Devastating North Texas Tornado Outbreak

From: The Texas Chaos Storm Team

Last evenings events were hard to think about and very tough to track. It wasn't the quantity of tornadoes that made this a news headline, but rather the quality of each individual thunderstorm. Many areas in north Texas, around the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex were rattled by widespread severe thunderstorms. In particular, there were two towns that were hit the hardest: Granbury and Cleburn.

The original atmospheric set up did not call for such destruction. However, as the afternoon and evening wore on, the combination of an upper level low pressure system, low level heat & humidity, as well as a quick moving jet stream, came together to hash out this event. The key was the upper level low. While it was spinning over west Texas, the low was quite disorganized. However, during it's move to north Texas, the circulation became tighter and strengthening was the result. Along with the strengthening low, very cold air was associated in the upper levels, allowing for thunderstorms to grow higher, and in turn become severe with large hail, strong wind and generating tornadoes.

Some of the images were just stunning. Check out this picture of hail in Ganbury, TX that I found on facebook last night.

From spike to spike, the hail stone measures approximately 4" in diameter. That's equivalent to an average grapefruit. I cannot image something like this falling from the sky. What this illustrates is that the updraft (or upward motion) in the thunderstorm was so strong that it could support the weight and growth of this monster. The updraft speed must have been over 100mph to keep this suspended for a long period of time before crashing down to the ground.

Not only was the above picture incredible, but what meteorologists were able to view on Doppler Radar. Looking at the structure of the precipitation was a good indication that rotation was occuring in two different supercells just joust of the Metroplex last night.

 

If you took this image for what its worth, you would think that these were rotating supercells that look like prolific lightning, rain, and hail producers. But if you take a deeper look at the "Doppler" part of the radar, you will notice a tight circulation in the "velocity" image (illustrating speed and direction of the wind).

 

 

Here, you are looking at the southern cell that ripped though Granbury and Cleburn. This is a velocity image that helped to pinpoint the location of strongest rotation, or where the tornado was spinning. Green colors denote wind moving towards the radar site, while red shows wind moving away from the radar site. When you get these green and red colors tightly together, we call this a "couplet," indicating that there is a strong rotation in the storm with a possible tornado. Its these images on radar that support a Tornado Warning issued by the National Weather Service. Unfortunately, a radar cannot see what is happening on the ground, therefore, storm spotters, and law enforcement are extremely important in reporting whether there is a tornado or not. In this case, there was and for a time, this tornado was reported to be one-mile wide while in Granbury.

 

Overall, this was a very destructive event that unfolded last night and at this time the National Weather Service (NWS) in Ft. Worth is assessing each storm where a tornado was reported. Based on the damage in each area, the NWS will qualify whether a damage was from a tornado or not. If damage was from a tornado, it will be rated based on the Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF-Scale).

 

 

Because the wind was not directly measured during each storm, the rating is used as an estimation of how strong the winds were. From the survey, the NWS will say, "it will take this wind speed to cause this type of damage." Based on that estimated wind speed, an EF rating will be placed on that particular tornado.

 

From this morning and afternoon's survey, the NWS has rated a couple of tornadoes already. Each of the following assessments are for individual tornadoes.

 

Cleburn: EF-3 tornado with max winds of 140mph, and a width of 0.6 miles.

 

Granbury: EF-4 tornado ----preliminary

 

Cleburn: EF-0, minor damage with a max wind of 85mph.

 

For the other reports, you can click here to see the latest from the National Weather Service. As of this afternoon, there are preliminary 10 reports of tornadoes from last night. This number can change.

 

In closing, this was a horrific event with many reports of destroyed homes, injuries, and fatalities. When the weather looks like its going to take a turn for the worse, make sure to use your resources to stay in the loop. Your mobile devise, computer, tablet, and television are the best ways to know whats going on. Additionally, buying a NOAA Weather radio will instantly let you know if severe weather will threaten your location. Finally, your local television meteorologist will always give you the newest information so you and your family can make the safest decision.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

 

 

From Drought To Rain Overload

For the most part of 2013, a majority of the the Brazos Valley, and in fact a big chunk of Texas has dug into a deeper drought. Several storms were able to dump an immaculate amount of rain, but as we know best, we are a "feast or famine," part of the country. Either its prolonged dry spells, or quick splashes of rain. However, last weeks event which occurred from Thursday to Friday was a true treat and invigorated our soils.

