A Haunting Forecast Before Halloween With Buckets of Rain

For a state that has been desperate for rainfall, we have seen our fair share over the past 6 weeks. From the official reports at Easterwood Airport in College Station, 5.19" of rain fell in September, where an impressive 7.10" accumulated so far this month, with a whole lot more to come. From the latest forecast, its possible that Easterwood could end the month of October with nearly 10" of total rainfall. Last time 10" of rain was recorded in a month at Easterwood Airport, was in October of 2006, 12.89" accumulated. 

What we have going on are several meteorological dynamics coming together, namely moisture, and a lifting mechanism to generate all of these potential rain makers. First of all, the atmosphere has been loading up with moisture from a couple of sources over the past couple of days. At the surface, moisture is being drawn from the rich Gulf of Mexico, while the upper levels are being enhanced from Tropical Storm Raymond in the Pacific Ocean.

When the powerful low over the Rockies glides into the Plains, it will tap into all of this moisture, rapidly strengthen and begin a string of heavy rain and even severe weather. For the Brazos Valley, our main concern will be possible flooding because when it rains, it will come down at a fast clip in a short period of time. Plus, with a fairly saturated ground, any storms that produce strong wind gusts can easily bring down large trees and power lines.

Below is a timescale of how this whole event will unfold with our computer simulations.

Your commute on Wednesday morning should be dry. By lunchtime, several showers will pass by from time to time. Rain becomes more widespread with embedded thunderstorms by Wednesday evening. Overnight and into early Thursday morning, a cold front will edge closer bringing the knock out hit with very heavy rain and even the potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts over 60mph at times.

Wet weather should begin to move out by the early afternoon and trick or treating weather at this time looks fine. If changes do happen with this forecast, I will keep you in the loop. Nonetheless, the entire Brazos Valley will get soaked.

Overall, a general 2"-3" of rain will fall over most of the area with several isolated pockets picking up 4"-5". Due to all of this rain, make sure to stay in the know with the weather if there are any Flood Advisories posted or any Flash Flood Warnings. I will make sure to keep you up to date through the entire storm on-air, online, and on social media.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Wintry Weather In The Brazos Valley?

***Note: I apologize for the lack of images. A few technical difficulties need to be worked out with Blogger. I hope to fix these problems soon.***

Once in a while, the Brazos Valley will welcome Old Man Winter to come and stay. Jack Frost has already paid us several visits with a multitude of cold shots from Canada. On average, this area experiences some sort of frozen precipitation falling from the sky every 2 years. In a 5-10 year window, snow or ice will accumulate once according to climate records. Nonetheless, though ice and snow cause hazardous driving conditions, its a treat to see a rare sight.

At the moment, we have several key elements in play that could help produce light frozen precipitation overnight and early Friday morning. Before I get into the details I would like to mention upfront that this will be no big deal and the roads across the entire viewing area should be fine.

In order for this to work correctly, we need a helping of cold air, and a disturbance to generate precipitation.

You might have noticed how chilly its been lately with temperatures hovering 10-20 degrees below average during the day and around the freezing point at night. High pressure to our north and north west pushed in air from Canada, locking in the chill. Not only are temperatures cold at the surface, but aloft as well. That's good if you want snow or sleet.

Additionally, an upper level disturbance sits to our west which has already caused havoc in west Texas. Areas from El Paso to Kerrville have reported snow. The most interesting reports came from Guadeloupe Pass in Pine Springs, TX. Pockets of heavy snow and gusts near 50mph have been spotted. With reduced visibilities, Pine Springs has had moments of blizzard-like conditions.

The same disturbance will move into northwest Texas and eventually though Oklahoma. During this time, pockets of light precipitation will fall across the Brazos Valley. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the path of low-pressure does not favor widespread snow for us. However, with cold air in place and arrangement of temperatures in the upper levels, there is a possibility of light sleet or even a few snowflakes that could fall from the sky.

Mainly, this will be a light rain event, but from time to time, you might see an ice pellet or wet snowflake. Any frozen precipitation that falls will melt when it comes into contact with the ground. Therefore, I do not expect any ice accumulations on the roads. Just make sure to keep it easy tonight and tomorrow as some roads could be wet.

Overall, this will not be a big deal, but something to be aware of. Maybe down the pike there could be some snow in our future. For now, keep your eyes to the sky.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.