Marching Into More Cold Weather

Valentine's Day has past, February begins to wane as March is just around the corner. Here in Texas, only thoughts of warmer weather, blooming flowers, and even severe thunderstorms float through our mind. Hold on one second........you might need to delay your dreams of consistent warmth. Sure this weekend is going to be great with sunshine and temperatures in the 70s by Sunday, but arctic air could still take aim on the Lone Star State.

At the moment, the severity of cold air does not look impressive in Canada at the moment. However, during the next 7-10 days, temperatures will decrease, plus with a healthy snowfall over the Central Plains, any cold front that moves across the Brazos Valley will have an added kick. Maybe not with precipitation, but helping to pull the temperatures down.

Next week, expect THREE cold fronts to move across our region. The first being on Monday to help prime the cold air, and then two more to reinforce it.

Monday's Front:

A few morning showers, but turns very windy and much colder by the afternoon. Expect wind gusts over 30-40mph at times.

 

 

Wednesday's Front:

 

No precipitation, not as windy, but expect overnight lows near the freezing point.

 

 

Friday's Front:

 

Windy during the day, a possible light shower, but overnight lows will dip into the low 30s to upper 20s.

 

 

Despite the thinking that March brings in beautiful warm weather, this time will be different. Make sure to stay in the loop and keep your gardens prepared.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.





Another Run In With Severe Weather

Following a few strong storms Monday, the threat for severe thunderstorms are not done quite yet this week. Despite many tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service yesterday, there was one official confirmation of a tornado touchdowns. A report coming out of San Jacinto County in the town of Shepherd was interesting which indicated that the roof of a house was blown off. Following a survey, the National Weather Service has confirmed an EF-1 tornado touched down in Shepherd....Here is the official report: http://1.usa.gov/Yl8ygh

Nonetheless, a front blew though yesterday, and revealed a wonderful and crisp afternoon with morning temperatures in the 40s, while the afternoon settled in the low 60s. However, our fortune of sunshine will draw to a close tonight. High clouds from west Texas will drift in and blanket the sky. This is all ahead of a powerful low spinning over northern California at this time. Illustrated in the image on the right notes where the upper level energy is, where its already spawning precipitation in the form of rain for lower elevations in California, and heavy bands of snowfall for the higher terrain. Eventually, this upper level low will hook up with a surface feature that will rapidly strengthen on the lee side of the Colorado Rockies.

Extending from this surface low will be two primary fronts, a warm front and a cold front. By Wednesday morning, the warm front will straddle to our south and separate fairly stable air, to unstable air. The Brazos Valley will be on the stable side of the warm front Wednesday, however, warmer air will override cooler air at the surface and generate a shield of cloud cover and light rain fall. This type of situation is called "overrunning" in meteorological terms. Yes, the air is considered stable, but due to mid and upper level forcing, clouds and rain can still exists. Rainfall on Wednesday should be spotty and fairly light. No heavy downpours are expected. On the other hand, rain rates will increase, as well as the possibility of severe weather by Thursday morning.

 

Past midnight on Thursday morning, the warm front will lift north and the cold front will approach the Brazos Valley. Due to the fact that our region will be between the cold and warm front, we will be in a zone known as the "warm sector." Typically, this zone is highly unstable with different orientations of wind at the surface and upper levels. Therefore, expect the temperatures to rise though the morning on Thursday, and as the cold front approaches, thunderstorms will develop. From the latest computer guidance, it does not appear that flooding or hail will be a huge concern. Mainly, the possibility of wind damage and isolated tornadoes will be the primary concern. Due to strong winds sprouting from the jet stream, and storm that does develop Thursday morning will have the ability to rotate, and possibly produce a tornado. Not every storm will create twisters, but I will make sure to keep my guard up, just in case tornadoes do pop up.

 

 

The following two images denote the locations of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma.

