources over the past couple of days. At the surface, moisture is being drawn from the rich Gulf of Mexico, while the upper levels are being enhanced from Tropical Storm Raymond in the Pacific Ocean.

When the powerful low over the Rockies glides into the Plains, it will tap into all of this moisture, rapidly strengthen and begin a string of heavy rain and even severe weather. For the Brazos Valley, our main concern will be possible flooding because when it rains, it will come down at a fast clip in a short period of time. Plus, with a fairly saturated ground, any storms that produce strong wind gusts can easily bring down large trees and power lines.

Below is a timescale of how this whole event will unfold with our computer simulations.

Your commute on Wednesday morning should be dry. By lunchtime, several showers will pass by from time to time. Rain becomes more widespread with embedded thunderstorms by Wednesday evening. Overnight and into early Thursday morning, a cold front will edge closer bringing the knock out hit with very heavy rain and even the potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts over 60mph at times.

Wet weather should begin to move out by the early afternoon and trick or treating weather at this time looks fine. If changes do happen with this forecast, I will keep you in the loop. Nonetheless, the entire Brazos Valley will get soaked.

Overall, a general 2"-3" of rain will fall over most of the area with several isolated pockets picking up 4"-5". Due to all of this rain, make sure to stay in the know with the weather if there are any Flood Advisories posted or any Flash Flood Warnings. I will make sure to keep you up to date through the entire storm on-air, online, and on social media.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Heat Is The #1 Killer

                                                                                                                                  

  www.readywisconsin.wi.gov

As we all know, the summer gets extremely hot here in Texas. Temperatures rise as high as 105°, and when the humidity is factored in, it could feel as hot as 115° through the Brazos Valley. During a long day of farming, construction work, or gardening it can get brutal out there, but if you take the necessary safety steps you will be able to beat the heat.

The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) released a report on weather related fatalities based on different phenomenon. From hurricanes, tornadoes, lightning, floods, and heat related deaths, heat came out as the number one killer on average over the past 10 years. According to NOAA, 117 deaths have occurred each year on average from 2003-2012 directly to heat. That’s more than flooding (76) and lightning (35) associated fatalities combine.

 

As a meteorologist, I understand it gets redundant that we mention to stay cool and hydrated, but there is a meaningful reason behind it listed above.

In order to minimize the opportunity for heat exhaustion or even stroke to develop you can follow several simple tips. Know that official recorded temperatures are reported in the shade. In direct sunlight, add 10° to 15°. Make sure to drink plenty of water, cold water is best, but no matter the temperature, staying hydrated is key. Additionally, make sure there is a place that is cool nearby to take frequent breaks if you are outdoors for an extended period of time. For any runners out there, it’s best to exercise before dawn and after dusk. Finally, if you are feeling dizzy, weak, sweating heavily, nauseous, or even sensing you might faint, stop what you are doing immediately and move indoors where the air conditioning will cool you down.

If you use these simple tips though the summer season, you will be able to battle heat, even at its worst. On one more note, don’t forget to slap on plenty of sunscreen too.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

HEAT Streak Comes To An End Soon

We still have several more days of intense heat across the region, however, the tides will turn in our favor. With temperatures around 100° the past two days, and heat index levels (or feels like temperatures) around 105°, we are due for some much needed relief. Good news, we will get some relief by the end of the upcoming weekend.

Before we chat about the future, note the current situation.

Areas from west Texas to the Desert Southwest are baking with 100°+ readings, while cooler air lurks in the Northeast. The air temperatures are controlled by an upper level high in combination with the jet stream.

The jet stream is the true divide between the hot stuff and not so hot stuff. However, under the high pressure done lies the hottest air. In fact, as the high strengthens and shifts west over the weekend, areas in the southern California Desert (such as Death Valley) will have air temperatures approach 120°-125°. Its summertime and searing heat like that can happen in the desert, but WOW, that's baking.

Anyway, the high will shift westward with time, through the weekend and into next week, taking the really hot stuff away from the Brazos Valley.

 

When this shift happens, the jet stream will respond by orienting more in a north to south direction. Therefore, slightly cooler air will infiltrate the Brazos Valley, and additional moisture will return from the Gulf of Mexico. When you put this all together, the 100° weather will move out, more clouds will reduce the amount of searing sunshine, and the possibility of rain will come back as well.

