A Haunting Forecast Before Halloween With Buckets of Rain

For a state that has been desperate for rainfall, we have seen our fair share over the past 6 weeks. From the official reports at Easterwood Airport in College Station, 5.19" of rain fell in September, where an impressive 7.10" accumulated so far this month, with a whole lot more to come. From the latest forecast, its possible that Easterwood could end the month of October with nearly 10" of total rainfall. Last time 10" of rain was recorded in a month at Easterwood Airport, was in October of 2006, 12.89" accumulated. 

What we have going on are several meteorological dynamics coming together, namely moisture, and a lifting mechanism to generate all of these potential rain makers. First of all, the atmosphere has been loading up with moisture from a couple of sources over the past couple of days. At the surface, moisture is being drawn from the rich Gulf of Mexico, while the upper levels are being enhanced from Tropical Storm Raymond in the Pacific Ocean.

When the powerful low over the Rockies glides into the Plains, it will tap into all of this moisture, rapidly strengthen and begin a string of heavy rain and even severe weather. For the Brazos Valley, our main concern will be possible flooding because when it rains, it will come down at a fast clip in a short period of time. Plus, with a fairly saturated ground, any storms that produce strong wind gusts can easily bring down large trees and power lines.

Below is a timescale of how this whole event will unfold with our computer simulations.

Your commute on Wednesday morning should be dry. By lunchtime, several showers will pass by from time to time. Rain becomes more widespread with embedded thunderstorms by Wednesday evening. Overnight and into early Thursday morning, a cold front will edge closer bringing the knock out hit with very heavy rain and even the potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts over 60mph at times.

Wet weather should begin to move out by the early afternoon and trick or treating weather at this time looks fine. If changes do happen with this forecast, I will keep you in the loop. Nonetheless, the entire Brazos Valley will get soaked.

Overall, a general 2"-3" of rain will fall over most of the area with several isolated pockets picking up 4"-5". Due to all of this rain, make sure to stay in the know with the weather if there are any Flood Advisories posted or any Flash Flood Warnings. I will make sure to keep you up to date through the entire storm on-air, online, and on social media.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Heat Is The #1 Killer

                                                                                                                                  

  www.readywisconsin.wi.gov

As we all know, the summer gets extremely hot here in Texas. Temperatures rise as high as 105°, and when the humidity is factored in, it could feel as hot as 115° through the Brazos Valley. During a long day of farming, construction work, or gardening it can get brutal out there, but if you take the necessary safety steps you will be able to beat the heat.

The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) released a report on weather related fatalities based on different phenomenon. From hurricanes, tornadoes, lightning, floods, and heat related deaths, heat came out as the number one killer on average over the past 10 years. According to NOAA, 117 deaths have occurred each year on average from 2003-2012 directly to heat. That’s more than flooding (76) and lightning (35) associated fatalities combine.

 

As a meteorologist, I understand it gets redundant that we mention to stay cool and hydrated, but there is a meaningful reason behind it listed above.

In order to minimize the opportunity for heat exhaustion or even stroke to develop you can follow several simple tips. Know that official recorded temperatures are reported in the shade. In direct sunlight, add 10° to 15°. Make sure to drink plenty of water, cold water is best, but no matter the temperature, staying hydrated is key. Additionally, make sure there is a place that is cool nearby to take frequent breaks if you are outdoors for an extended period of time. For any runners out there, it’s best to exercise before dawn and after dusk. Finally, if you are feeling dizzy, weak, sweating heavily, nauseous, or even sensing you might faint, stop what you are doing immediately and move indoors where the air conditioning will cool you down.

If you use these simple tips though the summer season, you will be able to battle heat, even at its worst. On one more note, don’t forget to slap on plenty of sunscreen too.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

HEAT Streak Comes To An End Soon

We still have several more days of intense heat across the region, however, the tides will turn in our favor. With temperatures around 100° the past two days, and heat index levels (or feels like temperatures) around 105°, we are due for some much needed relief. Good news, we will get some relief by the end of the upcoming weekend.

Before we chat about the future, note the current situation.

Areas from west Texas to the Desert Southwest are baking with 100°+ readings, while cooler air lurks in the Northeast. The air temperatures are controlled by an upper level high in combination with the jet stream.