 

 

 

 

Timing for strong to severe thunderstorms will be from a 5am to 11am in the morning. Due to an early morning event, some storms will crop up before sunrise and will be tough to see. Make sure to turn on your NOAA Weather Radio when you go to bed Wednesday night and you can stay in the loop with KAGS-HD on-air, and on social media. If a TORNADO WARNING is issued, KAGS-HD will be on the air to let you know the latest.

 

Overall, this will not be a huge outbreak, but the possibility for severe thunderstorms exist with the slight risk for isolated tornadoes.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.





More Asteroids to Come?



This is a news story from Chris Vlahos....KAGS-HD News

Recent stories have come out that asteroids are close to Earth and will swipe by in the blink of an eye. Some, might strike Earth and cause catastrophic damage. Its all possible if everything is aligned in the correct place at the correct time. Even a small asteroid/meteor weighing 20 tons and moving at speeds over 30,000mph can shake buildings and break window. The most recent example occurred this morning in Russia, about 900 miles to the east of Moscow.

It looked like it was straight out of the movie, "Deep Impact." A bright ball in the sky, leaving a trail of dust before slamming into the Earth along with a sonic boom riveting from the site of impact. (Note: Some reports have come out that the meteor never hit ground, but it was the force of the meteor on air creating the sonic shockwaves). It was quite and incredible sight and shows that in just seconds large rocks can barrel though the Earth's atmosphere and cause destruction. Despite a few injuries, this ball of fire did not cause fatalities.

In addition to this mornings events, another asteroid passed by Earth this afternoon. DA14 is the size of an Olympic sized swimming pool and missed Earth by a slim margin of 17,500 miles. Even satellites are farther away than this chunk of rock.

No matter how you slice it, its a bit unnerving knowing that there are rocks hurling at incredible speeds all around us. In fact, there may be more than you might realize.

The image above captured from, IHMC, depicts all of the asteroids within our section of the solar system. Green rocks indicate asteroids that will not harm Earth, while red and yellow dots illustrate "potentially hazardous" asteroids. In other words, the red and yellow asteroids have a very slim chance of colliding with Earth, despite the heightened language used, "potentially hazardous." Finally, the turquoise circle represents Earth's path around the sun.

Regardless of the image above, most asteroids are tracked with precision, however, there can be a few outliers from time to time, just like this morning's example in Russia. Nonetheless, scientists will make sure we stay in the loop if something Earth shattering could happen. But, at this time, keep your eye on the sky.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Another Freeze Coming Our Way?

February has been a month of highs and lows, dry days and wet days, but that's OK. Despite spring training beginning for Major League Baseball, we still need to understand that in this part of the country we are in a transition stage from Winter to Spring. With transitions, anything goes, cold freezing weather as well as warm spells too.

Recently, a push of warm humid air oozed into the Brazos Valley, allowing flowers to bloom and even the eerie comeback of mosquitoes as well as other insects. Furthermore, the spring-like air mass has been quite efficient, generating rounds of rain and even a bout of severe weather this past weekend. Unfortunately, parts of the southeast were ripped apart by major storms producing intense tornadoes.

Yet, we need to keep our guard up, not so much for severe weather, but reintroducing colder, wintertime temperatures. Extended forecast models indicate that a series of cold fronts will move though Texas over the next two weeks. Most will be fairly weak, but a few will pack a punch.

One such front will pivot though tomorrow morning with a round of showers, some could be heavy at times. Behind this one, overnight lows will settle into the upper 30s, while highs zoom up to the low 60s.

By the weekend, a stronger front arrives. This one will be a game changer, not with precipitation, but a huge swing with temperatures. To the left, the jet stream winds are depicted for Sunday morning. Notice how the shape of the jet stream is oriented in a north to south pattern. This allows much colder air from the north to plow though and cool us down in a hurry. We may not notice many changes during the afternoon, but due to the depth of this cold air, a widespread freeze is possible with temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s Sunday morning. Therefore, it may be a good idea to delay your gardening plans for another weekend. Additionally, this may not be the final freeze of the season as more could come, but this is the next one in the forseeable future.

