Possible Severe Weather Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, but incredible heat fronted the headlines this afternoon. This morning, the official low temperature only managed to dip to 69°, which happens to be a new record high, minimum temperature for the date. The old record was 67° from 1999. Additionally, with aid of sunshine, the mercury soared into the 80s, and broke a record high temperature. Officially from Easterwood Field, the high temperature eclipsed 82°, breaking the old record from 1982 and 2002 of 79°. Despite a lack of rainfall and storms today, breaking two temperature records along with 30mph+ winds make for a conversation starter around the water-cooler. Yet, there will be rain and several strong storms in our area soon.

At the moment, an area of low pressure swirling on the lee-side of the Colorado Rockies will be the focal point for generating strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas though the Mid-West. This is the same body of low pressure cranking up the wind here today and tomorrow. Over the next 24-36 hours, the center of low pressure should move out of the Rockies, into northern Oklahoma and towards Missouri. Plus, a cold front will hang back and swing though the Brazos Valley as well as most of Texas tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of this front, the air is much warmer than average, and there is plenty of moisture continuing to stream from the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the set ingredients in play, and a dynamic cold front will produce a line of thunderstorms with the possibility of damaging winds.

Aloft, winds at the jet stream level will be so powerful, there will be a possibility of tornadoes here, with a much better chance for tornadic activity in northern Louisiana, Arkansas and western Mississippi. Whats important to know here with the jet stream diagram to the left, the wind at the surface and 30,000 feet above the surface are basically lined up in the same direction. In other words, the tornado threat will be minimal, but any storms that form, have the capability of carrying these stronger winds aloft, and bring them to the surface. Therefore, some of the strongest thunderstorms will likely plow though with winds gusting over 60mph at times. Furthermore, after analyzing the newest data coming in, hail will be possible with a few storms as well. However, in order for hail to form, updrafts need to be strong. In order for this to occur, enough sun need to come out tomorrow to intensify destabilization. 

Overall, timing of this event should be between 3pm and 9pm Tuesday afternoon/evening. Exact Trac pans out the strongest storms slicing though the heart of the viewing area around 6pm. Even before the strongest storms move in, areas of rain will make the roads wet for the evening commute. Make sure to ease up on the roads and give yourself several extra minutes to make it safe to your destination. Following the frontal passage and line of storms, drier, cooler air will begin to seep in. 80° temperatures will take a break Wednesday as more realistic weather for this time of the year will settle in for a few days. Also, low temperatures Wednesday night could slide down into the 30s.

This will not be a huge severe weather outbreak, but keep in mind that there will be strong thunderstorms around tomorrow afternoon. Nonetheless, the Brazos Valley will receive widespread rainfall. Most areas will pick up 1/4" of rain with isolated locations picking up nearly 1" in stronger storms. 

I will make sure to keep you up to date as storms erupt.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Close, But No Cigar

A spell of warm air continues to keep temperatures well above average for a majority of Texas here in late January. Most areas have topped off in the 70s, with several locations, such as Hearne and Waco reaching the low 80s. These are not record setting temperatures, but are quite close. High pressure centered to our east helps to turn the wind from the south, rising the mercury and adding moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Higher dew point values have contributed to morning fog as well as a sticky feeling outside. However, there is cold air in sight. The question is, will any of that ooze in here?

Note the regional temperature plot to the right. Most of Texas remains very warm for this time of year. Along the Red River and points north, there is a stark difference. Take a look at Dallas and Oklahoma City. Dallas sits at 78° this afternoon, while a three hour drive north to Oklahoma City is drastically colder by nearly 40°. Between the cold and warm air masses, a slow moving cold front that is nearly stationary is meandering south towards the Brazos Valley. This is not a front that will blast forward, but one that will move as far south as it can until it runs out of steam.If this front does not come though the Brazos Valley, warm air will win out, and the cold air will not touch us.

According to Exact Trac, the front will remain to our north this evening and inch its way farther south overnight. During this time, a south wind will persist and the moisture train off the Gulf will not stop. Therefore, by morning, an overcast will develop and areas of fog will create tricky travel with visibilities in a few spots below a 1/2 mile at times. By the late morning and into the afternoon, the air will sufficiently warm up and the fog will not be a problem. Additionally, breaks in the clouds will allow the sun to come out and temperatures go way up again.

By the afternoon tomorrow, the front should move south, but stall just north of the Brazos Valley. Since we remain south of the front, the warm air will not go away. Additionally, along the front there will be a few isolated showers that form from the afternoon heating, but not many will experience wet weather. From there, the front will lift back north and clouds will mix in with sunshine though the weekend along with several light showers from time to time. By Tuesday a stronger cold front will move by with the possibility of severe weather for parts of northeast Texas and Arkansas. Some wet weather is in the offing for us on Tuesday and I will closely monitor the latest computer models that roll in.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Is Winter Gone?