The jet stream is the true divide between the hot stuff and not so hot stuff. However, under the high pressure done lies the hottest air. In fact, as the high strengthens and shifts west over the weekend, areas in the southern California Desert (such as Death Valley) will have air temperatures approach 120°-125°. Its summertime and searing heat like that can happen in the desert, but WOW, that's baking.

Anyway, the high will shift westward with time, through the weekend and into next week, taking the really hot stuff away from the Brazos Valley.

 

When this shift happens, the jet stream will respond by orienting more in a north to south direction. Therefore, slightly cooler air will infiltrate the Brazos Valley, and additional moisture will return from the Gulf of Mexico. When you put this all together, the 100° weather will move out, more clouds will reduce the amount of searing sunshine, and the possibility of rain will come back as well.

 

Overall, expect it to be hot through Saturday. By Sunday, better changes begin to arrive :) 

 

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tropical Update: Besides Cosme, All Is Tranquil

Temperatures are soaring here in the Brazos Valley as we embark on our first period of 100° days. Its just a sign that Summer really is here and its going to stick around for a while. On the other hand, this also a time where the tropics begin to show signs of additional activity.

Out in the Pacific Ocean, Cosme became a Tropical Storm and as of this afternoon strengthened into a low end category 1 Hurricane.

Winds are sustained reaching 75 mph at the core of the storm with occasional gusts of 90mph. Some additional strengthening will occur, but in the long run, this is a storm that will move out into the open waters, away from land and dissipate.

It wont take long, but by the weekend, Cosme will most likely become a mass of clouds dropping heavy rain.

Besides the Pacific, this time of year, we keep a close eye on the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico for tropical formations that could impact Texas and the remainder of the United States. I can tell you at this time, all is quiet, not a storm in sight.

 

As new information arrives and new storms form, I will make sure to keep you in the loop. In the meantime, stay cool and hydrated as the scorching heat has arrived.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Summer Strong, Drought Strong: Focus on Robertson County

 

www.letthedogin.com

Summer is a typical time to take prolonged vacations, dips in the pool, and plenty of mouthwatering BBQ. However, this is a time where our minds are pointed towards one thing, the weather. Aside from watching the tropics, as this is currently Hurricane Season, long term dry spells translate to poor crop growth.

Given heat builds in the mid-section of the country rapidly this time of the year, the jet stream, or highway for large storms, tend to move well north of Texas. In other words, big rain makers on a consistent basis stray away from us during the summer season. Therefore, drought conditions tend to get worse quickly from June through the end of August.

As of the latest drought monitor report, southern Robertson County is under Moderate Drought conditions, while areas north of Hearne are drier and categorized as a Severe Drought. Sure our lawns are not as green as they could be, but this time two years ago, it was much worse. All of Robertson County and in fact most of Texas (70.61%) were facing Exceptional Drought conditions, the worst possible category of drought.

 

 

    Current Report: June 18, 2013                                         Past Report: June 21, 2011

 

 

Rains from 2012, and early this year have helped, but the current weather pattern will bring back some memories of two years ago. An upper level ridge of high pressure situated to our east will build over Texas and eventually to our west over a two week period. Therefore sunshine, heat, and humidity will dominate our weather with little to no rain at all. Depending on the evolution of this ridge, dry conditions could last an additional 1-2 weeks. Unless there is a swing in the tide or the tropics begin to activate prepare for a prolonged spell of dry weather as Summer is coming on strong.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Summertime Stretch Coming Right Up

Its hard to believe that the final day of Spring is coming up tomorrow. Once the clock strikes 12:04am on Friday, the Summer Solstice will kick start the official season of sizzle. For us here in the Brazos Valley, that means several extended periods of consistent weather with quiet, hot, and humid days. The key to most summers in Texas is a lack of rainfall.

As upper level ridges strengthen, storms tend to move well north of us. Rain does fall from time to time, but the overall scenario features dry weather. Recently, several showers have danced around Aggieland, but that trend will change later in the week.

In the upper levels a strong high will begin to dominate as the jet stream hangs well north.

.

With this being the case, storms tend to ride along the jet stream.

Several small disturbances moving into Texas is not out of the question, or even a few showers coming in off the Gulf. However, the overall pattern favors a long stretch of hot, dry weather through the weekend and into next week.