 

Overall, expect it to be hot through Saturday. By Sunday, better changes begin to arrive :) 

 

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tropical Update: Besides Cosme, All Is Tranquil

Temperatures are soaring here in the Brazos Valley as we embark on our first period of 100° days. Its just a sign that Summer really is here and its going to stick around for a while. On the other hand, this also a time where the tropics begin to show signs of additional activity.

Out in the Pacific Ocean, Cosme became a Tropical Storm and as of this afternoon strengthened into a low end category 1 Hurricane.

Winds are sustained reaching 75 mph at the core of the storm with occasional gusts of 90mph. Some additional strengthening will occur, but in the long run, this is a storm that will move out into the open waters, away from land and dissipate.

It wont take long, but by the weekend, Cosme will most likely become a mass of clouds dropping heavy rain.

Besides the Pacific, this time of year, we keep a close eye on the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico for tropical formations that could impact Texas and the remainder of the United States. I can tell you at this time, all is quiet, not a storm in sight.

 

As new information arrives and new storms form, I will make sure to keep you in the loop. In the meantime, stay cool and hydrated as the scorching heat has arrived.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Summer Strong, Drought Strong: Focus on Robertson County

 

www.letthedogin.com

Summer is a typical time to take prolonged vacations, dips in the pool, and plenty of mouthwatering BBQ. However, this is a time where our minds are pointed towards one thing, the weather. Aside from watching the tropics, as this is currently Hurricane Season, long term dry spells translate to poor crop growth.

Given heat builds in the mid-section of the country rapidly this time of the year, the jet stream, or highway for large storms, tend to move well north of Texas. In other words, big rain makers on a consistent basis stray away from us during the summer season. Therefore, drought conditions tend to get worse quickly from June through the end of August.

As of the latest drought monitor report, southern Robertson County is under Moderate Drought conditions, while areas north of Hearne are drier and categorized as a Severe Drought. Sure our lawns are not as green as they could be, but this time two years ago, it was much worse. All of Robertson County and in fact most of Texas (70.61%) were facing Exceptional Drought conditions, the worst possible category of drought.

 

 

    Current Report: June 18, 2013                                         Past Report: June 21, 2011

 

 

Rains from 2012, and early this year have helped, but the current weather pattern will bring back some memories of two years ago. An upper level ridge of high pressure situated to our east will build over Texas and eventually to our west over a two week period. Therefore sunshine, heat, and humidity will dominate our weather with little to no rain at all. Depending on the evolution of this ridge, dry conditions could last an additional 1-2 weeks. Unless there is a swing in the tide or the tropics begin to activate prepare for a prolonged spell of dry weather as Summer is coming on strong.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Summertime Stretch Coming Right Up

Its hard to believe that the final day of Spring is coming up tomorrow. Once the clock strikes 12:04am on Friday, the Summer Solstice will kick start the official season of sizzle. For us here in the Brazos Valley, that means several extended periods of consistent weather with quiet, hot, and humid days. The key to most summers in Texas is a lack of rainfall.

As upper level ridges strengthen, storms tend to move well north of us. Rain does fall from time to time, but the overall scenario features dry weather. Recently, several showers have danced around Aggieland, but that trend will change later in the week.

In the upper levels a strong high will begin to dominate as the jet stream hangs well north.

.

With this being the case, storms tend to ride along the jet stream.

Several small disturbances moving into Texas is not out of the question, or even a few showers coming in off the Gulf. However, the overall pattern favors a long stretch of hot, dry weather through the weekend and into next week.

Stay cool out there and you can always join KAGS-HD for the latest.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Heat Begins To Takeover

andforpoorer.com

 

OK....the image was just for effect, but the weather is going to sizzle. Despite a great weekend with low humidity and some early morning rain Sunday, this week is going to be a lot different. A ridge in the upper levels of the atmosphere will take over and build from the Desert Southwest.

 

Eventually this searing ridge of high pressure will settle in the Central Plains and bake most of Texas. With this type of upper level pattern, you can expect similar weather each and everyday through the weekend. Therefore, the sun will be beating down on you, humidity levels will rise, and temperatures will hit the upper 90s to near 100°. Even if we don't hit 100°, it will feel like it when you add in the humidity.

 

Since this will be the first prolonged stretch of really hot weather, make sure to stay safe. Slop on plenty of sunscreen throughout the day if you are outdoors, keep hydrated, and take brakes often in the air conditioning. Finally, never leave your pets in the car.  