Officially, Winter has about two additional months before Spring arrives. So no, winter is not gone technically....well at least in parts of the US. However, with the recent pattern of sunshine, and well above average temperatures, if feels like Winter is a distant memory. Its either that, or we are experiencing quite a generous January thaw.

While the Texas sun warms us up, a true arctic blast has moved into areas along the northern Plains, Great Lakes as well as the Northeast. This is some of the coldest air many areas have felt since 2009. Not only are temperatures struggling to reach 0° from Minnesota to northern Maine, but a ferocious wind takes wind chill (or feels like) values down between -30° and -50°. This is a dangerous outbreak that will persist for several days, with additional waves of cold air coming according to several long term computer models such as the highly regarded European model.

What we can see from the incoming data is that the jet stream is aligned in a way where a deep trough covers the east, while on the other side of the country a strong ridge is building out west. Meteorologically, we call this type of pattern meridional. In other words, the wind flow in the upper levels tend to have a north-south orientation which corresponds to lines of longitude, in turn following the Prime Meridian. Furthermore, the atmosphere is always looking to stay in a state of equilibrium, or balance. If one area is hot, another area will be cold, to balance out extremes. There are many other factors, but those are the basics.

Anyway, the jet stream took a large dip over the eastern United States, which opened up the gates for colder air from Canada to move right in.

Over the next 7 days, the current trogh over the eastern U.S. will tend to lift and allow a strong ridge from the west build in over the central Plains.

For us, that leaves the Brazos Valley in the bulls-eye for tranquil weather and above average warmth. Therefore, we can expect a few areas of fog early in the morning, with sun and temperatures in the 70s during the day. Temperatures should peak into the middle 70s by Thursday before our next cold front cools down the air temporarily. Enjoy the outdoors, and despite a low sun angle this time of year, make sure to slap on some sunscreen for added protection.

Its always nice to have beautiful weather like this during the winter, but we need more rain to help the drought across the Lone Star State. Ill keep you updated.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Huge Drought Improvement

Sunshine galore over the past couple of days, with even more to come. However, the early part of January featured plenty of clouds and a wall of water. Many locations across the Brazos Valley averaged between 3-6 inches of rain so far this month. Most coming within a 7 day period between January 7th and the 13th. Despite the heaping portions of rainfall, flooding was not a big concern. On the other hand, the ground, and vegetation were so happy to soak it all in.

In fact, there was so much rain here and across the state of Texas, that the drought situation improved tremendously. Before I show you how we ended up, here is a look at the state's drought monitor looked during last weeks report. On the right is the color coded map indicating where there is drought and where the drought is the worst. Areas in tan to brick red indicate where drought conditions were as of the January 8th report. Brick red represents the worst category of drought, "Exceptional Drought", and tan indicates a "Moderate Drought." Locations shaded in yellow are not in drought conditions, but are noted as "Abnormally Dry." From the January 8th report, here is how the state broke down.

None (no drought or dry conditions): 4.29%
Abnormally Dry (or worse): 95.71%
Moderate Drought (or worse): 83.78%
Severe Drought (or worse): 65.85%
Extreme Drought (or worse): 34.79%
Exceptional Drought (the worst category): 11.41%

From the numbers above, the state is quite dry, but nowhere near the deep drought from the summer of 2011. Again, this is before the massive rains.

Following several wet events, the map looks a lot different, and the numbers show off monumental improvements in just one week. The next image illustrates the current drought situation from the latest report that came out this morning.

When you look at the color scheme, you don't even need to see the statistics to know that the entire state has shown impressive progress in just a week. From the latest report, here are the numbers.


None (not abnormally dry or worse): 9.48%
Abnormally Dry (or worse): 90.52%
Moderate Drought (or worse): 74.01%
Severe Drought (or worse): 50.49%
Extreme Drought (or worse): 20.84%
Exceptional Drought (the worst category): 6.72%


Numbers don't lie, and even parts of the Brazos Valley are not even in drought conditions at this time.

Even though the extended forecast calls for lots of sun and barely any rainfall, its always good to get rain in Texas. I'll keep you updated.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Light Icy Event Tuesday Morning, Maybe Wednesday Too

Seems like a distant memory, but it was only a couple of days ago where temperatures soared into the 70s. However, as this winter season continues to roll on, the main plot stays the same...."It's Cold Out There!" Now, temperatures struggle to move out of the 40s, while overnight lows bottom out near freezing, not good for the farming community. With such cold air in place and disturbed weather coming our way, a possible icy scenario may crop up tomorrow morning. Albeit a light event, but any wintry precipitation can cause problems on the roads.