Stay cool out there and you can always join KAGS-HD for the latest.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Heat Begins To Takeover

andforpoorer.com

 

OK....the image was just for effect, but the weather is going to sizzle. Despite a great weekend with low humidity and some early morning rain Sunday, this week is going to be a lot different. A ridge in the upper levels of the atmosphere will take over and build from the Desert Southwest.

 

Eventually this searing ridge of high pressure will settle in the Central Plains and bake most of Texas. With this type of upper level pattern, you can expect similar weather each and everyday through the weekend. Therefore, the sun will be beating down on you, humidity levels will rise, and temperatures will hit the upper 90s to near 100°. Even if we don't hit 100°, it will feel like it when you add in the humidity.

 

Since this will be the first prolonged stretch of really hot weather, make sure to stay safe. Slop on plenty of sunscreen throughout the day if you are outdoors, keep hydrated, and take brakes often in the air conditioning. Finally, never leave your pets in the car.  

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

The Moore, OK Tornado: Fujita Scale vs. Enhanced Fujita Scale

Heart breaking images rooted from the extreme damage following the Moore, OK tornado earlier this week. Same occurred in Granbury, TX just a week prior. I personally cannot even imagine being in the middle of such a devastating phenomenon.

Looking at the Moore, OK tornado a bit closer, this twister cut a 17-mile path and was 1.3 miles wide at its max. Additionally, due to the damage following the National Weather Service (NWS) survey, the tornado was rated an EF-5 with winds estimated between 200-210mph.

Image: www.cnn.com

If you are not familiar with the EF-Scale, it is the scale used based on post-storm damage to rate the strength of a tornado. EF-Scale is also known as the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which was implemented on February 1, 2007. This new scale more closely represents the estimated wind speed from the tornado based on the damage it creates from the advancements in the science of physics and engineering. There are six categories that range from EF-0 to EF-5.

Note the estimated wind speed increased with and increased rating. However, if the Moore, OK tornado occurred before this new scale was revealed, it would not be rated an F-5 or even an F-4.....interesting to fathom.

Dr. Tetsuya Fujita in collaboration with Allen Pearson, introduced the original Fujita Scale back in 1971 to rate the intensity of tornadoes. The following illustrated the wind speeds from the original Fujita Scale.

F-0: 40-72mph

F-1: 73-112mph

F-2: 113-157mph

F-3: 158-206mph

F-4: 207-260mph

F-5: 261-318mph

If the Moore, OK tornado from this past week was scaled on the original F-Scale it would be in range with a high end F-3 and maybe low end F-4. On the other hand, the May 3, 1999 tornado that crossed paths with Moore, OK was a true F-5 with winds estimated over 300mph.

Its interesting to note how we perceive the weather based on scales, and numbers, especially when the same scale was drastically changed.

No matter how strong or "weak" a tornado is, always take a Tornado Watch or Warning seriously and make sure to have a safety plan in place. Tornadoes are monsters and can cause catastrophic damage.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Devistation In Moore Oklahoma...Severe Threat Here Tomorrow

Words sometimes cannot even describe what has occurred in Oklahoma this afternoon. Utter devastation ripped though many communities as a large scaled severe weather event unfolded. Rain, hail, and monster tornadoes scared many lives and neighborhoods, especially in Moore, OK. Before this event, the people of Moore are very familiar with severe weather as one of the worst storms to ever occur happened back on May 3, 1999. An F-5 Tornado with winds around 318mph, leveled homes, buildings, and ripped up roads. The only positive to come of the May 3, 1999 tornado were a blossom of storm shelters built all across Oklahoma.

Nonetheless, the images were powerful this afternoon.

Image: Moore Tornado May 20, 2013 from KWTV

 

Above is a snapshot of the tornado from this afternoon in Moore, OK. Storm spotters estimated the width of the tornado around 1 mile wide, with wind speeds equivalent to an EF-4 or EF-5. Following the abatement of the tornado, the aftermath images would just shake you.

 

Image: NBC News, the aftermath of the Moore, OK

 

Homes destroyed, gas leaks creating fires, and many people losing everything they had. As a meteorologist, we wish we could control the weather to steer these type of storms away, but all we can do is report and try to inform as many as possible.

 

An additional thought comes to mind in how this tornado parallels the path of the 1999 storm. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Norman, OK put together a graphic, displaying how close the paths were.

 

Image: NWS Norman, OK. Path of 2013 and 1999 Moore, OK Tornadoes

 

 

The 1999 storm was an F-5 tornado, but the rating on today's storm will wait until the NWS surveys the damage.