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

The Moore, OK Tornado: Fujita Scale vs. Enhanced Fujita Scale

Heart breaking images rooted from the extreme damage following the Moore, OK tornado earlier this week. Same occurred in Granbury, TX just a week prior. I personally cannot even imagine being in the middle of such a devastating phenomenon.

Looking at the Moore, OK tornado a bit closer, this twister cut a 17-mile path and was 1.3 miles wide at its max. Additionally, due to the damage following the National Weather Service (NWS) survey, the tornado was rated an EF-5 with winds estimated between 200-210mph.

Image: www.cnn.com

If you are not familiar with the EF-Scale, it is the scale used based on post-storm damage to rate the strength of a tornado. EF-Scale is also known as the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which was implemented on February 1, 2007. This new scale more closely represents the estimated wind speed from the tornado based on the damage it creates from the advancements in the science of physics and engineering. There are six categories that range from EF-0 to EF-5.

Note the estimated wind speed increased with and increased rating. However, if the Moore, OK tornado occurred before this new scale was revealed, it would not be rated an F-5 or even an F-4.....interesting to fathom.

Dr. Tetsuya Fujita in collaboration with Allen Pearson, introduced the original Fujita Scale back in 1971 to rate the intensity of tornadoes. The following illustrated the wind speeds from the original Fujita Scale.

F-0: 40-72mph

F-1: 73-112mph

F-2: 113-157mph

F-3: 158-206mph

F-4: 207-260mph

F-5: 261-318mph

If the Moore, OK tornado from this past week was scaled on the original F-Scale it would be in range with a high end F-3 and maybe low end F-4. On the other hand, the May 3, 1999 tornado that crossed paths with Moore, OK was a true F-5 with winds estimated over 300mph.

Its interesting to note how we perceive the weather based on scales, and numbers, especially when the same scale was drastically changed.

No matter how strong or "weak" a tornado is, always take a Tornado Watch or Warning seriously and make sure to have a safety plan in place. Tornadoes are monsters and can cause catastrophic damage.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Devastating North Texas Tornado Outbreak

From: The Texas Chaos Storm Team

Last evenings events were hard to think about and very tough to track. It wasn't the quantity of tornadoes that made this a news headline, but rather the quality of each individual thunderstorm. Many areas in north Texas, around the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex were rattled by widespread severe thunderstorms. In particular, there were two towns that were hit the hardest: Granbury and Cleburn.

The original atmospheric set up did not call for such destruction. However, as the afternoon and evening wore on, the combination of an upper level low pressure system, low level heat & humidity, as well as a quick moving jet stream, came together to hash out this event. The key was the upper level low. While it was spinning over west Texas, the low was quite disorganized. However, during it's move to north Texas, the circulation became tighter and strengthening was the result. Along with the strengthening low, very cold air was associated in the upper levels, allowing for thunderstorms to grow higher, and in turn become severe with large hail, strong wind and generating tornadoes.

Some of the images were just stunning. Check out this picture of hail in Ganbury, TX that I found on facebook last night.

From spike to spike, the hail stone measures approximately 4" in diameter. That's equivalent to an average grapefruit. I cannot image something like this falling from the sky. What this illustrates is that the updraft (or upward motion) in the thunderstorm was so strong that it could support the weight and growth of this monster. The updraft speed must have been over 100mph to keep this suspended for a long period of time before crashing down to the ground.

Not only was the above picture incredible, but what meteorologists were able to view on Doppler Radar. Looking at the structure of the precipitation was a good indication that rotation was occuring in two different supercells just joust of the Metroplex last night.

 

If you took this image for what its worth, you would think that these were rotating supercells that look like prolific lightning, rain, and hail producers. But if you take a deeper look at the "Doppler" part of the radar, you will notice a tight circulation in the "velocity" image (illustrating speed and direction of the wind).

 

 

Here, you are looking at the southern cell that ripped though Granbury and Cleburn. This is a velocity image that helped to pinpoint the location of strongest rotation, or where the tornado was spinning. Green colors denote wind moving towards the radar site, while red shows wind moving away from the radar site. When you get these green and red colors tightly together, we call this a "couplet," indicating that there is a strong rotation in the storm with a possible tornado. Its these images on radar that support a Tornado Warning issued by the National Weather Service. Unfortunately, a radar cannot see what is happening on the ground, therefore, storm spotters, and law enforcement are extremely important in reporting whether there is a tornado or not. In this case, there was and for a time, this tornado was reported to be one-mile wide while in Granbury.

