Many Puddles To Come

If you are familiar with one of America's most famous bands, Green Day, I am sure you have heard them say, "Wake me up when September ends....." For those that have been snoozing over the dry weather this month and dreaming of a healthy rainfall, well the final days of September will make your dreams come true. As you wake up on the final Saturday of the month, rain will be upon us, and quite a soaking is in the mix as well.

As we have addressed in the newscasts this week, there will be two crucial keys to this forecast, a front, and moisture flowing in from the Pacific Ocean. From the latest computer guidance a front to our north will only play a minor role, where tropical moisture and the formation of low pressure will be our primary concern.

Miriam, which once was a Major Hurricane, entrained much drier air and weakened significantly over the past few days into a Tropical Depression. Nonetheless, all of these tropical cyclones are rick with moisture. I have to say Miriam is quite a courteous storm, by sharing its remnant moisture with us.

Above is a snapshot of the Water Vapor Imagery. Basically, this gives meteorologists an illustration of how moist/dry the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere is. Due to upper level wind flows, Miriam helped to moisten up our air mass quite considerably yesterday and this afternoon. Despite rich moisture above, our problem is a lack of dynamic lifting to kick start organized cloud development, which in turn generate rainfall.

"Not so fast...."

Late Friday evening and into the day on Saturday, a surface storm will develop and trigger the atmosphere to make it rain.

 

Rainfall will begin to spin around a body of low pressure in West and Southwest Texas before making a move towards the coastline by Saturday evening.

 

 

At the moment, it's tough to pin point where the highest amounts of rain will fall, but generally, highest totals will fall just to the northwest of the center of circulation around the low. From what I can see, there will be a stripe of rain amounts 3"+ along the coast, with lower amounts farther inland.

 

Nonetheless, we will scoop up a fair share of the wet stuff to help green up the grass.

 

Additionally, timing of this rainfall is not 100% certain. At the moment, showers should begin to break out by Kickoff for the Aggies game against the Razorbacks. During the afternoon Saturday, rain will become more widespread and increase in intensity. Looks like if you are going to the game double up on the ponchos.

 

Several lingering showers remain early Sunday before clearing out Sunday afternoon. Following this event, the weather will be beautiful next week.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Tropics Will Help Us Out

Another Monday, another day in the sun and heat. However, that will all come to and end by the end of the week as we finally have a shot at some rainfall. Yet, the moisture source will originate from a unique location.

On a personal note, I have loved the recent trend, but most of us remain in drought conditions. Therefore, I have no problem bringing in rainfall.

Before we talk about the good stuff, lets chat quickly about the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. So far, the first 2/3 of the season has been very active. Despite recent tranquility, two more months remains on for this season. Long term models indicate that at least the next 15 days do not show much tropical activity. Therefore, if the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season ended today, it would be fairly average compared to the numbers between 1995 and 2011.

 

 

Interesting to note: each Tropical Depression that form this year (14) strengthened into a Tropical Storm (named storm). Additionally, the only Major Hurricane (category 3+) was Michael which swirled in the North Atlantic well away from the U.S.

 

 

For our bout of rainfall later this week, we need to turn our heads towards the Pacific Ocean. At the moment, Major Hurricane Miriam will weaken, and make a move towards the Baja.

 

 

The brunt of the storm will not be here, but residual moisture from Miriam, plus a cold front that will move in from the north will combine to produce rain.

 

 

Above is the 12z run of the GFS this afternoon. The printout illustrates widespread showers though out the Lone Star State by Friday. Additionally, moisture from Miriam will move slowly that could prolong rainfall until the middle of the weekend.

 

The forecast can change and I will make sure to keep you up to date on KAGS-HD. In the meantime, do the rain dance to help this area out.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.





We Are Still In A Drought????

Yeah..... it's been a prolonged issue here for most of the Lone Star State, and in fact, most of the nation as well. The positive side to all of this is that there has been a huge improvement over the condition of the drought this time last year. Extreme rainfall earlier this year helped our cause, but recent dry weather adds insult to injury.