 

What we have to be concerned about tomorrow is that the severe weather will shift into the Brazos Valley. Up front, I can tell you that there is a small tornado threat here, but the atmospheric condition does not favor large, long tracking tornadoes. Furthermore, the highest chance for large tornadoes will likely occur from northeast Texas to Arkansas.

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK has placed the entire Brazos Valley under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather tomorrow, with parts of Leon County and points to the northeast under a "Moderate Risk."

 

Our set up for severe weather features a cold front to our north and west, along with a tropical flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

We see this all the time, but the true kicker to generating powerful storms lays in the upper levels. The jet stream along with other mid-level features create a strong enough wind to "tilt" individual thunderstorms. In other words, this upper level wind will allow storms to grow stronger and live longer. Therefore, strong winds, large hail, and even tornadoes become a concern when these type of conditions come together.

 

 

As the cold front moves closer and interacts with the daytime heating, clouds will begin to bubble up and severe weather will begin to break out.

 

Here is what we can expect here.

 

-Storms develop late in the afternoon Tuesday.

-Storms will continue into the night.

-Strongest storms will be to our northeast.

-Low threat of flash flooding.

-High threat of strong damaging wind.

-Moderate threat of large hail.

-Low threat of an isolated tornado.

 

Make sure to be weather aware tomorrow, and I will make sure to get as much information out to you on-air and online as well. Just make sure to get indoors if you see a storm approach, or you hear any thunder.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Devastating North Texas Tornado Outbreak

From: The Texas Chaos Storm Team

Last evenings events were hard to think about and very tough to track. It wasn't the quantity of tornadoes that made this a news headline, but rather the quality of each individual thunderstorm. Many areas in north Texas, around the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex were rattled by widespread severe thunderstorms. In particular, there were two towns that were hit the hardest: Granbury and Cleburn.

The original atmospheric set up did not call for such destruction. However, as the afternoon and evening wore on, the combination of an upper level low pressure system, low level heat & humidity, as well as a quick moving jet stream, came together to hash out this event. The key was the upper level low. While it was spinning over west Texas, the low was quite disorganized. However, during it's move to north Texas, the circulation became tighter and strengthening was the result. Along with the strengthening low, very cold air was associated in the upper levels, allowing for thunderstorms to grow higher, and in turn become severe with large hail, strong wind and generating tornadoes.

Some of the images were just stunning. Check out this picture of hail in Ganbury, TX that I found on facebook last night.

From spike to spike, the hail stone measures approximately 4" in diameter. That's equivalent to an average grapefruit. I cannot image something like this falling from the sky. What this illustrates is that the updraft (or upward motion) in the thunderstorm was so strong that it could support the weight and growth of this monster. The updraft speed must have been over 100mph to keep this suspended for a long period of time before crashing down to the ground.

Not only was the above picture incredible, but what meteorologists were able to view on Doppler Radar. Looking at the structure of the precipitation was a good indication that rotation was occuring in two different supercells just joust of the Metroplex last night.

 

If you took this image for what its worth, you would think that these were rotating supercells that look like prolific lightning, rain, and hail producers. But if you take a deeper look at the "Doppler" part of the radar, you will notice a tight circulation in the "velocity" image (illustrating speed and direction of the wind).

 

 

Here, you are looking at the southern cell that ripped though Granbury and Cleburn. This is a velocity image that helped to pinpoint the location of strongest rotation, or where the tornado was spinning. Green colors denote wind moving towards the radar site, while red shows wind moving away from the radar site. When you get these green and red colors tightly together, we call this a "couplet," indicating that there is a strong rotation in the storm with a possible tornado. Its these images on radar that support a Tornado Warning issued by the National Weather Service. Unfortunately, a radar cannot see what is happening on the ground, therefore, storm spotters, and law enforcement are extremely important in reporting whether there is a tornado or not. In this case, there was and for a time, this tornado was reported to be one-mile wide while in Granbury.

 

Overall, this was a very destructive event that unfolded last night and at this time the National Weather Service (NWS) in Ft. Worth is assessing each storm where a tornado was reported. Based on the damage in each area, the NWS will qualify whether a damage was from a tornado or not. If damage was from a tornado, it will be rated based on the Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF-Scale).