Take a look at where we started before last weeks events. The following image is from the latest Drought Monitor Report that is uploaded weekly by the USDA and NOAA.

Yikes! Most of the Brazos Valley during last Thursday's report is currently under a Severe Drought, with several areas outlined as an Extreme Drought. You don't even have to look at this image to know whats going on. Lawns have gone from a vibrant flush green, to dried out, brown weeds. Plus, for the year of 2013, Easterwood Airport's climate report noted we were a solid 3.50"+ below average.  Nevertheless, three soaking rounds of rain were able to pick up our spirits.

According to Easterwood Airport, in a 48 hour period, and incredible 4.43" of rain fell. This brings the yearly total to 13.97", and turns the 3.50" deficit into a minor surplus compared to average. Furthermore, there were several locations across the Brazos Valley, especially in Madison County which picked up close to 6.00" or rain during the same period. As good as it was to see a heap of wet weather, minor flooding caused problems all around the region. Nonetheless, I am sure there will be a huge swing from the current Drought Monitor to the new report that comes out Thursday morning.

If you thought we were done with the rain for now.....hold your horses, another dose is on the way. This time around, the rain will not be as widespread and as heavy as last week. What we are watching is an upper level feature over the northwest side of Mexico.

Slowly, but surly, this feature will rotate into Texas and spawn several showers as well as a few thunderstorms. Timing at the moment looks generally around Tuesday night and into Wednesday, with the best chance of rain coming in Wednesday. A few of these storms could have a period of brief heavy rainfall, and severe weather will no be part of the picture. Just make sure to have the umbrellas ready. In addition, by the end of the week and into the weekend, expect the temperatures to rise to levels we have not experienced yet this year......90s may be coming soon!!!!


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Possible Severe Weather Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, but incredible heat fronted the headlines this afternoon. This morning, the official low temperature only managed to dip to 69°, which happens to be a new record high, minimum temperature for the date. The old record was 67° from 1999. Additionally, with aid of sunshine, the mercury soared into the 80s, and broke a record high temperature. Officially from Easterwood Field, the high temperature eclipsed 82°, breaking the old record from 1982 and 2002 of 79°. Despite a lack of rainfall and storms today, breaking two temperature records along with 30mph+ winds make for a conversation starter around the water-cooler. Yet, there will be rain and several strong storms in our area soon.

At the moment, an area of low pressure swirling on the lee-side of the Colorado Rockies will be the focal point for generating strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas though the Mid-West. This is the same body of low pressure cranking up the wind here today and tomorrow. Over the next 24-36 hours, the center of low pressure should move out of the Rockies, into northern Oklahoma and towards Missouri. Plus, a cold front will hang back and swing though the Brazos Valley as well as most of Texas tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of this front, the air is much warmer than average, and there is plenty of moisture continuing to stream from the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the set ingredients in play, and a dynamic cold front will produce a line of thunderstorms with the possibility of damaging winds.

Aloft, winds at the jet stream level will be so powerful, there will be a possibility of tornadoes here, with a much better chance for tornadic activity in northern Louisiana, Arkansas and western Mississippi. Whats important to know here with the jet stream diagram to the left, the wind at the surface and 30,000 feet above the surface are basically lined up in the same direction. In other words, the tornado threat will be minimal, but any storms that form, have the capability of carrying these stronger winds aloft, and bring them to the surface. Therefore, some of the strongest thunderstorms will likely plow though with winds gusting over 60mph at times. Furthermore, after analyzing the newest data coming in, hail will be possible with a few storms as well. However, in order for hail to form, updrafts need to be strong. In order for this to occur, enough sun need to come out tomorrow to intensify destabilization. 