 

Overall, this was a very destructive event that unfolded last night and at this time the National Weather Service (NWS) in Ft. Worth is assessing each storm where a tornado was reported. Based on the damage in each area, the NWS will qualify whether a damage was from a tornado or not. If damage was from a tornado, it will be rated based on the Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF-Scale).

 

 

Because the wind was not directly measured during each storm, the rating is used as an estimation of how strong the winds were. From the survey, the NWS will say, "it will take this wind speed to cause this type of damage." Based on that estimated wind speed, an EF rating will be placed on that particular tornado.

 

From this morning and afternoon's survey, the NWS has rated a couple of tornadoes already. Each of the following assessments are for individual tornadoes.

 

Cleburn: EF-3 tornado with max winds of 140mph, and a width of 0.6 miles.

 

Granbury: EF-4 tornado ----preliminary

 

Cleburn: EF-0, minor damage with a max wind of 85mph.

 

For the other reports, you can click here to see the latest from the National Weather Service. As of this afternoon, there are preliminary 10 reports of tornadoes from last night. This number can change.

 

In closing, this was a horrific event with many reports of destroyed homes, injuries, and fatalities. When the weather looks like its going to take a turn for the worse, make sure to use your resources to stay in the loop. Your mobile devise, computer, tablet, and television are the best ways to know whats going on. Additionally, buying a NOAA Weather radio will instantly let you know if severe weather will threaten your location. Finally, your local television meteorologist will always give you the newest information so you and your family can make the safest decision.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

 

 

Possible Severe Weather Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, but incredible heat fronted the headlines this afternoon. This morning, the official low temperature only managed to dip to 69°, which happens to be a new record high, minimum temperature for the date. The old record was 67° from 1999. Additionally, with aid of sunshine, the mercury soared into the 80s, and broke a record high temperature. Officially from Easterwood Field, the high temperature eclipsed 82°, breaking the old record from 1982 and 2002 of 79°. Despite a lack of rainfall and storms today, breaking two temperature records along with 30mph+ winds make for a conversation starter around the water-cooler. Yet, there will be rain and several strong storms in our area soon.

At the moment, an area of low pressure swirling on the lee-side of the Colorado Rockies will be the focal point for generating strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas though the Mid-West. This is the same body of low pressure cranking up the wind here today and tomorrow. Over the next 24-36 hours, the center of low pressure should move out of the Rockies, into northern Oklahoma and towards Missouri. Plus, a cold front will hang back and swing though the Brazos Valley as well as most of Texas tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of this front, the air is much warmer than average, and there is plenty of moisture continuing to stream from the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the set ingredients in play, and a dynamic cold front will produce a line of thunderstorms with the possibility of damaging winds.

Aloft, winds at the jet stream level will be so powerful, there will be a possibility of tornadoes here, with a much better chance for tornadic activity in northern Louisiana, Arkansas and western Mississippi. Whats important to know here with the jet stream diagram to the left, the wind at the surface and 30,000 feet above the surface are basically lined up in the same direction. In other words, the tornado threat will be minimal, but any storms that form, have the capability of carrying these stronger winds aloft, and bring them to the surface. Therefore, some of the strongest thunderstorms will likely plow though with winds gusting over 60mph at times. Furthermore, after analyzing the newest data coming in, hail will be possible with a few storms as well. However, in order for hail to form, updrafts need to be strong. In order for this to occur, enough sun need to come out tomorrow to intensify destabilization. 

Overall, timing of this event should be between 3pm and 9pm Tuesday afternoon/evening. Exact Trac pans out the strongest storms slicing though the heart of the viewing area around 6pm. Even before the strongest storms move in, areas of rain will make the roads wet for the evening commute. Make sure to ease up on the roads and give yourself several extra minutes to make it safe to your destination. Following the frontal passage and line of storms, drier, cooler air will begin to seep in. 80° temperatures will take a break Wednesday as more realistic weather for this time of the year will settle in for a few days. Also, low temperatures Wednesday night could slide down into the 30s.

This will not be a huge severe weather outbreak, but keep in mind that there will be strong thunderstorms around tomorrow afternoon. Nonetheless, the Brazos Valley will receive widespread rainfall. Most areas will pick up 1/4" of rain with isolated locations picking up nearly 1" in stronger storms. 

I will make sure to keep you up to date as storms erupt.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Is Winter Gone?

Officially, Winter has about two additional months before Spring arrives. So no, winter is not gone technically....well at least in parts of the US. However, with the recent pattern of sunshine, and well above average temperatures, if feels like Winter is a distant memory. Its either that, or we are experiencing quite a generous January thaw.