 

 

Because the wind was not directly measured during each storm, the rating is used as an estimation of how strong the winds were. From the survey, the NWS will say, "it will take this wind speed to cause this type of damage." Based on that estimated wind speed, an EF rating will be placed on that particular tornado.

 

From this morning and afternoon's survey, the NWS has rated a couple of tornadoes already. Each of the following assessments are for individual tornadoes.

 

Cleburn: EF-3 tornado with max winds of 140mph, and a width of 0.6 miles.

 

Granbury: EF-4 tornado ----preliminary

 

Cleburn: EF-0, minor damage with a max wind of 85mph.

 

For the other reports, you can click here to see the latest from the National Weather Service. As of this afternoon, there are preliminary 10 reports of tornadoes from last night. This number can change.

 

In closing, this was a horrific event with many reports of destroyed homes, injuries, and fatalities. When the weather looks like its going to take a turn for the worse, make sure to use your resources to stay in the loop. Your mobile devise, computer, tablet, and television are the best ways to know whats going on. Additionally, buying a NOAA Weather radio will instantly let you know if severe weather will threaten your location. Finally, your local television meteorologist will always give you the newest information so you and your family can make the safest decision.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

 

 

From Drought To Rain Overload

For the most part of 2013, a majority of the the Brazos Valley, and in fact a big chunk of Texas has dug into a deeper drought. Several storms were able to dump an immaculate amount of rain, but as we know best, we are a "feast or famine," part of the country. Either its prolonged dry spells, or quick splashes of rain. However, last weeks event which occurred from Thursday to Friday was a true treat and invigorated our soils.

Take a look at where we started before last weeks events. The following image is from the latest Drought Monitor Report that is uploaded weekly by the USDA and NOAA.

Yikes! Most of the Brazos Valley during last Thursday's report is currently under a Severe Drought, with several areas outlined as an Extreme Drought. You don't even have to look at this image to know whats going on. Lawns have gone from a vibrant flush green, to dried out, brown weeds. Plus, for the year of 2013, Easterwood Airport's climate report noted we were a solid 3.50"+ below average.  Nevertheless, three soaking rounds of rain were able to pick up our spirits.

According to Easterwood Airport, in a 48 hour period, and incredible 4.43" of rain fell. This brings the yearly total to 13.97", and turns the 3.50" deficit into a minor surplus compared to average. Furthermore, there were several locations across the Brazos Valley, especially in Madison County which picked up close to 6.00" or rain during the same period. As good as it was to see a heap of wet weather, minor flooding caused problems all around the region. Nonetheless, I am sure there will be a huge swing from the current Drought Monitor to the new report that comes out Thursday morning.

If you thought we were done with the rain for now.....hold your horses, another dose is on the way. This time around, the rain will not be as widespread and as heavy as last week. What we are watching is an upper level feature over the northwest side of Mexico.

Slowly, but surly, this feature will rotate into Texas and spawn several showers as well as a few thunderstorms. Timing at the moment looks generally around Tuesday night and into Wednesday, with the best chance of rain coming in Wednesday. A few of these storms could have a period of brief heavy rainfall, and severe weather will no be part of the picture. Just make sure to have the umbrellas ready. In addition, by the end of the week and into the weekend, expect the temperatures to rise to levels we have not experienced yet this year......90s may be coming soon!!!!


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



From Records To Reality

www.timesfreepresss.com

 

The beginning of May has been a struggle to get through if you are not a fan of the chill. However, the weather will get back to normal real soon and rain will move in closer to the weekend.

Nonetheless, whether you like the chill or not, its been an impressive start to May. The core of cold air was so deep that five mornings in a row began in the 40s, with four consecutive days either tying or breaking a record.

Check out the following lows officially reported at Easterwood Airport from Thursday to this morning.

Thursday Morning May 2: 47°

Friday Morning May 3: 43° (new record)

Saturday Morning May 4: 42° (tied a record for the day and lowest temperature during the month of May)

Sunday Morning May 5: 46° (new record)

Monday Morning May 6: 48° (new record)

As we continue to pull out of this atypical pattern, warmer air will win out and a disturbance to our west, in combination with a moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico could help trigger widespread rainfall going into the weekend.

