From Drought To Rain Overload

For the most part of 2013, a majority of the the Brazos Valley, and in fact a big chunk of Texas has dug into a deeper drought. Several storms were able to dump an immaculate amount of rain, but as we know best, we are a "feast or famine," part of the country. Either its prolonged dry spells, or quick splashes of rain. However, last weeks event which occurred from Thursday to Friday was a true treat and invigorated our soils.

Take a look at where we started before last weeks events. The following image is from the latest Drought Monitor Report that is uploaded weekly by the USDA and NOAA.

Yikes! Most of the Brazos Valley during last Thursday's report is currently under a Severe Drought, with several areas outlined as an Extreme Drought. You don't even have to look at this image to know whats going on. Lawns have gone from a vibrant flush green, to dried out, brown weeds. Plus, for the year of 2013, Easterwood Airport's climate report noted we were a solid 3.50"+ below average.  Nevertheless, three soaking rounds of rain were able to pick up our spirits.

According to Easterwood Airport, in a 48 hour period, and incredible 4.43" of rain fell. This brings the yearly total to 13.97", and turns the 3.50" deficit into a minor surplus compared to average. Furthermore, there were several locations across the Brazos Valley, especially in Madison County which picked up close to 6.00" or rain during the same period. As good as it was to see a heap of wet weather, minor flooding caused problems all around the region. Nonetheless, I am sure there will be a huge swing from the current Drought Monitor to the new report that comes out Thursday morning.

If you thought we were done with the rain for now.....hold your horses, another dose is on the way. This time around, the rain will not be as widespread and as heavy as last week. What we are watching is an upper level feature over the northwest side of Mexico.

Slowly, but surly, this feature will rotate into Texas and spawn several showers as well as a few thunderstorms. Timing at the moment looks generally around Tuesday night and into Wednesday, with the best chance of rain coming in Wednesday. A few of these storms could have a period of brief heavy rainfall, and severe weather will no be part of the picture. Just make sure to have the umbrellas ready. In addition, by the end of the week and into the weekend, expect the temperatures to rise to levels we have not experienced yet this year......90s may be coming soon!!!!


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Possible Severe Weather Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, but incredible heat fronted the headlines this afternoon. This morning, the official low temperature only managed to dip to 69°, which happens to be a new record high, minimum temperature for the date. The old record was 67° from 1999. Additionally, with aid of sunshine, the mercury soared into the 80s, and broke a record high temperature. Officially from Easterwood Field, the high temperature eclipsed 82°, breaking the old record from 1982 and 2002 of 79°. Despite a lack of rainfall and storms today, breaking two temperature records along with 30mph+ winds make for a conversation starter around the water-cooler. Yet, there will be rain and several strong storms in our area soon.

At the moment, an area of low pressure swirling on the lee-side of the Colorado Rockies will be the focal point for generating strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas though the Mid-West. This is the same body of low pressure cranking up the wind here today and tomorrow. Over the next 24-36 hours, the center of low pressure should move out of the Rockies, into northern Oklahoma and towards Missouri. Plus, a cold front will hang back and swing though the Brazos Valley as well as most of Texas tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of this front, the air is much warmer than average, and there is plenty of moisture continuing to stream from the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the set ingredients in play, and a dynamic cold front will produce a line of thunderstorms with the possibility of damaging winds.

Aloft, winds at the jet stream level will be so powerful, there will be a possibility of tornadoes here, with a much better chance for tornadic activity in northern Louisiana, Arkansas and western Mississippi. Whats important to know here with the jet stream diagram to the left, the wind at the surface and 30,000 feet above the surface are basically lined up in the same direction. In other words, the tornado threat will be minimal, but any storms that form, have the capability of carrying these stronger winds aloft, and bring them to the surface. Therefore, some of the strongest thunderstorms will likely plow though with winds gusting over 60mph at times. Furthermore, after analyzing the newest data coming in, hail will be possible with a few storms as well. However, in order for hail to form, updrafts need to be strong. In order for this to occur, enough sun need to come out tomorrow to intensify destabilization. 

Overall, timing of this event should be between 3pm and 9pm Tuesday afternoon/evening. Exact Trac pans out the strongest storms slicing though the heart of the viewing area around 6pm. Even before the strongest storms move in, areas of rain will make the roads wet for the evening commute. Make sure to ease up on the roads and give yourself several extra minutes to make it safe to your destination. Following the frontal passage and line of storms, drier, cooler air will begin to seep in. 80° temperatures will take a break Wednesday as more realistic weather for this time of the year will settle in for a few days. Also, low temperatures Wednesday night could slide down into the 30s.