While the Texas sun warms us up, a true arctic blast has moved into areas along the northern Plains, Great Lakes as well as the Northeast. This is some of the coldest air many areas have felt since 2009. Not only are temperatures struggling to reach 0° from Minnesota to northern Maine, but a ferocious wind takes wind chill (or feels like) values down between -30° and -50°. This is a dangerous outbreak that will persist for several days, with additional waves of cold air coming according to several long term computer models such as the highly regarded European model.

What we can see from the incoming data is that the jet stream is aligned in a way where a deep trough covers the east, while on the other side of the country a strong ridge is building out west. Meteorologically, we call this type of pattern meridional. In other words, the wind flow in the upper levels tend to have a north-south orientation which corresponds to lines of longitude, in turn following the Prime Meridian. Furthermore, the atmosphere is always looking to stay in a state of equilibrium, or balance. If one area is hot, another area will be cold, to balance out extremes. There are many other factors, but those are the basics.

Anyway, the jet stream took a large dip over the eastern United States, which opened up the gates for colder air from Canada to move right in.

Over the next 7 days, the current trogh over the eastern U.S. will tend to lift and allow a strong ridge from the west build in over the central Plains.

For us, that leaves the Brazos Valley in the bulls-eye for tranquil weather and above average warmth. Therefore, we can expect a few areas of fog early in the morning, with sun and temperatures in the 70s during the day. Temperatures should peak into the middle 70s by Thursday before our next cold front cools down the air temporarily. Enjoy the outdoors, and despite a low sun angle this time of year, make sure to slap on some sunscreen for added protection.

Its always nice to have beautiful weather like this during the winter, but we need more rain to help the drought across the Lone Star State. Ill keep you updated.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Huge Drought Improvement

Sunshine galore over the past couple of days, with even more to come. However, the early part of January featured plenty of clouds and a wall of water. Many locations across the Brazos Valley averaged between 3-6 inches of rain so far this month. Most coming within a 7 day period between January 7th and the 13th. Despite the heaping portions of rainfall, flooding was not a big concern. On the other hand, the ground, and vegetation were so happy to soak it all in.

In fact, there was so much rain here and across the state of Texas, that the drought situation improved tremendously. Before I show you how we ended up, here is a look at the state's drought monitor looked during last weeks report. On the right is the color coded map indicating where there is drought and where the drought is the worst. Areas in tan to brick red indicate where drought conditions were as of the January 8th report. Brick red represents the worst category of drought, "Exceptional Drought", and tan indicates a "Moderate Drought." Locations shaded in yellow are not in drought conditions, but are noted as "Abnormally Dry." From the January 8th report, here is how the state broke down.

None (no drought or dry conditions): 4.29%
Abnormally Dry (or worse): 95.71%
Moderate Drought (or worse): 83.78%
Severe Drought (or worse): 65.85%
Extreme Drought (or worse): 34.79%
Exceptional Drought (the worst category): 11.41%

From the numbers above, the state is quite dry, but nowhere near the deep drought from the summer of 2011. Again, this is before the massive rains.

Following several wet events, the map looks a lot different, and the numbers show off monumental improvements in just one week. The next image illustrates the current drought situation from the latest report that came out this morning.

When you look at the color scheme, you don't even need to see the statistics to know that the entire state has shown impressive progress in just a week. From the latest report, here are the numbers.


None (not abnormally dry or worse): 9.48%
Abnormally Dry (or worse): 90.52%
Moderate Drought (or worse): 74.01%
Severe Drought (or worse): 50.49%
Extreme Drought (or worse): 20.84%
Exceptional Drought (the worst category): 6.72%


Numbers don't lie, and even parts of the Brazos Valley are not even in drought conditions at this time.

Even though the extended forecast calls for lots of sun and barely any rainfall, its always good to get rain in Texas. I'll keep you updated.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Light Icy Event Tuesday Morning, Maybe Wednesday Too

Seems like a distant memory, but it was only a couple of days ago where temperatures soared into the 70s. However, as this winter season continues to roll on, the main plot stays the same...."It's Cold Out There!" Now, temperatures struggle to move out of the 40s, while overnight lows bottom out near freezing, not good for the farming community. With such cold air in place and disturbed weather coming our way, a possible icy scenario may crop up tomorrow morning. Albeit a light event, but any wintry precipitation can cause problems on the roads.

