Light Icy Event Tuesday Morning, Maybe Wednesday Too

Seems like a distant memory, but it was only a couple of days ago where temperatures soared into the 70s. However, as this winter season continues to roll on, the main plot stays the same...."It's Cold Out There!" Now, temperatures struggle to move out of the 40s, while overnight lows bottom out near freezing, not good for the farming community. With such cold air in place and disturbed weather coming our way, a possible icy scenario may crop up tomorrow morning. Albeit a light event, but any wintry precipitation can cause problems on the roads.

Saturday night, a cold front moved by and delivered a new batch of cold air from the north. The same front continues to move slowly east, but with high pressure to our north, the cold air is not budging. What you can notice from the illustration on the right is that high pressure flows clockwise and with that motion, a chilly north flow will be persistent as long as the high-pressure system stays to our north and north west. Additionally, whats important about this image is that this demonstrates what is happening at the surface, and not the upper levels. In order for our icy situation to come to fruition, the surface and the upper levels will have to be set up correctly.

This happens to be the case, as the upper level flow shows two main distinct characters. First, there is a flow coming out of the Pacific Ocean in the upper levels, drawing in moisture and warmer air aloft. Two, the flow is quite energetic with disturbances riding along too. Its these disturbances in the upper levels that help to lift the air and generate clouds that can precipitate. When this type of mixture occurs  its hard for snow to reach the ground. Hence, the possibility for freezing rain and ice pellets (also known as sleet).

Warmer air aloft carried by air from the Pacific Ocean will be warm enough, when precipitation falls to the ground, it will be as liquid as opposed to snow or ice crystals. This is where the surface temperatures come into play. Since the air will be much colder closer to the ground, the liquid precipitation that falls to the ground, could freeze during decent as sleet, or freeze on the ground as freezing rain. Therefore, temperatures will be critical tomorrow morning as many locations in our viewing area will be right around 32°, if not just below. Even if the temperature is 34° at your house, sleet can still fall from the sky and create slick spots. However, if the temperature is 32° or below and it looks like its raining, its really freezing rain that will cause huge travel problems.

Based on the latest computer guidance, areas along highway 21 and points north have the best chance to see icy roads tomorrow, where areas south could stay all rain.

Areas in pink represent locations that could have ice tomorrow, where places in green indicate a plain rain.

Overall: This will be a light event and not a big storm. However, if there are any ice accumulation (even if it seems minor) roads will be hazardous.

Timing: Best timing for sleet or freezing rain will be between 3am and 7am Tuesday, before temperatures warm above 32°.

First To Freeze: Bridges and overpasses, as well as secondary roads.

Following tomorrow mornings event, I'm keeping my eye closely on Wednesday morning as well.


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A Texas Sized Rain Storm, Severe Storms Too

If you remember around this time last year, the drought was so bad, that even if you watered your lawn, it would stay brown. However, a storm late in January 2012 brought tremendous rainfall, flooding and even severe weather. It was this storm that began a chain of wet weather events to helping to turn the brown into a beautiful lush green. Another event is setting us as I write this that will hammer the entire viewing area, and in fact most of Texas with a wall of water.

At the moment, there are two main features with this next storm, a low-pressure center at the surface, and another in the upper levels. During this blog, we will concentrate on the low-pressure center at the surface. As of Monday afternoon, the center of low pressure resides in north Mexico with a movement towards the east. By Tuesday afternoon, the center of this storm will slide into south Texas. At this time, intense strengthening will take place, and widespread rain will take shape. 

Along the east side of this storm, a warm front will extend from south Texas to the upper Texas coastline. Ahead of the front there will be a shield of widespread rain with several embedded thunderstorms. In the meteorological world, we call this type of set up, "overrunning precipitation." Where the warm air aloft runs over the cooler air at the surface. Therefore the air lifts, condenses and creates precipitation. During this time, you will notice pockets of light rain early in the day Tuesday, with steadier, heavier rainfall by the afternoon and evening. But here is where the scenario gets interesting. The body of low pressure will move basically due north.

As the low moves north from Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, we will be in an area called the "warm sector." This is an area between the warm and cold front. Temperatures will rise though Wednesday morning, but this also puts the Brazos Valley in a location favorable for severe thunderstorms. Within this region, winds at the ground and aloft tend to have different speeds and directions, plus there tends to be additional instability. In other words, there could be a few storms that create winds greater than 58mph, large hail, and even a tornado. Furthermore, in this zone, rain will come down even harder on Wednesday than what we experience ahead of the warm front on Tuesday.

When it comes to the risk of tornadoes, data shows that the tornado risk will be small. I cannot rule out a few isolated weak tornadoes, but the dynamics of this particular storm do not favor a huge outbreak. Nonetheless, I will keep my eyes peeled throughout the entire storm and keep you in the loop on Twitter, Facebook and On-air.