Overall, timing of this event should be between 3pm and 9pm Tuesday afternoon/evening. Exact Trac pans out the strongest storms slicing though the heart of the viewing area around 6pm. Even before the strongest storms move in, areas of rain will make the roads wet for the evening commute. Make sure to ease up on the roads and give yourself several extra minutes to make it safe to your destination. Following the frontal passage and line of storms, drier, cooler air will begin to seep in. 80° temperatures will take a break Wednesday as more realistic weather for this time of the year will settle in for a few days. Also, low temperatures Wednesday night could slide down into the 30s.

This will not be a huge severe weather outbreak, but keep in mind that there will be strong thunderstorms around tomorrow afternoon. Nonetheless, the Brazos Valley will receive widespread rainfall. Most areas will pick up 1/4" of rain with isolated locations picking up nearly 1" in stronger storms. 

I will make sure to keep you up to date as storms erupt.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Is Winter Gone?

Officially, Winter has about two additional months before Spring arrives. So no, winter is not gone technically....well at least in parts of the US. However, with the recent pattern of sunshine, and well above average temperatures, if feels like Winter is a distant memory. Its either that, or we are experiencing quite a generous January thaw.

While the Texas sun warms us up, a true arctic blast has moved into areas along the northern Plains, Great Lakes as well as the Northeast. This is some of the coldest air many areas have felt since 2009. Not only are temperatures struggling to reach 0° from Minnesota to northern Maine, but a ferocious wind takes wind chill (or feels like) values down between -30° and -50°. This is a dangerous outbreak that will persist for several days, with additional waves of cold air coming according to several long term computer models such as the highly regarded European model.

What we can see from the incoming data is that the jet stream is aligned in a way where a deep trough covers the east, while on the other side of the country a strong ridge is building out west. Meteorologically, we call this type of pattern meridional. In other words, the wind flow in the upper levels tend to have a north-south orientation which corresponds to lines of longitude, in turn following the Prime Meridian. Furthermore, the atmosphere is always looking to stay in a state of equilibrium, or balance. If one area is hot, another area will be cold, to balance out extremes. There are many other factors, but those are the basics.

Anyway, the jet stream took a large dip over the eastern United States, which opened up the gates for colder air from Canada to move right in.

Over the next 7 days, the current trogh over the eastern U.S. will tend to lift and allow a strong ridge from the west build in over the central Plains.

For us, that leaves the Brazos Valley in the bulls-eye for tranquil weather and above average warmth. Therefore, we can expect a few areas of fog early in the morning, with sun and temperatures in the 70s during the day. Temperatures should peak into the middle 70s by Thursday before our next cold front cools down the air temporarily. Enjoy the outdoors, and despite a low sun angle this time of year, make sure to slap on some sunscreen for added protection.

Its always nice to have beautiful weather like this during the winter, but we need more rain to help the drought across the Lone Star State. Ill keep you updated.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A Texas Sized Rain Storm, Severe Storms Too

If you remember around this time last year, the drought was so bad, that even if you watered your lawn, it would stay brown. However, a storm late in January 2012 brought tremendous rainfall, flooding and even severe weather. It was this storm that began a chain of wet weather events to helping to turn the brown into a beautiful lush green. Another event is setting us as I write this that will hammer the entire viewing area, and in fact most of Texas with a wall of water.

At the moment, there are two main features with this next storm, a low-pressure center at the surface, and another in the upper levels. During this blog, we will concentrate on the low-pressure center at the surface. As of Monday afternoon, the center of low pressure resides in north Mexico with a movement towards the east. By Tuesday afternoon, the center of this storm will slide into south Texas. At this time, intense strengthening will take place, and widespread rain will take shape. 

Along the east side of this storm, a warm front will extend from south Texas to the upper Texas coastline. Ahead of the front there will be a shield of widespread rain with several embedded thunderstorms. In the meteorological world, we call this type of set up, "overrunning precipitation." Where the warm air aloft runs over the cooler air at the surface. Therefore the air lifts, condenses and creates precipitation. During this time, you will notice pockets of light rain early in the day Tuesday, with steadier, heavier rainfall by the afternoon and evening. But here is where the scenario gets interesting. The body of low pressure will move basically due north.