Saturday night, a cold front moved by and delivered a new batch of cold air from the north. The same front continues to move slowly east, but with high pressure to our north, the cold air is not budging. What you can notice from the illustration on the right is that high pressure flows clockwise and with that motion, a chilly north flow will be persistent as long as the high-pressure system stays to our north and north west. Additionally, whats important about this image is that this demonstrates what is happening at the surface, and not the upper levels. In order for our icy situation to come to fruition, the surface and the upper levels will have to be set up correctly.

This happens to be the case, as the upper level flow shows two main distinct characters. First, there is a flow coming out of the Pacific Ocean in the upper levels, drawing in moisture and warmer air aloft. Two, the flow is quite energetic with disturbances riding along too. Its these disturbances in the upper levels that help to lift the air and generate clouds that can precipitate. When this type of mixture occurs  its hard for snow to reach the ground. Hence, the possibility for freezing rain and ice pellets (also known as sleet).

Warmer air aloft carried by air from the Pacific Ocean will be warm enough, when precipitation falls to the ground, it will be as liquid as opposed to snow or ice crystals. This is where the surface temperatures come into play. Since the air will be much colder closer to the ground, the liquid precipitation that falls to the ground, could freeze during decent as sleet, or freeze on the ground as freezing rain. Therefore, temperatures will be critical tomorrow morning as many locations in our viewing area will be right around 32°, if not just below. Even if the temperature is 34° at your house, sleet can still fall from the sky and create slick spots. However, if the temperature is 32° or below and it looks like its raining, its really freezing rain that will cause huge travel problems.

Based on the latest computer guidance, areas along highway 21 and points north have the best chance to see icy roads tomorrow, where areas south could stay all rain.

Areas in pink represent locations that could have ice tomorrow, where places in green indicate a plain rain.

Overall: This will be a light event and not a big storm. However, if there are any ice accumulation (even if it seems minor) roads will be hazardous.

Timing: Best timing for sleet or freezing rain will be between 3am and 7am Tuesday, before temperatures warm above 32°.

First To Freeze: Bridges and overpasses, as well as secondary roads.

Following tomorrow mornings event, I'm keeping my eye closely on Wednesday morning as well.


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Wintry Weather In The Brazos Valley?

***Note: I apologize for the lack of images. A few technical difficulties need to be worked out with Blogger. I hope to fix these problems soon.***

Once in a while, the Brazos Valley will welcome Old Man Winter to come and stay. Jack Frost has already paid us several visits with a multitude of cold shots from Canada. On average, this area experiences some sort of frozen precipitation falling from the sky every 2 years. In a 5-10 year window, snow or ice will accumulate once according to climate records. Nonetheless, though ice and snow cause hazardous driving conditions, its a treat to see a rare sight.

At the moment, we have several key elements in play that could help produce light frozen precipitation overnight and early Friday morning. Before I get into the details I would like to mention upfront that this will be no big deal and the roads across the entire viewing area should be fine.

In order for this to work correctly, we need a helping of cold air, and a disturbance to generate precipitation.

You might have noticed how chilly its been lately with temperatures hovering 10-20 degrees below average during the day and around the freezing point at night. High pressure to our north and north west pushed in air from Canada, locking in the chill. Not only are temperatures cold at the surface, but aloft as well. That's good if you want snow or sleet.

Additionally, an upper level disturbance sits to our west which has already caused havoc in west Texas. Areas from El Paso to Kerrville have reported snow. The most interesting reports came from Guadeloupe Pass in Pine Springs, TX. Pockets of heavy snow and gusts near 50mph have been spotted. With reduced visibilities, Pine Springs has had moments of blizzard-like conditions.

The same disturbance will move into northwest Texas and eventually though Oklahoma. During this time, pockets of light precipitation will fall across the Brazos Valley. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the path of low-pressure does not favor widespread snow for us. However, with cold air in place and arrangement of temperatures in the upper levels, there is a possibility of light sleet or even a few snowflakes that could fall from the sky.

Mainly, this will be a light rain event, but from time to time, you might see an ice pellet or wet snowflake. Any frozen precipitation that falls will melt when it comes into contact with the ground. Therefore, I do not expect any ice accumulations on the roads. Just make sure to keep it easy tonight and tomorrow as some roads could be wet.

Overall, this will not be a big deal, but something to be aware of. Maybe down the pike there could be some snow in our future. For now, keep your eyes to the sky.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.