Thursday, December 27, 2012

Looks More Like London England

Old chap, today was perfect for an afternoon tea and some crumpets. Quite a chilly, drizzly day that only the Queen of England would enjoy. Yes, the weather outside had an appearance of London, England, or maybe Seattle, Washington.

Despite the sunny start, low clouds and drizzle engulfed the Brazos Valley quickly this afternoon. A warm front off the Gulf of Mexico slowly lifted north and helped to create a process called "overrunning." Typically, these type of events occur with mid-latitude cyclones, but can occur on a much smaller scale as well. To simply put it, warm air is moving on top of colder air at the surface, hence, overrunning.

Early this morning, a push of air from the southeast began to advance behind a warm front off the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a shallow layer of colder air was in place ahead of the front. Air behind the front is warmer with additional moisture. The exact opposite is true ahead of the front, where the air at the surface is much cooler and drier. What you need to know here is that drier, cooler air has a higher density than air that is warm and moist. In other words, air that has a higher density is essentially "heavier." The "heavier" more dense air will move when it wants to and will not let less dense air push it around. Therefore, instead of pushing the colder air out of the way, the only place for warmer (less dense) air to go, is over the colder air, that stays put at the low levels.

Take a look at this phenomenon from the side. You can clearly see that the warmer air rises over the colder, more dense air. As air rises, it tends to cool, become saturated and generates cloud cover. In our situation, the depth of cold air is so shallow, that precipitation remained light in the form of drizzle and showers. This also answers why its been so chilly today because the cold air did not want to move. However, this type of event is quite tricky to track, especially on doppler radar. Satellite pictures are perfect, but not so much when the radar is superimposed on top. 
 
The picture on the right displays what Max Storm saw this afternoon. Plenty of clouds, but radar echos are not returning, illustrating any precipitation. As noted earlier in this blog entry, our event is shallow. Cloud cover is close to the ground, and therefore precipitation that forms and falls is close to the ground as well. When an event sets up like this, it is almost impossible for doppler radars to pick up precipitation. Two key reasons for this is due to how dopplers work. One, you need to factor in that when a beam from the doppler radar goes out to find targets (precipitation, bugs, birds....etc.) the radar beam shoots out at an angle. Plus, the curvature of the Earth comes into play as well. The farther an object is from the radar site, the lower chance that the radar will pick up on it, especially if the target is close to the ground.
 
The illustration on the left should help you understand the two issues with curvature and angle. Note how the radar beam is shot at an angle, but how the Earth's curvature comes into play. A thunderstorm close to the radar has no problem, but the storm farther away from the radar cannot be picked up. Therefore, the best way to know about any shallow precipitation are from first hand accounts, weather watchers and official weather reporting sites, such as airports. Nonetheless, the doppler radar is one of the best tools that a meteorologist has. Sometimes, we need to do an little extra digging to understand what exactly is going on.
 
For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.


Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Christmas Tornadoes

The National Weather Service completed their survey of the tornado damage in Houston County from the Christmas Day storms. They found one as a minimal EF-0 tornado, but the second a powerful EF-3. The following is an illustration of the location of the twisters, plus the assessment from the National Weather Service.


...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 12/15/12 TORNADO EVENT...

.SOUTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY TORNADO # 1...

RATING:                 EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    150 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  7.0 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   300 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             DEC 25 2012
START TIME:             9:25 AM CST
START LOCATION:         5 WSW PENNNIGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY /TX
START LAT/LON:          31.1674/ -95.3132

END DATE:               DEC 25 2012
END TIME:               9:35 AM CST
END LOCATION:           2 N PENNINGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
END_LAT/LON:            31.2290 -92.2356

SURVEY SUMMARY: WORST OF THE DAMAGE WAS ALONG HIGHWAY 287 A MILE
NORTH OF PENNINGTON WHERE A FEED STORE AND RESTAURANT WERE
COMPLETELY DESTROYED WITH DEBRIS SCATTERED IN FIELD TO THE EAST.
WITNESSES OBSERVED A WIDE DARK CLOUD MOVING ACROSS THE PATH
SCATTERING DEBRIS. SEVERAL HOMES AND TRAILERS WERE SEVERELY
DAMAGED ALONG THE PATH...MOSTLY EF-1 AND EF-2 DAMAGE...BUT
THERE WERE NO SERIOUS INJURIES.

.TORNADO # 2...

