Possible Severe Weather Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, but incredible heat fronted the headlines this afternoon. This morning, the official low temperature only managed to dip to 69°, which happens to be a new record high, minimum temperature for the date. The old record was 67° from 1999. Additionally, with aid of sunshine, the mercury soared into the 80s, and broke a record high temperature. Officially from Easterwood Field, the high temperature eclipsed 82°, breaking the old record from 1982 and 2002 of 79°. Despite a lack of rainfall and storms today, breaking two temperature records along with 30mph+ winds make for a conversation starter around the water-cooler. Yet, there will be rain and several strong storms in our area soon.

At the moment, an area of low pressure swirling on the lee-side of the Colorado Rockies will be the focal point for generating strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas though the Mid-West. This is the same body of low pressure cranking up the wind here today and tomorrow. Over the next 24-36 hours, the center of low pressure should move out of the Rockies, into northern Oklahoma and towards Missouri. Plus, a cold front will hang back and swing though the Brazos Valley as well as most of Texas tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of this front, the air is much warmer than average, and there is plenty of moisture continuing to stream from the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the set ingredients in play, and a dynamic cold front will produce a line of thunderstorms with the possibility of damaging winds.

Aloft, winds at the jet stream level will be so powerful, there will be a possibility of tornadoes here, with a much better chance for tornadic activity in northern Louisiana, Arkansas and western Mississippi. Whats important to know here with the jet stream diagram to the left, the wind at the surface and 30,000 feet above the surface are basically lined up in the same direction. In other words, the tornado threat will be minimal, but any storms that form, have the capability of carrying these stronger winds aloft, and bring them to the surface. Therefore, some of the strongest thunderstorms will likely plow though with winds gusting over 60mph at times. Furthermore, after analyzing the newest data coming in, hail will be possible with a few storms as well. However, in order for hail to form, updrafts need to be strong. In order for this to occur, enough sun need to come out tomorrow to intensify destabilization. 

Overall, timing of this event should be between 3pm and 9pm Tuesday afternoon/evening. Exact Trac pans out the strongest storms slicing though the heart of the viewing area around 6pm. Even before the strongest storms move in, areas of rain will make the roads wet for the evening commute. Make sure to ease up on the roads and give yourself several extra minutes to make it safe to your destination. Following the frontal passage and line of storms, drier, cooler air will begin to seep in. 80° temperatures will take a break Wednesday as more realistic weather for this time of the year will settle in for a few days. Also, low temperatures Wednesday night could slide down into the 30s.

This will not be a huge severe weather outbreak, but keep in mind that there will be strong thunderstorms around tomorrow afternoon. Nonetheless, the Brazos Valley will receive widespread rainfall. Most areas will pick up 1/4" of rain with isolated locations picking up nearly 1" in stronger storms. 

I will make sure to keep you up to date as storms erupt.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Close, But No Cigar

A spell of warm air continues to keep temperatures well above average for a majority of Texas here in late January. Most areas have topped off in the 70s, with several locations, such as Hearne and Waco reaching the low 80s. These are not record setting temperatures, but are quite close. High pressure centered to our east helps to turn the wind from the south, rising the mercury and adding moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Higher dew point values have contributed to morning fog as well as a sticky feeling outside. However, there is cold air in sight. The question is, will any of that ooze in here?

Note the regional temperature plot to the right. Most of Texas remains very warm for this time of year. Along the Red River and points north, there is a stark difference. Take a look at Dallas and Oklahoma City. Dallas sits at 78° this afternoon, while a three hour drive north to Oklahoma City is drastically colder by nearly 40°. Between the cold and warm air masses, a slow moving cold front that is nearly stationary is meandering south towards the Brazos Valley. This is not a front that will blast forward, but one that will move as far south as it can until it runs out of steam.If this front does not come though the Brazos Valley, warm air will win out, and the cold air will not touch us.

According to Exact Trac, the front will remain to our north this evening and inch its way farther south overnight. During this time, a south wind will persist and the moisture train off the Gulf will not stop. Therefore, by morning, an overcast will develop and areas of fog will create tricky travel with visibilities in a few spots below a 1/2 mile at times. By the late morning and into the afternoon, the air will sufficiently warm up and the fog will not be a problem. Additionally, breaks in the clouds will allow the sun to come out and temperatures go way up again.

By the afternoon tomorrow, the front should move south, but stall just north of the Brazos Valley. Since we remain south of the front, the warm air will not go away. Additionally, along the front there will be a few isolated showers that form from the afternoon heating, but not many will experience wet weather. From there, the front will lift back north and clouds will mix in with sunshine though the weekend along with several light showers from time to time. By Tuesday a stronger cold front will move by with the possibility of severe weather for parts of northeast Texas and Arkansas. Some wet weather is in the offing for us on Tuesday and I will closely monitor the latest computer models that roll in.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Light Icy Event Tuesday Morning, Maybe Wednesday Too

Seems like a distant memory, but it was only a couple of days ago where temperatures soared into the 70s. However, as this winter season continues to roll on, the main plot stays the same...."It's Cold Out There!" Now, temperatures struggle to move out of the 40s, while overnight lows bottom out near freezing, not good for the farming community. With such cold air in place and disturbed weather coming our way, a possible icy scenario may crop up tomorrow morning. Albeit a light event, but any wintry precipitation can cause problems on the roads.