Currently, most of the region is under the first category of drought, while sections of Milam County are a bit worse off.

 

Again, we are in a much better situation than in 2011, but we could always use additional rainfall.

 

Earlier this afternoon, I tabulated some numbers to see why this drought is slowly creeping back. Take a look at the following graphic illustrating the "top heavy" rainfall accumulations during the first 3 months of the year. Where on the other hand, the past 5 1/2 months draw out a stark contrast.

 

 



Overall, Easterwood Airport reports a yearly surplus over 4 inches of rain. However, the overall year does not correlate to the recent trend. If you remember, the soggiest months came in February with 9.30", followed up by 8.66" in March. Since, only 11.32" of rain has been reported.

In order to erase a drought, not only do you need above average rainfall, but wet weather events should be consistent and frequent. Sounds easy, yet, the current weather pattern does not show a drop of rain over the next 10 days.

 

In the upper levels, we are locked in a pattern which favors a trough over the east and Great Lakes. On the other side of the U.S. a steady ridge will influence our weather. Therefore, in the extended period, tranquility and sunshine will reign.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Autumn Is Right Around The Corner....Cool Air Is Too

Summer is waning, the temperatures are falling and the birth of a new season is only days away. Following extreme heat, lack of rainfall, and drought-like conditions, we need a weather attitude. Change is on the horizon, and we had a taste of that recently. Weekend clouds brought a steady dose of rainfall and temperatures that were nearly 20 degrees below average. Its only a sign of things to come for us.

What is great about Autumn is that its a transitional season. Meaning that there will be spurts of warm and cold air. Between these dramatic changes are typically weather events that generate precipitation as a reaction to moving air masses. Colder air is beginning to build up in Canada, and summer heat starts to shrink. Due to the increase in colder air to our north, cold fronts will have enough of a supply to make it all the way down to Texas more often. Therefore, expect additional temperature swings as well as increased rain chances.

Note: Autumn officially starts at 9:49 CDT, this Saturday, September 22nd.

Recently, temperatures around our region have been especially easy, and there is plenty more to come.

 

Besides the southwest, where the air heats up to the 90s, there is NO extreme heat across the county. Note where the temperatures take the most significant turn, where the color coded contours turn from orange to yellow and green. Within that transition zone is another cold front, reinforcing a cool shot of rain for the Rockies and upper Mid-West.

 

 

A band of clouds ahead of this front will zero in on the Brazos Valley tomorrow morning/early afternoon. This is not the most dynamic front, but we will have an isolated shower around, but most of us will feel the cool northerly breeze behind the front. And yes, there is a substantial supply of colder air well north of this into Canada.

 

 



There are two distinct regions of cooler air. One being on the east side of Canada, around James Bay with thermometer readings only in the 30s, and an additional pool of polar chill on the far west side of Canada, into Alaska. Both of these waves will move into the lower 48 this week, with the core of the chill around the Great Lakes, with a piece coming into Texas.

 

Above the the 300mb (Jet Stream) map of the first wave of cold air entering the Great Lakes tomorrow afternoon. Lows by Wednesday morning from areas between Minneapolis and Green Bay will fall into the 40s and even 30s.....Brrrrrrr. Not as chill here, but we will notice it. We should expect morning lows by Wednesday to dip into the upper 50s! And we are not done yet, the second wave on the west side of Canada will move in by Friday.

 

 

The amplitude is even deeper by Friday. This is all pointing towards seasonal changes, therefore, the weather responds. The time for us to wear jackets will come back soon. 

 

Overall, temperatures will be down, but a whole lot of sunshine is in our forecast for the reminder of the week and into the weekend.

 

Remember: When the front passes tomorrow, a small shower can pop up, but Tuesday will be mostly dry and comfy.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Interesting Forecast Coming Up.....