START DATE:             DEC 25 2012
START TIME:             9:40 AM CST
START LOCATION:         1 NNW PENNNIGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY /TX

END DATE:               DEC 25 2012
END TIME:               9:41 AM CST
END LOCATION:           1 NNW PENNNIGTON / HOUSTON COUNTY /TX

RATING:                 EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    75 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   30 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0



BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OBSERVED BY POLICE OFFICER NEAR SCENE OF
EARLIER TOUCHDOWN ALONG ROUTE 287. SOME DEBRIS LOFTED BUT
LITTLE ADDITIONAL DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH*

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Christmas Severe Weather Breakdown

Could you believe it, but Christmas is here!!!! Santa has already been working hard this Christmas Eve delivering presents to many all across the world and eventually the big guy in the bright red suit will make and appearance here. Rudolph will have no trouble guiding good ole St Nick though the weather in the Brazos Valley. However, once we turn the calendar to Christmas Day, our potential for turbulent weather goes up and some of these storms will reach severe levels.

As of this evening, the main engine of low pressure that will drive these storms continues to sit over the Colorado Rockies. Despite the length of distance this low needs to make in order to get here, its a fairly quick mover. It will be such a swift mover that we will begin to feel some effects around 3am tomorrow (Christmas Day) morning. Additionally, note how the center of low pressure is attached to a warm front. In fact, this was the cold front that moved though our area last night. Now, its going to lift back north as a warm front that will be one of the key triggers to firing off strong to severe thunderstorms.

Before we get into the nitty gritty, the Storm Prediciton Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma believes that there is a heightened potential for severe weather here overnight. Therefore, our entire viewing area has a "slight risk" of severe weather overnight. Basically, the SPC uses this terminology to give awareness that the weather for a certain area has the potential to be rough. Not only will the Brazos Valley feel the effects, but the severe threat extends in to Louisiana, Mississippi, and even Alabama too.

Since we have the ground work laid out for you, lets talk about the specifics in terms of timing and impacts. Now, the center of low pressure currently over the Rockies will slide down into central Texas overnight. At the same time, a warm front that is currently to our south will begin to lift north. Furthermore, instability will take place and thunderstorms will initiate.


This first step will occur between 3am-6am early Christmas Day. Thunderstorms that breakout in this timing window will be isolated, but are not limited to producing strong gust winds, heavy rainfall, small hail, and frequent lightning. Several of these storms will carry severe characteristics, but it wont be widespread.

Here is a look at how one computer model illustrates the early thunderstorm activity.



Here is the kicker, after 6am, the warm front will completely pass though the Brazos Valley and heighten the potential for damaging storms from 6am - 10am. If this occurs, we will be in an area between the warm and cold front, known as the "warm sector". Not only does this zone create stronger storms, but the potential for tornadic development. Additionally, a line will develop ahead of the cold front that could generate winds above 60mph at times.

 
 

Again, if this occurs, our threat for tornadoes goes up, but is not guaranteed. However, if the warm front stays to our south, thunderstorms will still be strong, but the threat for tornadoes shrinks significantly. Nonetheless, this will be a situation that will be a waiting game to see the exact track of each piece of the puzzle.

In the end, the entire area will receive a fair amount of rainfall, which is much needed.


In some of the stronger storms, a few locations could pick up over 2 inches of rainfall.

So here is the breakdown for you:

Timing: 3am - 10am.

Impact: Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and a potential for isolated tornadoes.

But don't fear, I will make sure to keep you informed on Facebook, Twitter, and on-air if we need to break into programming. KAGS-HD is committed to keep you in the loop before, during and after the storm.

Finally, once the cold front moves passed us, it will turn sharply colder and windier.

Be safe and have a Merry Christmas! Tonight will be a good night to turn on your NOAA Weather Radios, or download the KAGS-HD Weather app that will alert you if severe weather strikes.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

An Arctic Blast....Then Wintry Weather?

Tis' the season to be jolly with all the major holidays jam packed in a three week period. Also, tis' the season for traveling. If the weather does not cooperate, then there is going to be some trouble. Paying attention to the weather forecast this holiday season will be crutial all across the country. Recently, a dull, tranquil pattern has turned more active with severe thunderstorms, and even blankets of snow. This trend does not seem like its going to stop anytime soon before 2012 comes to a close.

Two storms will take shape over the next week or so and cause travel troubles for many locations. Right now, the first storm will be an easy read, but the second one that comes down the pike could be interesting and tough to grasp at this time.

Presently, a strengthening low-pressure center sits over the Rockies and is prepared to move into the heart of the country with a line of thunderstorms and huge swath of snow. A combination of mid-level energy, surface temperature differences, and mixing a strong jet stream aloft will aid the power of this currently benign storm.

From the latest computer guidance, the track of this storm should take the center of low pressure though southern Colorado, eventually trek into Missouri and towards southern Michigan. Due to ample cold air, areas located to the north of the center will experience wintry weather, while liquid precipitation will fall to the south.


