Anyway......the weather over the past week or so has been like a see-saw. Temperatures go up and down, some days are sunny, some are cloudy with heavy rain. Its a sign that the season has changed and Autumn is a transitional time for us. As we move closer to Winter, temperatures will bounce around, and yes, the heat will eventually be completely wiped away. Take a look at temperatures over the past 5 days, quite a difference from the weekend to this afternoon.
Following a cold front, the high Sunday only reached 63°, which is the same as our average temperature for December 9th. This afternoon however, we bounced right back into late summer with highs near 90°. Within a few days, we go from one extreme to another. The remainder of the week seems to be favoring a warming trend with high sticking around the upper 80s to near 90 with mid-90s by next week. Yikes!!!! That's hot!
Additionally, a front that was moving towards us this morning, decided to stall and is currently receding back north. Behind this front, it felt more like the middle of winter this morning in parts of Texas.
Folks in Amarillo woke up to bone chilling cold for this time of the year. While we remain on the warm and humid side of the front with lows in upper 60s along with patchy fog. Expect more of this right through the rest of the week, until another front tries to get going by the second half of the weekend.
Right now, the next weather warrior sits outside of California and could cause some big trouble this weekend.
This upper level system is harmless at the moment, spinning in some clouds and showers along the California coastline. However, it's upper level energy will strengthen rapidly with a few more crucial ingredients.
By Friday, the upper level energy you can see above 500mb chart, illustrated in yellow and orange over Kansas and Nebraska will shoot out of the Rockies and blossom into a larger scale storm that could produce severe weather well to our north. Not only is the increase in strength taking place at 500mb, but even higher up at jet stream level.
Notice the patch of blue from New Mexico towards Nebraska. This is called a jet streak. Jet streaks are important for storm amplification. From the shape and movement of this feature, it is apparent that storms will erupt on Friday and Saturday from the Central Plains to the Upper Mid-West. Additionally, this jet streak will not only generate long lived thunderstorms, but help to twist storms, increasing the chance for tornadic development.
According to the GFS model above, rain will spread from Wisconsin to north Texas on Saturday, with the heaviest storms around Illinois. For us in the Brazos Valley, there is a slight shot of a few showers early Sunday, most indications show that this front will fizzle out and we could be left hanging dry once again.....I will keep you updated.
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