For the most part, this summer has been tranquil, hot, humid, and fairly similar to most summers. Now that we are going to turn the corner with Autumn creeping closer, colder air in Canada begins to brew. Therefore, cold fronts will swing down to the lower 48 more often, and yes, even us here in Texas will feel the effects of changing weather. The next cold front that comes are way could provide some much needed rainfall.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the sky shimmers a beautiful royal blue, while heat remains seasonal, but the humidity is striking back. Nonetheless, the weather is a snoozer for now, but to our north west is our next game changer.

 

 

Just like the front that plowed through last week, this one will sweep in and turn down the heat a notch. Yet, the interesting factor is that a secondary body of low pressure could develop in the upper levels. In other words, rainfall could last for a couple of days.

 

 

Typical monsoonal flow spreads rain for locations in the 4 corner states to Nevada this afternoon. But, this front is on the move, and the air behind this could produce the first snowfall in the Colorado Rockies later this week. Yup.....Autumn is getting closer, and I am sure the ski resorts in the Rockies are ecstatic.

 

Despite a few light showers here and along the Texas coast tomorrow, the weather really begins to show signs of changing on Thursday.

 

 

 

The GFS weather model notes the front slicing through the upper Mid-West and bowing down into Kansas Thursday morning. Additional humidity comes into the mix, and along with some instability, several showers and thunderstorms will be isolated around the region during the afternoon.

 

By Friday, as the front moves closer, rain becomes more numerous.

 

 

The image above illustrates the front's position by Friday morning. At the moment, it seems like the front will move through the Brazos Valley sometime Friday afternoon. Then the wind will begin to shift from the north, importing cooler air. However, this does not completely mean the rain will shut down. A feature in the mid-levels could prolong the rain into late Saturday or early on Sunday.

 





 

Upper level charts, as in the model above shows a weakness in the overall flow. It seems here that a secondary body of low pressure formed in the upper levels, and broke off from the main stream. This is quite typical, and is called a "cut-off low." Here it does not seem like the system is 100% cut off, but nonetheless a feature that needs to be monitored. If this were to hash out, then clouds will stick around and the rain as well. Since a "cut-off" is separate from the main flow, these type of feature tend to move sluggishly.

 

Due to this possibility, the model output a band of heavy rain over east Texas Saturday afternoon.

 

 

Right now, its something to watch, and the forecast can change from each model run. I will make sure to keep you updated. Overall, the take away here is that there could be a good chance of rain here from late Thursday to late Saturday.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Cold Front: Double Edged Sword

We have been waiting and waiting for a cool down, but more importantly, relief from the humidity. Our next cold front is still running as planned, scheduled for Saturday morning.

As of this afternoon, air that resembles early Autumn unfolds over the northern Rockies.

Not only can you decipher the stark contrast between the air masses with the actual temperatures, but note the color illustration on the map. Oranges and yellows will eventually will be painted across Texas, but still one more day of heat.

 

By Friday morning, the front remains to our northwest. Temperatures are expected to climb between 98° to 103° during the afternoon. Ahead of this front will be storms that line up ahead of this boundary. However, the front will slide by our area early Saturday morning. Therefore, any storms that fire up on Friday, will likely collapse before they get here. We miss out on the rain.....but we do not miss out on heat suppressant.

 

 

Not only will it be much cooler, but humidity will be down and the wind will kick up early Saturday morning during tailgating for the A&M game. Since the air will be so dry and the wind will gust between 20-25mph, a wildfire could ignite rather quickly. Make sure to be mindful of that as you tailgate. Keep on eye on your BBQ and quench any burning coals or fires before you enter the Kyle Field gates.

 

Nonetheless, just one more day, and then we can turn off the A/C at home....at least for a little while.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

 

What's In A Name? From Isaac, Ivan, And Even Ernesto to Hector

It dawned on me this morning when the National Hurricane Center (NHC) depicted an area of circulation headed for the Gulf of Mexico, that Isaac is no more. It turns out that the same storm which pounded the central Gulf Coast and spun multiple tornadoes through the Mid-West could have a sister soon to be, Nadine.

