Since Hurricane Ike, It All Went Downhill

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It was back in September of 2008, a monster hurricane came onshore, ripping up parts of the Texas coastline. From eroding the beaches to blowing out windows in downtown Houston, Ike was one powerful beast. Also, flooding rains spread inland.....but since this phenomenon, rain has been hard to come by.

A major drought set across the entire state of Texas with the driest times being in 2011. However, there is still a lot of work to do.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in League City decided to crunch some numbers to see how much rain we really are below climatological average since Hurricane Ike. The numbers seem unreal, but they are true.

The following numbers represent inches of rainfall below normal beginning in October 2008 - August 29, 2013:

College Station: -43.38"

George Bush Intercontinental: -53.33"

Houston, Hobby Airport: -59.37"

Galveston: -73.54"

They are incredible numbers, and truly tell the tail of the past 5 years. As we all know, any rain is welcome rain.

Take a look up once in a while, you never know what you'll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

When Will This Heat Streak End?

When will this heat streak end? This is a question that even our Forefathers asked at the end of the Summer season in desperation for cooler, crisper air. If you lived in the Northeast, cooler weather typically arrives in September, but here in Texas, we all know 90s and even 100° weather can linger for a while. In fact, the latest observation of 100° weather in College Station was recorded at 103° on September 28, 2005. According to climatology, we still have a ways to go, but hope is just over the horizon.

At the moment, we are sitting in a pattern where wet weather steers away from the Brazos Valley, a south wind persists, and temperatures will remain in the 90s to near 100°. We are in a holding pattern due to forces in the upper levels. Periods of strengthening high pressure ridges keep the weather in check, but long term guidance suggests a break in this overall framework.

Through the first 10 days of September, expect the sizzle, but a potential front could near the Brazos Valley anywhere from the 11th - 15th of the September. Below is a prog from the GFS model on September 13th, illustrating a cold front along with thunderstorms entering Texas.

This forecast is very far out at this time, but it does give hope to the fact that changes might come in the future. I will keep you in the loop on this far out glimpse of cooler weather, and rain too.

Make sure to look up, because you never know what you'll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Taking A Look Back: Robertson County

We will never forget, but yet we want to. It was at this time two years ago, Robertson County and the entire state of Texas endured the deepest part of an elongated drought. Back in 2011, it seemed like we would never break out of our slump. Leaves were fragile and as dry as sand, and the landscape mirrored the Sahara Desert. In fact, all of Robertson County was under Extreme Drought conditions, the highest level of drought. At the time, 74.50% of the state joined in too. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Fort Worth, Hearne’s official rain total from January – August 2011 measured a mere 8.54” of precipitation.

Since, the weather turned a new leaf, and more numerous rain events accelerated improvements. Now, two years later, Robertson County currently sits under Severe Drought conditions, only third of five categories of drought. In addition, only 2.58% of Texas at the moment resides in an Extreme Drought. This being aided by changes in the overall upper level patter, and additional cold fronts moving farther south. From January –August of this year, Hearne has officially recorded 13.64” of precipitation, much better than two years ago.

 

More work has to be done, but when you take a look back, we are in far better shape than in 2011. In the near term, little to no rain should fall over the following week as dry weather sets in, and the air heats up. However, once the season changes to Autumn, climatologically, more rain should be in view.

Make sure to look up once in a while, you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

YAHOO!!!! More Rain!

It has been an uncommon theme to talk about rain in the forecast which is upsetting, but when it happens, there is a party in the weather center. This past weekend, several communities experienced heavy downpours with some localized ponding and minor flooding. Max Storm estimated that a few locations in Washington County picked up as much as 4 inches of rain. However, that was a very isolated event, but the foreseeable future looks good again.

As of this afternoon, a string of thunderstorms developed along I-20 in north Texas, some of which have been severe.

All of this activity has been driven by a very slow moving front that will eventually swing by the Brazos Valley. Once this happens, rain chances go up, and eventually the humidity levels will drop. Between then and now, we will have to closely watch how the front sets up and when it moves in.

What you need to know is that there are two sides to the front, and on each side, differing wind directions.

We happen to be on the south side, where its warm and very humid. On the other side, its much nicer.....cooler and less humid. In the middle, the warmer surface wind tends to move up and over the slightly cooler air to the north. Due to the rising motion of air along the front, clouds build and rain develops.

If all goes according to the plan, this front will move right over the Brazos Valley tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon and help focus rain in our neck of the woods.