Saturday night, a cold front moved by and delivered a new batch of cold air from the north. The same front continues to move slowly east, but with high pressure to our north, the cold air is not budging. What you can notice from the illustration on the right is that high pressure flows clockwise and with that motion, a chilly north flow will be persistent as long as the high-pressure system stays to our north and north west. Additionally, whats important about this image is that this demonstrates what is happening at the surface, and not the upper levels. In order for our icy situation to come to fruition, the surface and the upper levels will have to be set up correctly.

This happens to be the case, as the upper level flow shows two main distinct characters. First, there is a flow coming out of the Pacific Ocean in the upper levels, drawing in moisture and warmer air aloft. Two, the flow is quite energetic with disturbances riding along too. Its these disturbances in the upper levels that help to lift the air and generate clouds that can precipitate. When this type of mixture occurs  its hard for snow to reach the ground. Hence, the possibility for freezing rain and ice pellets (also known as sleet).

Warmer air aloft carried by air from the Pacific Ocean will be warm enough, when precipitation falls to the ground, it will be as liquid as opposed to snow or ice crystals. This is where the surface temperatures come into play. Since the air will be much colder closer to the ground, the liquid precipitation that falls to the ground, could freeze during decent as sleet, or freeze on the ground as freezing rain. Therefore, temperatures will be critical tomorrow morning as many locations in our viewing area will be right around 32°, if not just below. Even if the temperature is 34° at your house, sleet can still fall from the sky and create slick spots. However, if the temperature is 32° or below and it looks like its raining, its really freezing rain that will cause huge travel problems.

Based on the latest computer guidance, areas along highway 21 and points north have the best chance to see icy roads tomorrow, where areas south could stay all rain.

Areas in pink represent locations that could have ice tomorrow, where places in green indicate a plain rain.

Overall: This will be a light event and not a big storm. However, if there are any ice accumulation (even if it seems minor) roads will be hazardous.

Timing: Best timing for sleet or freezing rain will be between 3am and 7am Tuesday, before temperatures warm above 32°.

First To Freeze: Bridges and overpasses, as well as secondary roads.

Following tomorrow mornings event, I'm keeping my eye closely on Wednesday morning as well.


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A Texas Sized Rain Storm, Severe Storms Too

If you remember around this time last year, the drought was so bad, that even if you watered your lawn, it would stay brown. However, a storm late in January 2012 brought tremendous rainfall, flooding and even severe weather. It was this storm that began a chain of wet weather events to helping to turn the brown into a beautiful lush green. Another event is setting us as I write this that will hammer the entire viewing area, and in fact most of Texas with a wall of water.

At the moment, there are two main features with this next storm, a low-pressure center at the surface, and another in the upper levels. During this blog, we will concentrate on the low-pressure center at the surface. As of Monday afternoon, the center of low pressure resides in north Mexico with a movement towards the east. By Tuesday afternoon, the center of this storm will slide into south Texas. At this time, intense strengthening will take place, and widespread rain will take shape. 

Along the east side of this storm, a warm front will extend from south Texas to the upper Texas coastline. Ahead of the front there will be a shield of widespread rain with several embedded thunderstorms. In the meteorological world, we call this type of set up, "overrunning precipitation." Where the warm air aloft runs over the cooler air at the surface. Therefore the air lifts, condenses and creates precipitation. During this time, you will notice pockets of light rain early in the day Tuesday, with steadier, heavier rainfall by the afternoon and evening. But here is where the scenario gets interesting. The body of low pressure will move basically due north.

As the low moves north from Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, we will be in an area called the "warm sector." This is an area between the warm and cold front. Temperatures will rise though Wednesday morning, but this also puts the Brazos Valley in a location favorable for severe thunderstorms. Within this region, winds at the ground and aloft tend to have different speeds and directions, plus there tends to be additional instability. In other words, there could be a few storms that create winds greater than 58mph, large hail, and even a tornado. Furthermore, in this zone, rain will come down even harder on Wednesday than what we experience ahead of the warm front on Tuesday.

When it comes to the risk of tornadoes, data shows that the tornado risk will be small. I cannot rule out a few isolated weak tornadoes, but the dynamics of this particular storm do not favor a huge outbreak. Nonetheless, I will keep my eyes peeled throughout the entire storm and keep you in the loop on Twitter, Facebook and On-air.

What we will all remember from this event will be the tremendous rainfall and possible flooding. Because the center of low pressure will move due north from south Texas from Tuesday to Wednesday, rain will fall over the same areas for a 36 hour period. By the end of this, some locations could pick up nearly 6"-7" of rain. Below is one computer models projection on general rainfall amounts from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Again, this will be the general amounts received with pockets of higher totals. Due to the strong confidence in  this rain event, the National Weather Service out of Houston decided to slap on a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for all of southeast Texas from 12PM Tuesday until 12AM Thursday.

Considering the extend of heavy rainfall, I would not be surprised if this WATCH were to be extended into portions of north and central Texas. 

Overall, the simplify things, here is what you need to know:

Tuesday: Light rain becomes heavy during the evening and several thunderstorms will be around.

Wednesday Morning: Rain becomes heavier, thunderstorms could be severe with a small threat of tornadoes.

Wednesday Evening: The storm lifts north and we gradually dry out.

Impacts: Widespread 3"-5" rainfall total with a few locations picking up nearly 7". Flooding will be a concern, along with isolated severe thunderstorms.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.