Saturday night, a cold front moved by and delivered a new batch of cold air from the north. The same front continues to move slowly east, but with high pressure to our north, the cold air is not budging. What you can notice from the illustration on the right is that high pressure flows clockwise and with that motion, a chilly north flow will be persistent as long as the high-pressure system stays to our north and north west. Additionally, whats important about this image is that this demonstrates what is happening at the surface, and not the upper levels. In order for our icy situation to come to fruition, the surface and the upper levels will have to be set up correctly.

This happens to be the case, as the upper level flow shows two main distinct characters. First, there is a flow coming out of the Pacific Ocean in the upper levels, drawing in moisture and warmer air aloft. Two, the flow is quite energetic with disturbances riding along too. Its these disturbances in the upper levels that help to lift the air and generate clouds that can precipitate. When this type of mixture occurs  its hard for snow to reach the ground. Hence, the possibility for freezing rain and ice pellets (also known as sleet).

Warmer air aloft carried by air from the Pacific Ocean will be warm enough, when precipitation falls to the ground, it will be as liquid as opposed to snow or ice crystals. This is where the surface temperatures come into play. Since the air will be much colder closer to the ground, the liquid precipitation that falls to the ground, could freeze during decent as sleet, or freeze on the ground as freezing rain. Therefore, temperatures will be critical tomorrow morning as many locations in our viewing area will be right around 32°, if not just below. Even if the temperature is 34° at your house, sleet can still fall from the sky and create slick spots. However, if the temperature is 32° or below and it looks like its raining, its really freezing rain that will cause huge travel problems.

Based on the latest computer guidance, areas along highway 21 and points north have the best chance to see icy roads tomorrow, where areas south could stay all rain.

Areas in pink represent locations that could have ice tomorrow, where places in green indicate a plain rain.

Overall: This will be a light event and not a big storm. However, if there are any ice accumulation (even if it seems minor) roads will be hazardous.

Timing: Best timing for sleet or freezing rain will be between 3am and 7am Tuesday, before temperatures warm above 32°.

First To Freeze: Bridges and overpasses, as well as secondary roads.

Following tomorrow mornings event, I'm keeping my eye closely on Wednesday morning as well.


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A Texas Sized Rain Storm, Severe Storms Too

If you remember around this time last year, the drought was so bad, that even if you watered your lawn, it would stay brown. However, a storm late in January 2012 brought tremendous rainfall, flooding and even severe weather. It was this storm that began a chain of wet weather events to helping to turn the brown into a beautiful lush green. Another event is setting us as I write this that will hammer the entire viewing area, and in fact most of Texas with a wall of water.

At the moment, there are two main features with this next storm, a low-pressure center at the surface, and another in the upper levels. During this blog, we will concentrate on the low-pressure center at the surface. As of Monday afternoon, the center of low pressure resides in north Mexico with a movement towards the east. By Tuesday afternoon, the center of this storm will slide into south Texas. At this time, intense strengthening will take place, and widespread rain will take shape. 

Along the east side of this storm, a warm front will extend from south Texas to the upper Texas coastline. Ahead of the front there will be a shield of widespread rain with several embedded thunderstorms. In the meteorological world, we call this type of set up, "overrunning precipitation." Where the warm air aloft runs over the cooler air at the surface. Therefore the air lifts, condenses and creates precipitation. During this time, you will notice pockets of light rain early in the day Tuesday, with steadier, heavier rainfall by the afternoon and evening. But here is where the scenario gets interesting. The body of low pressure will move basically due north.

As the low moves north from Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, we will be in an area called the "warm sector." This is an area between the warm and cold front. Temperatures will rise though Wednesday morning, but this also puts the Brazos Valley in a location favorable for severe thunderstorms. Within this region, winds at the ground and aloft tend to have different speeds and directions, plus there tends to be additional instability. In other words, there could be a few storms that create winds greater than 58mph, large hail, and even a tornado. Furthermore, in this zone, rain will come down even harder on Wednesday than what we experience ahead of the warm front on Tuesday.

When it comes to the risk of tornadoes, data shows that the tornado risk will be small. I cannot rule out a few isolated weak tornadoes, but the dynamics of this particular storm do not favor a huge outbreak. Nonetheless, I will keep my eyes peeled throughout the entire storm and keep you in the loop on Twitter, Facebook and On-air.