As the low moves north from Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, we will be in an area called the "warm sector." This is an area between the warm and cold front. Temperatures will rise though Wednesday morning, but this also puts the Brazos Valley in a location favorable for severe thunderstorms. Within this region, winds at the ground and aloft tend to have different speeds and directions, plus there tends to be additional instability. In other words, there could be a few storms that create winds greater than 58mph, large hail, and even a tornado. Furthermore, in this zone, rain will come down even harder on Wednesday than what we experience ahead of the warm front on Tuesday.

When it comes to the risk of tornadoes, data shows that the tornado risk will be small. I cannot rule out a few isolated weak tornadoes, but the dynamics of this particular storm do not favor a huge outbreak. Nonetheless, I will keep my eyes peeled throughout the entire storm and keep you in the loop on Twitter, Facebook and On-air.

What we will all remember from this event will be the tremendous rainfall and possible flooding. Because the center of low pressure will move due north from south Texas from Tuesday to Wednesday, rain will fall over the same areas for a 36 hour period. By the end of this, some locations could pick up nearly 6"-7" of rain. Below is one computer models projection on general rainfall amounts from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Again, this will be the general amounts received with pockets of higher totals. Due to the strong confidence in  this rain event, the National Weather Service out of Houston decided to slap on a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for all of southeast Texas from 12PM Tuesday until 12AM Thursday.

Considering the extend of heavy rainfall, I would not be surprised if this WATCH were to be extended into portions of north and central Texas. 

Overall, the simplify things, here is what you need to know:

Tuesday: Light rain becomes heavy during the evening and several thunderstorms will be around.

Wednesday Morning: Rain becomes heavier, thunderstorms could be severe with a small threat of tornadoes.

Wednesday Evening: The storm lifts north and we gradually dry out.

Impacts: Widespread 3"-5" rainfall total with a few locations picking up nearly 7". Flooding will be a concern, along with isolated severe thunderstorms.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Wintry Weather In The Brazos Valley?

***Note: I apologize for the lack of images. A few technical difficulties need to be worked out with Blogger. I hope to fix these problems soon.***

Once in a while, the Brazos Valley will welcome Old Man Winter to come and stay. Jack Frost has already paid us several visits with a multitude of cold shots from Canada. On average, this area experiences some sort of frozen precipitation falling from the sky every 2 years. In a 5-10 year window, snow or ice will accumulate once according to climate records. Nonetheless, though ice and snow cause hazardous driving conditions, its a treat to see a rare sight.

At the moment, we have several key elements in play that could help produce light frozen precipitation overnight and early Friday morning. Before I get into the details I would like to mention upfront that this will be no big deal and the roads across the entire viewing area should be fine.

In order for this to work correctly, we need a helping of cold air, and a disturbance to generate precipitation.

You might have noticed how chilly its been lately with temperatures hovering 10-20 degrees below average during the day and around the freezing point at night. High pressure to our north and north west pushed in air from Canada, locking in the chill. Not only are temperatures cold at the surface, but aloft as well. That's good if you want snow or sleet.

Additionally, an upper level disturbance sits to our west which has already caused havoc in west Texas. Areas from El Paso to Kerrville have reported snow. The most interesting reports came from Guadeloupe Pass in Pine Springs, TX. Pockets of heavy snow and gusts near 50mph have been spotted. With reduced visibilities, Pine Springs has had moments of blizzard-like conditions.

The same disturbance will move into northwest Texas and eventually though Oklahoma. During this time, pockets of light precipitation will fall across the Brazos Valley. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the path of low-pressure does not favor widespread snow for us. However, with cold air in place and arrangement of temperatures in the upper levels, there is a possibility of light sleet or even a few snowflakes that could fall from the sky.

Mainly, this will be a light rain event, but from time to time, you might see an ice pellet or wet snowflake. Any frozen precipitation that falls will melt when it comes into contact with the ground. Therefore, I do not expect any ice accumulations on the roads. Just make sure to keep it easy tonight and tomorrow as some roads could be wet.

Overall, this will not be a big deal, but something to be aware of. Maybe down the pike there could be some snow in our future. For now, keep your eyes to the sky.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.