This will not be a huge severe weather outbreak, but keep in mind that there will be strong thunderstorms around tomorrow afternoon. Nonetheless, the Brazos Valley will receive widespread rainfall. Most areas will pick up 1/4" of rain with isolated locations picking up nearly 1" in stronger storms. 

I will make sure to keep you up to date as storms erupt.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Close, But No Cigar

A spell of warm air continues to keep temperatures well above average for a majority of Texas here in late January. Most areas have topped off in the 70s, with several locations, such as Hearne and Waco reaching the low 80s. These are not record setting temperatures, but are quite close. High pressure centered to our east helps to turn the wind from the south, rising the mercury and adding moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Higher dew point values have contributed to morning fog as well as a sticky feeling outside. However, there is cold air in sight. The question is, will any of that ooze in here?

Note the regional temperature plot to the right. Most of Texas remains very warm for this time of year. Along the Red River and points north, there is a stark difference. Take a look at Dallas and Oklahoma City. Dallas sits at 78° this afternoon, while a three hour drive north to Oklahoma City is drastically colder by nearly 40°. Between the cold and warm air masses, a slow moving cold front that is nearly stationary is meandering south towards the Brazos Valley. This is not a front that will blast forward, but one that will move as far south as it can until it runs out of steam.If this front does not come though the Brazos Valley, warm air will win out, and the cold air will not touch us.

According to Exact Trac, the front will remain to our north this evening and inch its way farther south overnight. During this time, a south wind will persist and the moisture train off the Gulf will not stop. Therefore, by morning, an overcast will develop and areas of fog will create tricky travel with visibilities in a few spots below a 1/2 mile at times. By the late morning and into the afternoon, the air will sufficiently warm up and the fog will not be a problem. Additionally, breaks in the clouds will allow the sun to come out and temperatures go way up again.

By the afternoon tomorrow, the front should move south, but stall just north of the Brazos Valley. Since we remain south of the front, the warm air will not go away. Additionally, along the front there will be a few isolated showers that form from the afternoon heating, but not many will experience wet weather. From there, the front will lift back north and clouds will mix in with sunshine though the weekend along with several light showers from time to time. By Tuesday a stronger cold front will move by with the possibility of severe weather for parts of northeast Texas and Arkansas. Some wet weather is in the offing for us on Tuesday and I will closely monitor the latest computer models that roll in.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Is Winter Gone?

Officially, Winter has about two additional months before Spring arrives. So no, winter is not gone technically....well at least in parts of the US. However, with the recent pattern of sunshine, and well above average temperatures, if feels like Winter is a distant memory. Its either that, or we are experiencing quite a generous January thaw.

While the Texas sun warms us up, a true arctic blast has moved into areas along the northern Plains, Great Lakes as well as the Northeast. This is some of the coldest air many areas have felt since 2009. Not only are temperatures struggling to reach 0° from Minnesota to northern Maine, but a ferocious wind takes wind chill (or feels like) values down between -30° and -50°. This is a dangerous outbreak that will persist for several days, with additional waves of cold air coming according to several long term computer models such as the highly regarded European model.

What we can see from the incoming data is that the jet stream is aligned in a way where a deep trough covers the east, while on the other side of the country a strong ridge is building out west. Meteorologically, we call this type of pattern meridional. In other words, the wind flow in the upper levels tend to have a north-south orientation which corresponds to lines of longitude, in turn following the Prime Meridian. Furthermore, the atmosphere is always looking to stay in a state of equilibrium, or balance. If one area is hot, another area will be cold, to balance out extremes. There are many other factors, but those are the basics.

Anyway, the jet stream took a large dip over the eastern United States, which opened up the gates for colder air from Canada to move right in.

Over the next 7 days, the current trogh over the eastern U.S. will tend to lift and allow a strong ridge from the west build in over the central Plains.

For us, that leaves the Brazos Valley in the bulls-eye for tranquil weather and above average warmth. Therefore, we can expect a few areas of fog early in the morning, with sun and temperatures in the 70s during the day. Temperatures should peak into the middle 70s by Thursday before our next cold front cools down the air temporarily. Enjoy the outdoors, and despite a low sun angle this time of year, make sure to slap on some sunscreen for added protection.

Its always nice to have beautiful weather like this during the winter, but we need more rain to help the drought across the Lone Star State. Ill keep you updated.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.