Forecasting tropical cyclones is tough enough, but naming a storm can be difficult in itself.

Below you will notice the path Issac took from the Gulf of Mexico and into the US.

 

 

Note how the remnants of the center of Isaac moved into areas in Indiana and swirled towards Kentucky. If Isaac has enough push back into the Atlantic or Gulf and regained tropical characteristics, then we would be talking about a headline stealer....again. Something more interesting actually took place. While Isaac's main circulation was around the Mid-West, a secondary circulation took shape over Mississippi and Alabama. In other words, a piece of Isaac broke off and became its own form.

 

As of this afternoon, that piece of energy is moving south towards the Gulf coast.

 

 

Yes, the NHC has their eyes on this closely as tropical formation is possible. Additionally, if this were to become a tropical storm, Isaac's name would not be used, but rather the next name which has not been used, Nadine. Due to the fact that this was not the main circulation, but rather a new (secondary) circulation that parted from the parent storm, this is considered to be separate.

 

On the other hand, there have been storms which reformed while keeping the same name. Category 5 Hurricane Ivan from 2004 comes to mind. Following landfall in Alabama, Ivan traveled though the Appalachians, weakened, and took a course back into the Atlantic Ocean. Despite losing its tropical character and becoming a remnant low, Ivan took a U-Turn back to Florida.

 

 

With another dip into the Gulf of Mexico, this remnant low reformed, regained a tropical identity and...what do you know....Ivan was back. Because the SAME parent circulation moved back over water and redeveloped, Ivan kept its name.

 

Ivan is a name that will be remembered for a long time as a devastating meteorological phenomenon, but how about storms that change names? So far we have talked about a new storm forming off an old one and a very long lived rejuvenated system, but storms that move into a new ocean basin can change names.

 

If a storm happen to move from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic name would not stand. It would switch to a name on the Pacific list. A recent example of this would be from this year's Hurricane Season Ernesto.

 

Ernesto plowed though the Caribbean and ripped up in the tall mountains of Mexico. Yet, Enresto's remnant circulation spiraled into the Pacific Ocean. With the right meteorological ingredients, this remnant low became a tropical storm again. This time Ernesto was in a different ocean basin, the Western Pacific. Therefore, this storm was labeled Hector.

 

 

This is only the 11th time this has happened on record. It all in a name......

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



 

New Week, Same Results. Yet, Changes Are Looming

We all know it, Texas get hot and stays hot for quite a while. Even the beginning of October can sizzle. In fact, record high temperatures top off in the 90s all though out October. That's great and all, but we would like a reprieve from the heat now. Its September, meteorological Autumn began and football season is here. Good news, a break is near, but we still have to wait a little bit longer.

In the middle and upper levels of the troposphere, high pressure remains in the picture circulating hot air all around us.

Remember: Under domes of high pressure, the air sinks, dries, and heats. In other words, it is tough for clouds to develop, and if they do, they cant grow tall efficiently to create enough water droplets to fall as precipitation. Additionally, with air sinking, it can heat up quick, which is the key reason for above average temperatures.

High pressure will stay still for most of this week, before making a move as a cold front slides down from the north later this week and into the weekend.

 

Within the above forecast image, you will notice two features. One, Tropical Storm Leslie in the Atlantic Ocean, which is poised to move over Bermuda. Two, is a sting of green over the Lone Star State. That string of green is the model putting out precipitation Saturday afternoon. Yes, this means that at this time, rain could be in the forecast for the A&M and Florida game this weekend at Kyle Field. I will keep you updated all week if there are any changes to the forecast.

 

Not only will this area receive some much needed rain, but behind a cold front, cooler and LESS HUMID air will spread all across the area.

 

 

The above image is the forecast panel for Sunday, post cold front at jet stream level. Winds 35,000 feet above the surface have turned from the north drilling in the comfy air mass. Despite a few storms to dance around early in the weekend, it will be worth it to finally add a touch of Autumn here.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.