I will keep you updated as changes in the forecast occur, but you may throw your heavy coat back in the closet for now.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Coldest Air On Record For May

Spring is a season that helps the atmosphere transition from the harsh winter chill to the blazing heat of summer. As is typical of any transition, there are ups and downs, but there tends to be a progression. In other words, temperatures can fluctuate frequently this season, but what we have coming our way will shock you.

If you read the last post, we talked about a cold front that will drive in a huge pool of cold air which could set new record low temperatures. Now, there is high confidence this will happen, but between now and then, there is a lot to talk about.

As of this afternoon, the front crossed the Texas panhandle and took temperatures from the mid-90s yesterday, down to the 50s.

In just a 24 hour period, the temperature dropped nearly 50° from Dalhart to Amarillo. The temperature change will be drastic here too and we will feel it starting tonight.

A cold front along with additional upper level features is the main driver in this extreme May weather swing.

The cold front is responsible for the colder air, but notice the yellow line extending from low-pressure center. This is known as a dry line, and has the potential to erupt several strong to severe thunderstorms along it this evening. Due to its upward forcing, plus plenty of instability ahead of it, areas from the Hill Country to the Brazos Valley need to be alert. Thunderstorms are expected to line up west of I-35 this evening and eventually cross into the Brazos Valley around midnight. Details are not 100% determined, but this is the trend we see in the model data. One model that we use often here at KAGS, the RPM model, illustrates this complex to be here just after midnight.

 

Remember, this is the current trend, and the forecast can change. If these storms cross our path, they will produce heavy rainfall, lightning, winds over 50mph, and hail. I will make sure to keep you in the loop as this forecast comes together on Twitter, Facebook, as well as on KAGS-HD.

 

Update: There could still be a few isolated storms here, but not as likely as previously thought.

 

Nonetheless, following this line of potential storms, the cold front will be right on our doorstep early Thursday morning. Temperatures will fall all day long, several showers will fly around us, and the wind will whip up.

 

By the time you wake up tomorrow morning, temperatures will be falling from the 60s and into the 50s, where they will will hold all day long. Additionally, with a strong north wind clocking upwards of 40mph, it will feel VERY cold. Not only will an umbrella be a good idea to keep around tomorrow, also, bring out that winter coat from the back of the closet.

 

Here is where the other big story come into play. Once the sun sets tomorrow evening, temperatures will fall down into the 40s, which will be near record levels. The following image will guide you to the current records established at Easterwood Airport that could be in jeopardy:

 

 

Therefore, Friday....Saturday.....and Sunday morning coming up could feature new record low temperatures. Here is the kicker, if we break the record low on Saturday, it will not only mark a new daily record, but a new record low temperature for the entire month of May. Yeah its going to be that cold!!!! At the moment, I believe that we will tie, if not break the records Friday and Saturday. Not sure about Sunday yet, but this is not what we typically expect for May weather.

 

One final note, due to high winds and very dry air in place Friday, fire danger will be elevated. Keep that in mind as well.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



 



Another COLD BLAST Looming

Despite the lack of April showers in the Brazos Valley, surly the May flowers will bloom. Pollen levels have been all over the place over the past month, but a shot of cold air and even a quick splash of rain will ease the pain temporarily.

In the mean time, monstrous thunderstorms roared over the past couple of days from I-10 and points south. Houston had massive street flooding, golf ball sized hail, and even several locations picking up over 6" of rain. San Antonio also picked up wet weather with vivid illuminations, and this afternoon, one thunderstorm dropped a brief tornado just north of Corpus Christi, in Taft, TX. Here in the Brazos Valley, there have been a few isolated pockets of heavy rain, but nowhere near what south Texas has been dealing with. We will see a few more showers, but as the April days wane and May edges closer, the heat and humidity that fueled these storms will be washed away.

Locked up to our north is a cold front that looms and will zero-in to the Brazos Valley later this week.

As of this afternoon, there is very little activity along the front with a few rain and show showers behind the front. However, the bigger story with this will be the cold air behind it. There will be a period of rain and even a few storms when the front moves in Thursday, but once the colder air seeps in, May could begin with record low temperatures.

Not only does the image above illustrate that colder air is poised to head south, this will wipe away the humidity as well beginning Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the upper 60s and even low 70s for a few days to come, but the mornings are going to be VERY COLD. So cold, that we might challenge a few record low temperatures.