Because there is a good grasp on the certainty of the path and precipitation type with this next news headliner, the National Weather Service has already placed many from the Rockies to the western Great Lakes under Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and even Blizzard Warnings. Each area you see on the image to the left that's  highlighted in color are locations under winter weather alerts. Snow accumulations could top off near a foot for some, but the strongest winds and blizzard conditions will most likely be felt in western Kansas. Winds could whip over 60mph at times, causing whiteout conditions and halting travel.
 
Sure, the winds will increase all over the Brazos Valley tomorrow and Thursday, but we are well south of the cold air that snow will not be our issue. Therefore, a line of thunderstorms will be our main concern and approach around midnight Thursday. Severe weather should not be a concern, but some of these storms will produce gusts near 40mph, brief heavy rainfall and lightning. Once the front moves though, the gate will open up and cold air will unleash from the north. A gusty north wind will shuttle in much colder air for Thursday. Therefore, the 80 degree weather will be wiped out and its replaced with highs in the 50s, and yes overnight lows below the freezing mark. Cooler air will stay in place though Saturday before another big storm approaches.
 
Computer models are hinting on another, more powerful storm to drop into the southern Rockies and cut across Texas next week, just after Christmas. Its still way too early to call, but it will be interesting to watch because there is the potential for severe thunderstorms and even snow in parts of Texas. If this pans out, there could potentially be huge problems travelling on the roads and though the air. I will keep you posted, but remember, this is still several days out and the forecast can change. The image to the right is just one models solution to the onset of precipitation with the potential next event. Snow Texas does happen, but not often, especially around Dallas and Waco.
 
For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.
 
 

Friday, December 14, 2012

First December Tornado Near Amarillo

According to the National Weather Service office in Amarillo, TX this evening was one for the history books. A strong line of thunderstorms rolled though the Texas Panhandle with reports of wind gusts close to 80mph at times along with blinding rainfall. Additionally there were a couple of reports of tornadoes sighted on the ground.

The first report was around 4:15PM CST with a large tornado on the ground just outside of Amarillo with the official listing 3 miles to the northeast of Washburn, TX. The following photo was taken and posted by the National Weather Service on Twitter.

 

According to the report, this tornado lasted only 5 minutes.

Farther in time, another sighting was reported around 4:55PM CST about 5 miles south-southeast of Clarendon, TX. This particular twister caused damage and destroyed a barn in its path, plus pipes were lifted off the ground and swirled in the air.

At the moment, it seems as if there were two different tornadoes from this event, and the National Weather Service will survey the damage and come out with the official count and rating as soon as possible.

What boggled the mind about this event come from the fact that this is the first ever report of a tornado in December for the Amarillo forecast area. It proves that severe weather can occur at any time of the year as long as the correct ingredients are in play.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

"Potentially Hazardous Asteroid" Passes Near Earth


An asteroid known as 4179 Toutatis will be passing relatively close to Earth this afternoon. Due to a pass of 3.7 million miles from Earth, 4179 Toutatis is classified as a "potentially hazardous asteroid." Despite a nearly 0% chance of this asteroid colliding with Earth, this is something that NASA will keep an eye on.

Toutatis is a 3 mile wide flying piece of rock and ice moving though space, which happens to be about half the size of the asteroid that struck Earth 65 million years ago that killed off the dinosaurs. Additionally, this is not the only time we have been greeted by Toutatis. Back in 2004, Toutatis zipped by Earth with an approximate distance of 1 million miles. Plus, Toutatis will likely come close to our orbit once every 4 years.

Again, this is nothing that we need to be concerned about, but something to watch. NASA predicts that Earth should not even come close to a collision over the next 600 years. But, its always good to keep an eye on the sky.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.
 

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Fog Can Create Power Outages


Fog is one of Mother Nature's gental phenomenon. Sure it lowers visibility, slowing down travel, but thats about it. However, there was a bizzar encounter this morning as power outages were reported in several counties in central Texas. Widespread power outages were reported in Bell, McLennan, Falls and Hill counties as 60 power poles caught fire. This all happened due to fog as visibilities were below 1 mile and in some cases below 1/8 of a mile.

Following a conversation with the Fort Worth National Weather Service office, their insight was quite amazing. In order for this to occur, there are two main ingredients. One, the obvisous, thick widespread fog. Two, a drought striken area.

During a prolonged drought, small bits of dirt and dust collect on power lines and power poles. As fog rolls in, tiny water droppletts attach to the dirt and dust. As this occurs, the dry dirt turns to a pasty mud. Mud acts as a conductor and allows electricity that flows from the wires to the poles, which in turn, over heats the power poles and sparks fires.