 For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Potential New England Blizzard

With all eyes on the weather across New England, its going to be a waiting game to see what unfolds as a potential "historic" storm. Areas from Boston to Bangor and points inland along the higher elevations in New Hampshire as well as Vermont could measure snowfall in feet. Get the yard stick out, its going to be a doozy.

Here is what will come together. Two areas of low pressure will merge and energize on Friday creating a monster Nor'easter for New England. By early Friday morning, one piece of energy will parallel the coast, while the other will thrust in from the Mid-West. Typically when this scenario set up, the body of low pressure from the Mid-West will transfer its energy to the coastal storm and broaden the precipitation shield. In addition, the upper levels will play an important role. A "short-wave" will quickly pivot towards the coastal storm Friday afternoon and allow it to "bomb" out or strengthen quickly. Therefore, just to the north and west of the center of circulation, bands of extremely heavy snow along with thunder will produce snowfall rate upwards of 4 inches per hour. Furthermore, during this intensification process, the wind field will expand and crank wind speeds over 50mph at times. Therefore, the National Weather Service in Taunton, MA (outside of Boston), has already issued a BLIZZARD WATCH for portions of eastern Massachusetts.

From part of the Blizzard Watch, the National Weather Service used strong language to communicate this alert to the public:

      "...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO

     DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
     SATURDAY..."

According to many computer models, the center of low pressure during the peak of the event will move just to the east of Boston. This means that Boston, and surrounding locations will be in the harshest portion of the storm with highest wind speeds and snowfall rates. However, locations inland and points towards Maine are not out of the woods because a large shield of snow will move over an extremely cold air mass. Boston and the Massachusetts coastline will likely receive a fluffy to occasionally wet snow due to an on-shore flow gearing temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30°. However, in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, the air will be much colder. Therefore, the snow will likely be dry and fluffy. In this case, snow can pile up quickly, despite being farther away from the heart of the storm. Nonetheless, this will be a storm to watch as computer models can change, as well as the overall forecast.

In the meantime, here is how one computer model simulates the storm in its entirety from Friday to Saturday night.

Again, these numbers can change, but this is a good look at how many locations will pick up between 12" and 24" of snow. FYI, sometimes computer models can WAY over predict these type of events. For example, the NAM (North American Model) predicted over 50" of snow in Boston from this storm. Yeah, that's a bit crazy and will not happen, but shows that a big storm is in sight.Stay home and off the roads, and let the plow drivers do their work. 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A Progressive Weather Pattern

In my eyes, the weather could not have been more perfect this Super Bowl weekend. With plenty of sunshine to go around, temperatures in the 70s, and low humidity levels, perfection was here in the Brazos Valley. As our new work week arrived, the weather did not start our bad, just a few early morning showers. However, the way it looks and feels outside will be drastically different. Clouds and higher humidity levels will dominate this week. In addition, several showers will swipe by from time to time.

No winter jackets are needed this week as temperature values remain 10° above average for this time of the year. We are in more of a progressive pattern with a Pacific influence, where the temperatures will not change much, plus in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the flow is generally from west to east. The image to the right displays how the winds 30,000 feet above the surface are aligned. First, note how far north the Jet Stream is. In this case, no arctic blasts are headed our way. Also, with this general west to east movement (zonal flow), weather system and disturbances can move quickly from one part of the country to the other.

Therefore, any bodies of low pressure that try to pass though our region will not be particularly strong and will move by in no time. Several waves of weak energy will move in from the Pacific Ocean and glide over the Brazos Valley this week providing several light showers at times. At the moment, the first disturbance will shuttle though late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Plus, an additional low pressure center will produce another round of showers by Saturday. Eventually, this west to east flow will begin to shift by the tail end of the weekend and become more north to south. What this means for our area, is a better chance for a prolonged rain event and stronger low pressure center Sunday and Monday.

In the meantime, its going to be muggy with plenty of cloud cover and a few spot showers this week. Keep the umbrellas handy and I will keep you up to date with the latest on-air and online.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.