Record Low Temperatures for Easterwood Airport;

Friday Morning: 45° (1954)
Saturday Morning: 42° (1954)
Sunday Morning: 47° (1953)

Keep the umbrellas handy, as well as a heavy coat, you will need it all this week.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Possible Severe Weather Saturday

Taking a look at the new computer models, there will be a slight chance of severe thunderstorms Saturday in parts of Texas. I believe that the Brazos Valley will avoid big storms, but I cannot rule out several bouts of rainfall during the weekend.

As of this evening, low pressure with a trailing cold front will move across central Texas and the Brazos Valley tomorrow afternoon.

 

Once the cold front parks across our neck of the woods, disturbances in the upper levels will ride along the front and help to create a few big storms, especially west of I-35 and parallel to I-10.

Surface and upper level data suggests that any storms that crop up will have the possibility to produce: heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail. The tornado threat is really not there tomorrow based on the way the winds are aligned. Due to all of the ingredients in play, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma has outlined portions of the Hill County and east Texas under a slight risk for severe weather.

Again, the Brazos Valley should be spared from big storms, but if you are traveling to the Hill Country stay on top of the weather.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Quick Cool Down With A Few Spring Spritzes

This up and down weather patter has been driving all of us crazy. Consistency is nice, but also days without humidity too. This afternoon is the low humidity day, but slowly, the Gulf waters will send some uncomfortable conditions our way. Additionally, an upper level disturbance will rotate clouds and a few light showers in our direction. Then guess what.....another strong cold front is in the foreseeable future too.

While the sun is brilliantly shinning overhead today, a combination of and upper level disturbance and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. At the moment, an area of clouds resides in north Mexico and south Texas, which is poised to move towards our direction. With the aid of high pressure centered to our east-southeast, this disturbance will move north around the high's clockwise flow. Therefore, overcast conditions with very limited sunshine are in the immediate forecast tomorrow and Friday.

Along with the cloud cover comes a wind directions more from the south, adding humidity and producing several light showers. Expect off and on isolated showers over the course of the next few days, with no washouts expected.

Yet, a strong cold front is in the offing by the middle of next week that could generate stronger thunderstorms and heavier rainfall. Still a bit far out for specifics, but I will keep you in the loop.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Yucky Humidity For Now, But Cold Air Nears

No matter what your outdoor plans were this weekend, the weather was sensational all across the state. Here in Aggieland, a multitude of events had superior turn outs due to Mother Nature's grand presence. Not only did Johnny Football soar during the Maroon & White Game, the temperatures did as well. Additionally, if you went out to Kyle Field Sunday evening for Film on The Field, you were treated to perfection.

Now, as we began the new work week, you might have noticed the enhanced cloud cover and additional humidity in the air. Additionally, we are battling a pressure gradient between high pressure to our east and a broad low pressure circulation over the Rockies. This "pressure gradient" is kicking up the wind speeds from the south this week. However, once we see a cold front trailing a center of low pressure to our north, the wind will come from a much colder direction.

As of this afternoon, many areas of the Rockies are experiencing light snowfall with the heaviest concentration of heavier snow around northern Colorado.

 

 

Despite the disorganized look of this picture, this broad area of low pressure will hook up with energy in the upper levels to spin up a stronger storm that will generate a storm that will affect most of the lower 48.

 

The following image is a prog of the 500mb level from a weather computer model illustrating where the upper level energy exists that will help amplify this storm.

 

 

The main spoke of energy is highlighted in yellow and orange with an "X" from northern California to the eastern Pacific. Notice how its an elongated feature. By the middle of the week, this feature will move towards the central/southern Plains and concentrate.

 

 

On Thursday, the concentration of upper level energy (spin) will focus to our north and unfold a severe weather outbreak that will span from central Texas towards Iowa. Additionally, its going to be cold enough that heavy snow will fall all over the Rockies and up into the Dakotas.

 

 

Here in the Brazos Valley, Thursday will be the main day where changes occur for us. A cold front will approach us from the parent storm and produce a few thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. A few of these storms could be severe, but the best chance of severe weather will be to our north and east. Once the front moves though Thursday afternoon/evening, the wind will switch from the northwest, shuttling in much lower humidity and much colder air. By Friday, high temperatures will reach the middle 60s, where overnight lows will bottom out in the 40s and 30s!!!!!

 

One week, two seasons. KAGS-HD will keep you in the loop with changing weather conditions.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.