 

What you need to know for tomorrow is that once the clouds begin to billow up, we need to keep an eye to the sky. Scattered thunderstorms will break out, delivering bouts of heavy rain, lightning, and even gusty winds on the order of 30-40mph. Good news here is that a majority of the storms should remain below severe limits, but one or two could become severe. Nonetheless, this will be a tricky forecast because it all depends on where the front exactly sets up. Where the front aligns, is were the heaviest rain will fall. At the moment, some models are hinting that this will be a widespread event with isolated locations picking up more than an inch of rain.

 

 

Don't take the above image verbatim, but as guidance that we will have areas of rain tomorrow. Overall, I will make sure to stay on top of this situation for you tomorrow and Thursday, as several showers could linger too. You can follow my updated on Facebook and Twitter as well as watch KAGS-HD News at 6pm & 10pm.

 

One more note: Bring your umbrellas with you to work, you will need it.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tropics Will Help Bring Some Needed Rain

Before moving down to Bryan/College Station, I worked in Bangor, Maine for a couple of years and remembered how long it took to get out of winter. For about 6 months out of the year, temperatures dipped below freezing and snow would fall, piling up on the sides of the road until it melted during the Spring. During this time, it was too cold to go outside for an extended period. We would take large blankets, wrap them around for warmth on the couch and crank up the heater. Sure it was fun to play in the snow, but when it came to shoveling, it was hard labor. The point here is that sometimes the weather can ware on us, especially if extreme conditions are the norm.

Here in Texas, we don't turn into icicles, but rather bake under a strong sun that can heat temperatures for months on end above 100°. No blankets needed here, just an ice cold lemonade or the air conditioner.

Recently, the heat has been a problem, and at times dangerous. Actual temperatures have hit 104°, with the Heat Index Value rising close to 110°. Its tough to be out in that type of weather, especially since this part of Texas needs some much needed rain. All we are hoping for is a change. Well then, a change is what we will receive.

As of this afternoon, an upper level low, rotating around the Bahamas is making a track towards the west.

On the satellite image above, this looks unimpressive, just a bunch of clouds with little organization. True, but there is enough "lift" and energy from this low that once it reaches the western edges of the Gulf of Mexico, rain will begin to spread into the Texas Coast and the Brazos Valley.

New computer guidance suggests that if we were to experience any rain, the best chance will come on Saturday, during the afternoon.

From there, this upper level low will move over north Mexico and take the energy with it and leave a few more lingering showers for Sunday.

Overall, this is the only chance at a change in our weather, as the long term models indicate another long stretch of blazing heat will begin again in the middle of next week. Any rain we get is good rain, but we need to break this heat. I will make sure to keep an eye on the weather for you and thank you for reading.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Dog Days of Summer = Prolonged Heat

If you thought the weekend was hot....oh boy....it's just starting. As the Dog Days of Summer settle in for the long haul, heat takes over this week and will create oppressive conditions outside. This is a pattern that just wont budge, and it continues to get hotter. Not only do we need to factor in the actual air temperature, but the relative humidity which calculates the Heat Index.

In order to examine the current weather pattern, we need to look at the upper level features, which seem to be stuck in place.

 

 

High pressure in the upper levels has slightly moved over the past 2 weeks, and even changed its orientation from time to time. However, this resilient summer high has restrengthened and will show its wrath this week. Not only will this set up block any rainfall, but most clouds and really heat us up.

 

 

As a meteorologist, the upper levels are so crucial, because what happens up there, tends to translate to our weather on the ground, especially temperatures during the summer. Sure, there will be some variation, based on what going on at the surface, the the upper level patterns are a good measure of the overall flow.

 

Anyway, due to this burly high in place, sinking air under the high will compress the air. In turn this dries, and heats air rapidly. Therefore, temperatures will be at 100° or higher over this work week. Plus, with the humidity levels in place, the Heat Index, or feels like temperature could approach 110° in a few locations. Due to this string of really hot weather make sure heat safety is a priority.

 

- Take breaks in a cool place.

- Limit outdoor activities.

- Stay hydrated.

- Wear loose, light colored clothes.

- Check on the elderly.

- Slap on plenty of sunscreen.

- Never leave kids or animals in your car for any length of time.

 

If you keep these tips in mind, you will be able to beat the heat.

 

On top of all of this heat streak, Burn Bans are in effect for a majority of the Brazos Valley. Outdoor burning is not recommended due to the lack of rainfall.

 

 

 

Finally, there is small chance for rain by the weekend. Ill keep my eye on the weather for you.



For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.