What we will all remember from this event will be the tremendous rainfall and possible flooding. Because the center of low pressure will move due north from south Texas from Tuesday to Wednesday, rain will fall over the same areas for a 36 hour period. By the end of this, some locations could pick up nearly 6"-7" of rain. Below is one computer models projection on general rainfall amounts from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Again, this will be the general amounts received with pockets of higher totals. Due to the strong confidence in  this rain event, the National Weather Service out of Houston decided to slap on a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for all of southeast Texas from 12PM Tuesday until 12AM Thursday.

Considering the extend of heavy rainfall, I would not be surprised if this WATCH were to be extended into portions of north and central Texas. 

Overall, the simplify things, here is what you need to know:

Tuesday: Light rain becomes heavy during the evening and several thunderstorms will be around.

Wednesday Morning: Rain becomes heavier, thunderstorms could be severe with a small threat of tornadoes.

Wednesday Evening: The storm lifts north and we gradually dry out.

Impacts: Widespread 3"-5" rainfall total with a few locations picking up nearly 7". Flooding will be a concern, along with isolated severe thunderstorms.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Wintry Weather In The Brazos Valley?

***Note: I apologize for the lack of images. A few technical difficulties need to be worked out with Blogger. I hope to fix these problems soon.***

Once in a while, the Brazos Valley will welcome Old Man Winter to come and stay. Jack Frost has already paid us several visits with a multitude of cold shots from Canada. On average, this area experiences some sort of frozen precipitation falling from the sky every 2 years. In a 5-10 year window, snow or ice will accumulate once according to climate records. Nonetheless, though ice and snow cause hazardous driving conditions, its a treat to see a rare sight.

At the moment, we have several key elements in play that could help produce light frozen precipitation overnight and early Friday morning. Before I get into the details I would like to mention upfront that this will be no big deal and the roads across the entire viewing area should be fine.

In order for this to work correctly, we need a helping of cold air, and a disturbance to generate precipitation.

You might have noticed how chilly its been lately with temperatures hovering 10-20 degrees below average during the day and around the freezing point at night. High pressure to our north and north west pushed in air from Canada, locking in the chill. Not only are temperatures cold at the surface, but aloft as well. That's good if you want snow or sleet.

Additionally, an upper level disturbance sits to our west which has already caused havoc in west Texas. Areas from El Paso to Kerrville have reported snow. The most interesting reports came from Guadeloupe Pass in Pine Springs, TX. Pockets of heavy snow and gusts near 50mph have been spotted. With reduced visibilities, Pine Springs has had moments of blizzard-like conditions.

The same disturbance will move into northwest Texas and eventually though Oklahoma. During this time, pockets of light precipitation will fall across the Brazos Valley. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the path of low-pressure does not favor widespread snow for us. However, with cold air in place and arrangement of temperatures in the upper levels, there is a possibility of light sleet or even a few snowflakes that could fall from the sky.

Mainly, this will be a light rain event, but from time to time, you might see an ice pellet or wet snowflake. Any frozen precipitation that falls will melt when it comes into contact with the ground. Therefore, I do not expect any ice accumulations on the roads. Just make sure to keep it easy tonight and tomorrow as some roads could be wet.

Overall, this will not be a big deal, but something to be aware of. Maybe down the pike there could be some snow in our future. For now, keep your eyes to the sky.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Quick Wrap Up of 2012

Seems like when New Years comes around the corner, the previous always seems to flash by. Despite this being the first day of 2013, it hard to grasp that a new year has begun. Just like last year, I am sure there will be ups and downs with the weather.

Despite a prolonged drought in 2011, the beginning of 2012 introduced intense rainfall and even bouts of severe weather. Not only did our area deal with flash flooding, but an outbreak of tornadoes. Some were rated as an EF-2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Although some storms were quite furious, the best news of all is that not one single person was reported injured during any severe weather outbreak early in 2012.

Overall, when you take a look at total rainfall, 2012 was very good to the Brazos Valley. Only 19.97" of rain was recorded at Easterwood Airport in 2011. However, 2012 more than doubled that mark with 41.97". Yes, many of us are still in a drought, but we are in a much better position at this time.

Additionally, you may not think about it due to the recent cold snap, but 2012 is tied for the warmest year on record with an average temperature of 71.6°. The other year to hold the record was.....you guessed it, 2011. Back to back hot streaks.

Nonetheless, every year brings interesting weather to the Brazos Valley, whether it be snow, rain, severe weather, dry spells, cold snaps or even record temperatures. Here at KAGS-HD we are committed to keep you in the loop at all times when the weather changes.

Tonight I leave you with this quote from a famous meteorologist, Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, because its the only weather we got."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.