So yes, fog can create destruction, but this is a rare event. Back in 2011 Corpus Christi had widespread outages due to fog, and the same happened to Austin in 2009.

What a wild world of weather we live in.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Colder Air Coming Down The Pike

For a change, it was quite welcoming to hear the pitter patter of rain and the percussion of thunder. Parts of the Brazos Valley are in a severe drought with barely 0.50" of rainfall accumulation since October 17th. We need more, and its always good to see liquid gold in moderation. Too much in too little time could cause problems. But an rain is good rain around these parts.

Nonetheless, the extreme December heat has been wiped away via a cold front that delivered a small heap of rain this morning. This past weekend, there were several locations in Robertson County that clocked temperatures near 90°! As drier, cooler air filters in, expect Wednesday to be a gem with a mostly sunny sky, morning lows in the upper 40s and daytime highs in the low 70s. However, the heat and humidity will build again later this week and towards the weekend.

Yet, there will be a huge temperature swing on the horizon.


The key reason why today's front will not give us the polar plunge is due to its origins. We call these "Pacific Fronts" that originate off the.....(you guessed it) Pacific Ocean. Typically, these fronts will cool us down marginally and supply a quick shot of drier air. Note the temperatures behind the front into the Rockies and Pacific Northwest really are not that cold for this time of year. On the other hand, there will be another storm that will drill in air from Canada over the coming weekend.


The air way up into Canada has been hiding for a while, but now its going to come out and play a game of peek-a-boo. Sure enough we will say, "I see you." We will not even come close to see temperatures in the 10s and 0s here, but when this pool of polar air dives south it will moderate the air that we currently have in place.

Computer information shows that we will get hit with the cold stuff in a period between Sunday and Monday as the jet stream will move our way.


When you see a dip in the jet stream like that, you should be aware that changes are coming. Not only will this cool the Brazos Valley off in a big way, but also well needed rainfall will accompany the onset of the new air mass.

At the moment, what I can foresee are high temperatures by next week could hold in the 50s with a few evenings in the 30s/20s.

I will keep you updated with the latest.


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Friday, November 30, 2012

The 2012 Hurricane Season Draws To A Close

The 2012 Hurricane season not only is one for the record books, but a season that many of us do not want to encounter again. Since 1851, record have been documented for each Hurricane Season which runs from June 1st though November 30th. It is possible for storms to form outside of that six month window, but are very rare. Nonetheless, 2012 has tied for the third most active season on record. With 19 named storms, there were only two names remaining at the end of the season.


The only two names that have not been used are Valerie and William. Every other name was coined with three of these storms making landfall on U.S. soil. Beryl pounded onto the first coast of Florida early in the season, giving Jacksonville its first tropical storm in a while. Also, Isaac hugged Louisiana and Mississippi, drenching many locations with nearly 20" of rain. Finally, the big blow came from Sandy, a storm that many along the east coast will remember forever.

Some say Sandy is a once in a lifetime type of storm. Not only due to fury and destruction, but meteorologically speaking, took an unparalleled hard left (west) turn which has never been observed before.



A perfect set up steered Sandy from the Atlantic Ocean into the south New Jersey coastline within a matter of hours. Coastal erosion, 70mph+ winds extending over 100 miles from the center, major inland flooding, several feet of snow in the mountains, 25ft+ waves in Lake Erie, NYC subway shutdowns, and extensive, long lived power outages. In total, estimates close in on $62 Billion. Sandy ranks second to Katrina in 2005 which caused over $100 Billion in damage.

Additionally, despite 2012 being the third most active Hurricane Season, only one storm eclipsed Major Hurricane status (Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of 111mph+). Furthermore this lone Major Hurricane did not make landfall. Therefore, 2012 marks the seventh straight year without a Major Hurricane making landfall on U.S soil, which is a new record.

Nonetheless, whether there are 20 names storms or 3, it only takes 1 major storm to make landfall in order for a season to be considered active. We shall wait for the 2013 season, but for now we can rest easy. With the science of meteorology elevating higher, forecasting will continually improve and give you the most advanced notice so you can always stay ahead of the storm and prepare for what Mother Nature has ahead.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Drought Update: Not Good News

Right now, we are in between major holidays, but fully bellies remain as we just passed Thanksgiving. There are many things that all of us are thankful for this holiday season, but we are not 100% thankful for the recent weather pattern. Sure, its been great to go outside, but we need the rain as parts of the area continue to fall back into a moderate to severe drought.


