A Haunting Forecast Before Halloween With Buckets of Rain

For a state that has been desperate for rainfall, we have seen our fair share over the past 6 weeks. From the official reports at Easterwood Airport in College Station, 5.19" of rain fell in September, where an impressive 7.10" accumulated so far this month, with a whole lot more to come. From the latest forecast, its possible that Easterwood could end the month of October with nearly 10" of total rainfall. Last time 10" of rain was recorded in a month at Easterwood Airport, was in October of 2006, 12.89" accumulated. 

What we have going on are several meteorological dynamics coming together, namely moisture, and a lifting mechanism to generate all of these potential rain makers. First of all, the atmosphere has been loading up with moisture from a couple of sources over the past couple of days. At the surface, moisture is being drawn from the rich Gulf of Mexico, while the upper levels are being enhanced from Tropical Storm Raymond in the Pacific Ocean.

When the powerful low over the Rockies glides into the Plains, it will tap into all of this moisture, rapidly strengthen and begin a string of heavy rain and even severe weather. For the Brazos Valley, our main concern will be possible flooding because when it rains, it will come down at a fast clip in a short period of time. Plus, with a fairly saturated ground, any storms that produce strong wind gusts can easily bring down large trees and power lines.

Below is a timescale of how this whole event will unfold with our computer simulations.

Your commute on Wednesday morning should be dry. By lunchtime, several showers will pass by from time to time. Rain becomes more widespread with embedded thunderstorms by Wednesday evening. Overnight and into early Thursday morning, a cold front will edge closer bringing the knock out hit with very heavy rain and even the potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts over 60mph at times.

Wet weather should begin to move out by the early afternoon and trick or treating weather at this time looks fine. If changes do happen with this forecast, I will keep you in the loop. Nonetheless, the entire Brazos Valley will get soaked.

Overall, a general 2"-3" of rain will fall over most of the area with several isolated pockets picking up 4"-5". Due to all of this rain, make sure to stay in the know with the weather if there are any Flood Advisories posted or any Flash Flood Warnings. I will make sure to keep you up to date through the entire storm on-air, online, and on social media.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Devistation In Moore Oklahoma...Severe Threat Here Tomorrow

Words sometimes cannot even describe what has occurred in Oklahoma this afternoon. Utter devastation ripped though many communities as a large scaled severe weather event unfolded. Rain, hail, and monster tornadoes scared many lives and neighborhoods, especially in Moore, OK. Before this event, the people of Moore are very familiar with severe weather as one of the worst storms to ever occur happened back on May 3, 1999. An F-5 Tornado with winds around 318mph, leveled homes, buildings, and ripped up roads. The only positive to come of the May 3, 1999 tornado were a blossom of storm shelters built all across Oklahoma.

Nonetheless, the images were powerful this afternoon.

Image: Moore Tornado May 20, 2013 from KWTV

 

Above is a snapshot of the tornado from this afternoon in Moore, OK. Storm spotters estimated the width of the tornado around 1 mile wide, with wind speeds equivalent to an EF-4 or EF-5. Following the abatement of the tornado, the aftermath images would just shake you.

 

Image: NBC News, the aftermath of the Moore, OK

 

Homes destroyed, gas leaks creating fires, and many people losing everything they had. As a meteorologist, we wish we could control the weather to steer these type of storms away, but all we can do is report and try to inform as many as possible.

 

An additional thought comes to mind in how this tornado parallels the path of the 1999 storm. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Norman, OK put together a graphic, displaying how close the paths were.

 

Image: NWS Norman, OK. Path of 2013 and 1999 Moore, OK Tornadoes

 

 

The 1999 storm was an F-5 tornado, but the rating on today's storm will wait until the NWS surveys the damage.

 

What we have to be concerned about tomorrow is that the severe weather will shift into the Brazos Valley. Up front, I can tell you that there is a small tornado threat here, but the atmospheric condition does not favor large, long tracking tornadoes. Furthermore, the highest chance for large tornadoes will likely occur from northeast Texas to Arkansas.

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK has placed the entire Brazos Valley under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather tomorrow, with parts of Leon County and points to the northeast under a "Moderate Risk."

 

Our set up for severe weather features a cold front to our north and west, along with a tropical flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

We see this all the time, but the true kicker to generating powerful storms lays in the upper levels. The jet stream along with other mid-level features create a strong enough wind to "tilt" individual thunderstorms. In other words, this upper level wind will allow storms to grow stronger and live longer. Therefore, strong winds, large hail, and even tornadoes become a concern when these type of conditions come together.

 

 

As the cold front moves closer and interacts with the daytime heating, clouds will begin to bubble up and severe weather will begin to break out.

 

Here is what we can expect here.

 

-Storms develop late in the afternoon Tuesday.

-Storms will continue into the night.

-Strongest storms will be to our northeast.

-Low threat of flash flooding.

-High threat of strong damaging wind.

-Moderate threat of large hail.

-Low threat of an isolated tornado.

 

Make sure to be weather aware tomorrow, and I will make sure to get as much information out to you on-air and online as well. Just make sure to get indoors if you see a storm approach, or you hear any thunder.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.