What we will all remember from this event will be the tremendous rainfall and possible flooding. Because the center of low pressure will move due north from south Texas from Tuesday to Wednesday, rain will fall over the same areas for a 36 hour period. By the end of this, some locations could pick up nearly 6"-7" of rain. Below is one computer models projection on general rainfall amounts from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Again, this will be the general amounts received with pockets of higher totals. Due to the strong confidence in  this rain event, the National Weather Service out of Houston decided to slap on a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for all of southeast Texas from 12PM Tuesday until 12AM Thursday.

Considering the extend of heavy rainfall, I would not be surprised if this WATCH were to be extended into portions of north and central Texas. 

Overall, the simplify things, here is what you need to know:

Tuesday: Light rain becomes heavy during the evening and several thunderstorms will be around.

Wednesday Morning: Rain becomes heavier, thunderstorms could be severe with a small threat of tornadoes.

Wednesday Evening: The storm lifts north and we gradually dry out.

Impacts: Widespread 3"-5" rainfall total with a few locations picking up nearly 7". Flooding will be a concern, along with isolated severe thunderstorms.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Wintry Weather In The Brazos Valley?

***Note: I apologize for the lack of images. A few technical difficulties need to be worked out with Blogger. I hope to fix these problems soon.***

Once in a while, the Brazos Valley will welcome Old Man Winter to come and stay. Jack Frost has already paid us several visits with a multitude of cold shots from Canada. On average, this area experiences some sort of frozen precipitation falling from the sky every 2 years. In a 5-10 year window, snow or ice will accumulate once according to climate records. Nonetheless, though ice and snow cause hazardous driving conditions, its a treat to see a rare sight.

At the moment, we have several key elements in play that could help produce light frozen precipitation overnight and early Friday morning. Before I get into the details I would like to mention upfront that this will be no big deal and the roads across the entire viewing area should be fine.

In order for this to work correctly, we need a helping of cold air, and a disturbance to generate precipitation.

You might have noticed how chilly its been lately with temperatures hovering 10-20 degrees below average during the day and around the freezing point at night. High pressure to our north and north west pushed in air from Canada, locking in the chill. Not only are temperatures cold at the surface, but aloft as well. That's good if you want snow or sleet.

Additionally, an upper level disturbance sits to our west which has already caused havoc in west Texas. Areas from El Paso to Kerrville have reported snow. The most interesting reports came from Guadeloupe Pass in Pine Springs, TX. Pockets of heavy snow and gusts near 50mph have been spotted. With reduced visibilities, Pine Springs has had moments of blizzard-like conditions.

The same disturbance will move into northwest Texas and eventually though Oklahoma. During this time, pockets of light precipitation will fall across the Brazos Valley. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the path of low-pressure does not favor widespread snow for us. However, with cold air in place and arrangement of temperatures in the upper levels, there is a possibility of light sleet or even a few snowflakes that could fall from the sky.

Mainly, this will be a light rain event, but from time to time, you might see an ice pellet or wet snowflake. Any frozen precipitation that falls will melt when it comes into contact with the ground. Therefore, I do not expect any ice accumulations on the roads. Just make sure to keep it easy tonight and tomorrow as some roads could be wet.

Overall, this will not be a big deal, but something to be aware of. Maybe down the pike there could be some snow in our future. For now, keep your eyes to the sky.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Quick Wrap Up of 2012

Seems like when New Years comes around the corner, the previous always seems to flash by. Despite this being the first day of 2013, it hard to grasp that a new year has begun. Just like last year, I am sure there will be ups and downs with the weather.

Despite a prolonged drought in 2011, the beginning of 2012 introduced intense rainfall and even bouts of severe weather. Not only did our area deal with flash flooding, but an outbreak of tornadoes. Some were rated as an EF-2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Although some storms were quite furious, the best news of all is that not one single person was reported injured during any severe weather outbreak early in 2012.

Overall, when you take a look at total rainfall, 2012 was very good to the Brazos Valley. Only 19.97" of rain was recorded at Easterwood Airport in 2011. However, 2012 more than doubled that mark with 41.97". Yes, many of us are still in a drought, but we are in a much better position at this time.

Additionally, you may not think about it due to the recent cold snap, but 2012 is tied for the warmest year on record with an average temperature of 71.6°. The other year to hold the record was.....you guessed it, 2011. Back to back hot streaks.

Nonetheless, every year brings interesting weather to the Brazos Valley, whether it be snow, rain, severe weather, dry spells, cold snaps or even record temperatures. Here at KAGS-HD we are committed to keep you in the loop at all times when the weather changes.

Tonight I leave you with this quote from a famous meteorologist, Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, because its the only weather we got."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.