As of the new Drought Monitor that came out today, about 95% of the viewing area is currently in a drought. Plus, a sliver from northern Grimes County to southern Lee County slid back to Severe Drought conditions. Due to a prolonged period of quiet weather with little if any rain to show for it, we continue to dig deeper and deeper into a problem we dont want to have.

One way to answer this is to look at rainfall by the numbers. Within the first 3 months of 2012, about half of our annual average of rain fell from the sky. At Easterwood Airport, an astounding 20.74" fell in a period from January to February. In contrast, over the past 3 month from September though November, a mere 5.90" was squeezed out. Also, since October 17th, we have only been able to manage a disappointing 0.87".

Unfortunately, this problem wont be fixed for a while.

From what I can glean at with our current and future weather not much rain is in the forecast through the middle of December. Yes, we will have a few minor showers sprinkled here and there, but no large scale storms are in the offing to wash us out.

A key reason has to do with the upper level pattern.


Not only is it easy to see that the lower 48 is fairly quiet, but note how the jet stream is well north of us. The jet stream has two main fundamentals.

1) Divide cold air from warm.

2) Steer large scale storms.

Dividing cold air from warm is very evident when you look at the temperatures bottled up in Canada.


Several locations in the Yukon Province as well as the Northwest Territory dropped below -40°F!!!! Yeah, its that cold up there.

However, since the jet stream is barely budging, not only will the cold air stay up there, any significant storm that crosses the country will stay well to our north. Until the jet stream changes it orientation and dips farther south, we will be left in the dust.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Friday, November 16, 2012

Leonid Meteor Shower To Peak By Dawn


Its quite amazing how a combination of space rock and our atmosphere can paint such beautiful streaks of bright light across the sky. This weekend, we are treated once again to another celestial event. The Leonid Meteor Shower is not the most impressive show of the year, but still a sight to see.

Space dust and rock that the atmosphere passes though creates the vivid bright lights which are the debris from a comet known as 55P/Temple-Tuttle. When you look up in the sky tonight and very early tomorrow, gaze your eyes towards the constellations of Leo and the Big Dipper.

Weather wise, it will be a clear/cool night with very little light interference from a 13% full, waxing crescent moon. Approximately 10-15 meteors per hour will fly overhead just before dawn tomorrow (Saturday).

Following this, will be the much anticipated Geminids Meteor Shower on December 13th, where on average 100 meteors per hour will zoom by during the peak.

Enjoy the sights and always enjoy the weather.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Shhhhhh......The Weather Is Vewy Vewy Quiet

During my childhood years, I was all about Saturday morning cartoons. In fact, I was all about cartoons 7 days a week. Despite the ever changing landscape of how toons are evolving in media, Looney Tunes have always been a staple all across the spectrum. One particular character comes to mind which parallels this weather pattern perfectly, Elmer Fudd. Every episode, he always said his famous tag line, "Shhh! Be vewy, vewy quiet.... I'm hunting wabbits!"


While Bugs Bunny is off the hook, Daffy Duck is not because most of Texas is currently in Dove and Duck hunting season. But whether you are hunting or going the A&M game this weekend, the weather will be quite enjoyable due to our latest long lived pattern.



High pressure at the surface has been anchored from the Maritimes of Canada to the front range of the Rocky Mountains. Additionally, this weather feature has not budged at all which is the key reason why the past several days, and the upcoming weekend will feature similar weather day in and day out. Plus, when you look at the orientation of this a north to north east flow remains at the dominate wind direction. Therefore, the cool and dry air continues to shuttle in.

 
Overall, this equates to mornings with temperatures in the 30s and 40s, where afternoons spike into the 60s, and eventually the 70s by early next week. Several high, thin cirrus clouds will mix in with the sunshine, but in the big picture, this weather is awesome for outdoor activities.
 
On the horizon, our next "significant" possibility of rain will be on Tuesday, next week. If anything changes I will keep you up to date. For now, enjoy this weather and take it all in.....
 
For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.


Monday, November 12, 2012

First Freeze of The Season For Some

We knew that one of these days, there was going to be a cold front that meant business. Quite a difference ahead, and behind the latest boundary. A plume of 80s spread all across central and southeast Texas yesterday, but today was a whole different story. Truly a deep polar air mass carved itself out though a majority of the country including here, in the Brazos Valley.

Highs this afternoon have only managed to reach the low 60s. In comparison, our average high this time of the year is around 73°. Despite temperatures being below average this afternoon, the bigger story will be the low temperatures overnight. Just like a game of limbo....the question is....how low will the temperatures go?

In the wake of our latest cold front, not only has high pressure moved in, but much drier air. It so happens to be that dry air will be a key ingredient in the temperature forecast tonight.

Take a look at the following image which displays the dew points:


We tend to use this number a lot in the summertime to show you how humid it is, but on a night like tonight meteorologists use it differently.

Tonight we will have "radiational cooling". In other words, conditions will be ripe for afternoon solar radiation to escape into space and allow the temperature to drop. For ideal radiational cooling you need three ingredients:

1) Clear Sky

2) Light Wind

3) Dry Air

We will have all three tonight, however the dew point temperature tells the tail that this is as low as the air temperature can go. I will tell you off the bat that it will not be 17° tomorrow morning in Dallas because this is not a mid-winter air mass. However it will get quite cold. Additionally, this is as low as the temperature can go because if the air temperature cools to the dew point temperature, then condensation will occur (cloud or fog development). Condensation is a warming process and the temperature will begin to go up.

Nonetheless, expect low readings tomorrow morning with some areas, especially for Milam, Robertson and Leon counties to dip just below 32° for a time. And yes, there will be a few spots that hit the upper 20s too!

 
Because of this first threat for freezing temperatures, the National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning for our northern counties from 3am to 9am Tuesday morning.
 
 
 
Due to the fact that we will be entering the colder months, its a good idea to take care of a few chores around the house to keep you warm and safe.
 
1) Make sure to wrap your pipes with insulation so they don't burst.
 
2) Seal off your windows and use weather stripping to keep the cold air from seeping in.
 
3) Cover plants that are sensitive to cold weather.
 
4) Keep the pets indoors. If we don't like the cold, they don't like the cold either.
 
Finally, on average, freezes occur in this part of the country from November 28th to March 2nd. 



For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Friday, November 9, 2012

Several Storms Sunday Evening

From the latest computer guidance, I feel more confident on the timing of our next cold front as well as the character of thunderstorm development. In the mean time, winds will continue to whip at a clip near, if not exceeding 30mph at times through Sunday.


Its not just windy here, its all over the southern Plains. The winds were gusting near 40mph this afternoon in Dallas and Oklahoma City. That would blow your boots off. Additionally, direction of the wind is important ahead of the next cold front. A general south to south east flow is helping to unlock additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. More moisture means that storms that develop on Sunday have ample fuel to work with.

Currently, our weekend weather warrior is slowly cycling around the Rockies before making a move towards the Plains.


This mass of clouds and isolated precipitation does not look too threatening, but when a strong jet stream along with mid-level energy catches up to this, the storm as a whole will strengthen rapidly. The main body of low pressure will move from the Rockies towards Minnesota Sunday. Plus, an elongated cold front will stretch from the parent low, all the way down to south Texas.

As the cold front approaches the Brazos Valley, it will interact will all of the moisture in play, plus moderate to strong wind shear (change of wind speed and direction with height). This will initiate thunderstorm development Sunday evening, but the strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop just to our north.

The following image details mid-level energy that helps to prolong the life of a thunderstorm, and kick up the strength a notch.


The area circled denotes the best forcing, and highest likelihood of severe weather. Therefore, northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma will have the best atmospheric set up for storms to develop large hail and strong damaging winds.

Due to this potential, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, OK, has highlighted this area for a Slight Risk of severe weather on Sunday.

 
This does not mean that the Brazos Valley is 100% out of the woods.
 
 
Weather To Expect: From 2pm and later, expect a line of thunderstorms to develop. Some may produce torrential downpours along with vivid lightning. Yes, there is a small chance that one of two of these storms could be severe.
 
Timing: 2pm to 8pm Sunday.
 
Severe Risk: Low
 
I just want to note again that we will have a few storms, but the strongest will be to our north and east. If the forecast changes, I will inform you. Plus, if any severe weather strikes, I will keep you up to date with the latest. Nonetheless, enjoy your weekend, but keep an eye to the sky Sunday evening.
 
Finally, behind this front, it will turn sharply colder Monday.
 
For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.
 


Tuesday, November 6, 2012

The Weekend Severe Weather Rumble

Following the latest cold front, weather across the entire Brazos Valley has been picture perfect. Sure, it was a chilly start, but this afternoon was nothing short of perfection. A burly dome of high pressure that is responsible for this outstanding Election Day weather will slowly begin to drift eastward. Therefore, each afternoon for the remainder of the week will slowly get warmer and warmer. Plus, by Thursday, you will notice the wind will pick up ahead of our next big weather maker.

At the moment, all of the computer models are spitting out a cold front which should sweep across the entire Plains and eventually move to the east coast late this weekend. Before diving into additional details, the timing is not yet 100% set, but for now, it looks like the Brazos Valley can expect a frontal passage from late Sunday night through Monday morning. Once the timing is easier to glean, I will make sure to update you on the latest.

Presently, built up energy for the next storm is bottled up in the Gulf of Alaska.

 
This mass of swirling clouds will shift into the Pacific Northwest and start a journey though the entire lower 48.
 
Several ingredients will be key in the full evolution. First, strong vorticity (mid level atmospheric spin), and second, very quick jet stream winds.

 
By the second half of the weekend a vigorous trough with embedded vorticity maxima (areas of intense cyclonic spin), catch up to the surface low and generate intensification. Additionally, this will help lift the air further, producing even taller thunderstorms which live longer.
 
Take strong vorticity, and add an energetic jet stream in the upper levels, and you have a recipe for widespread severe weather.
 
Note: At the moment, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday though Monday will be along a line from Kansas to Wisconsin.
 
 
Notice how the fastest winds in the darker blue line up well with the mid level forcing. Not only does this allow storms to become more dynamic, but allows for additional wind shear (changing wind speed and direction with height), in turn can set up an environment for tornadoes.
 
Due to the potential of severe weather expected, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already highlighted a region to watch.
 
 
 
Overall, the following image will illustrate the models forecast at the surface for Sunday.
 
 
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across the Plains. Again, it looks like the timing for the Brazos Vally will be between Sunday night and Monday morning for this cold front to move by. Ahead of the front, a few storms will greet us, with the most incense severe weather well to our north. Behind this system, windier, and much colder.
 
When you compare cold front. The front that is forecasted to move in by the end of the weekend is much heartier than the front the swiped by yesterday.
 
I will keep you updated with any changes in the forecast.



For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Communicating Sandy And Potential Historic Storm A Tough Task

I am sure that most of you who are reading this blog are very familiar with Hurricane Sandy, as well as a potential blockbuster storm for the east coast. Many names come to mind when I was reading articles online and glancing at Twitter feeds. "Frankenstorm", "Megastorm", "Freakstorm", even notes about a Hurricane/Nor'easter hybrid, and finally comparisons to the "Perfect Storm" of 1991.

No matter the name, no matter the exact physics of the storm, whether its a warm core tropical cyclone or a cold core mid-latitude cyclone, forecasts are calling for a major impact event from Florida to Maine.

Questions still remain to be answered exactly where this storm will go. Models have begun to agree and gel together indicating that Sandy will move parallel to the east coast and eventually hook left (west), creating massive destruction. That said, additional data needs to be compiled for more confidence. Good news, is that more data will be coming. The National Weather Service will launch weather balloons 4 times each day at local offices, rather than twice, to get a better idea of the atmosphere's upper level structure. Once added balloon data is meshed into the models, forecast confidence will go way up. At the moment, we will not know 100% about the movement of the storm into the east coast until Saturday morning.

Anyway, back to the larger picture....how to communicate this type of potential disaster?

1) Its good to be aware, but make sure to tell the truth in what you know and what you don't.

What we do know is that there is a hurricane moving though the Bahamas and has the potential to move into the east coast early next week. Key word being POTENTIAL. Meteorologists use this term, because we base our forecast on computer simulations as guidance. The reason why you might hear television stations "hype" this event is due to the fact that many models agree that something big might happen.

Note: There are still a couple of outliers that try to take this storm well away from the coast, but a vast majority show an east coast landfall.

On the other side of the spectrum, when you look at history....this type of event is so rare that there is no comparison. Its OK to tell your audience how unique this situation is and why an official forecast is tough to nail down.

Tell them what you know and don't know....be honest.

2) Naming a storm a good thing?

Yes, and no.

Names stick to people's head and are used as an ice breaker around the water cooler. Additionally, if there is an underlying meaning, then the outcome will determine if the storm was worthy of the given name. Names can always make or break the public's trust in scientists, especially meteorologists.

Whether Sandy is used, or "Frankenstorm", communication though impacts is a better use of time, and mean more. Basically, rather than using a name, we need to tell the public that something unique could take shape, with potential high impact threats.

When it comes to a storm, the general public typically does not care about the science, just how it will affect their livelihood.

3) When should the "hype" come though fruition?

Since all the data has not been fully integrated, broad forecasts are best. Scenarios work in this situation. From there, the public should be aware of all the options due to uncertainty. But label each option with a level of confidence.

Once the data if fully ingested and a true pin point forecast can be made (which in my eyes seems like early Saturday morning), stronger, more dominant language should be used if danger is imminent.

From there, we need to answer a laundry list of questions for potential impacts in specific locations.

Where will it rain? When? How Hard? Where is the highest potential for flooding? How high will the waves be along the coast? Coastal erosion? How windy will it be?

Can this storm on its current path blow my house down? What about my boat on the dock? Will my family be OK?

Overall, this type of storm should be handled with care. Its good to see that people are aware of this meteorological event, but still too early to call exact shots. Furthermore, this is a perfect time to teach the public about how difficult forecasting can be though the science of meteorology.

Mixing teaching and forecasting can be the best way to communicate such a rare event.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Is A Hard Left Turn Possible For Hurricane Sandy?


Sandy continues to steal the headlines as this massive storm matured into a Hurricane. Winds have been clocked near 100mph at times as Sandy spins in ferocious waves and rainfall all across Jamaica. Swaths of rain have battered parts of Cuba, the Dominican Republic as well as the Bahamas. Also, Sandy has picked up additional forward speed towards the north and eastern Cuba is next in line to experience lashing effect.

The short term forecast remains the same, but in the long term (meaning early next week), computer models are coming more into agreement that Sandy may take a hard left hook and move into the Mid-Atlantic or New England coastline, which is giving many meteorologists headaches.

Before I dive into the history of tropical systems and Sandy's future, it is still way too early to call an exact forecast on this system. However, its always good to be aware of this possible situation and have a plan in place.

As far as the future forecast of this potential beast, its always good to take a look at the past. Right now, there are several models that indicate this storm to take a dynamic turn to the east. When you look at the history of tropical systems, or even typical mid-latitude cyclones, its quite difficult to make such a turn. Now, its very likely for any system as they move from the tropics to the north and make a hard turn right (east) due to strong westerly winds. Therefore, a 100% PERFECT set up is needed in order for the worst case scenario to occur.

The following images illustrate a couple hurricanes that I found to make an improbable turn around the Mid-Atlantic and New England:

1) Hurricane Connie 1955


Here, Connie took a couple of turns. One, to parallel the coast, and two, a left turn inland. But, this is not a hard left turn like some models say Sandy can do.

2) Hurricane Agnes 1972

 
Following a dip into the Atlantic Ocean, Agnes took a turn back inland and created trouble for many, especially along Long Island.
 
Of all the tropical system that I took a glance at, I could not find one that had similar origins as Sandy. Climatology suggests that a topical system which originate in the Caribbean and move north to the Atlantic, tend to get caught up in the westerlies and brush out to sea.
 
On the other hand, one of the more destructive storms to ever hit the northeast was known as, "The Long Island Express," or the New England Hurricane of 1938.
 

This storm did not wobble uncontrollably, but rather was picked up by a trough which accelerated forward speed. For a time, The Long Island Express moved with speeds over 50mph. Therefore, it had no time to be pushed out to sea. With a combination of forward speed and strong winds, a gust over 180mph was recorded at Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts....WOW!

I am not saying that Sandy will do this, but history gives us an idea, that it is extremely difficult for a storm to back into the northeast.

Despite all the records that we have, history was meant to be rewritten....right? Well, history happens all the time as meteorology is still a young science, with huge growth potential. Forecasting and modeling have come a long way, but still have a long way to go.

Nonetheless, there are a couple of features that could make or break a major crisis for the Northeast.

If you read the last blog, we noted a blocking pattern in Greenland, and how the orientation of a trough needs to set up perfectly for a hard left turn.

As of this afternoon, models are beginning to hint that a negatively tilted trough could happen and bring Sandy off the Atlantic and draw the storm ashore. Following deep analysis of many computer models, they all point to one thing that will help draw Sandy inland.

A shortwave at the 500mb (18,000ft) level, coming in front Canada could swipe the south side of the storm and knock it back east. The following images are 500mb plots with the short wave, or area of concern is before gyrating this storm back east.

1) 12z GFS

 
2) 12z EURO
 


3) 12z NOGAPS



4) 12z Canadian (CMC)


Each of these model outputs note a shortwave that could trigger a directional turn. Now the question lies in how strong this short wave will be and when it will move through. If it moves in early, a direct hit will occur, but if it shows up late to the party, the food will be gone and it will miss the US.

Furthermore, there is one more aspect that I want to look at. Its how the jet stream in the GFS model is plotted.


Circled is the eastern side of the jet stream that has much stronger winds than the western side. If what I learned in school is correct, due to this feature and wind profile, the trough that will make or break the storm should lift, rather than deepen. In other words, if the trough lifts, the the storm will not happen. According to this feature, the storm will not happen.

Again, its still too early to call how this will shape up, but all I want to say is that based on history, its going to be extremely difficult for this storm to pull out all of its ammo and directly hit the US. The forecast can change and as additional data comes in over the next couple of days, computer information will begin to gel together. Overall, yes it is still possible for Sandy to pound the northeast.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.