Many Puddles To Come

If you are familiar with one of America's most famous bands, Green Day, I am sure you have heard them say, "Wake me up when September ends....." For those that have been snoozing over the dry weather this month and dreaming of a healthy rainfall, well the final days of September will make your dreams come true. As you wake up on the final Saturday of the month, rain will be upon us, and quite a soaking is in the mix as well.

As we have addressed in the newscasts this week, there will be two crucial keys to this forecast, a front, and moisture flowing in from the Pacific Ocean. From the latest computer guidance a front to our north will only play a minor role, where tropical moisture and the formation of low pressure will be our primary concern.

Miriam, which once was a Major Hurricane, entrained much drier air and weakened significantly over the past few days into a Tropical Depression. Nonetheless, all of these tropical cyclones are rick with moisture. I have to say Miriam is quite a courteous storm, by sharing its remnant moisture with us.

Above is a snapshot of the Water Vapor Imagery. Basically, this gives meteorologists an illustration of how moist/dry the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere is. Due to upper level wind flows, Miriam helped to moisten up our air mass quite considerably yesterday and this afternoon. Despite rich moisture above, our problem is a lack of dynamic lifting to kick start organized cloud development, which in turn generate rainfall.

"Not so fast...."

Late Friday evening and into the day on Saturday, a surface storm will develop and trigger the atmosphere to make it rain.

 

Rainfall will begin to spin around a body of low pressure in West and Southwest Texas before making a move towards the coastline by Saturday evening.

 

 

At the moment, it's tough to pin point where the highest amounts of rain will fall, but generally, highest totals will fall just to the northwest of the center of circulation around the low. From what I can see, there will be a stripe of rain amounts 3"+ along the coast, with lower amounts farther inland.

 

Nonetheless, we will scoop up a fair share of the wet stuff to help green up the grass.

 

Additionally, timing of this rainfall is not 100% certain. At the moment, showers should begin to break out by Kickoff for the Aggies game against the Razorbacks. During the afternoon Saturday, rain will become more widespread and increase in intensity. Looks like if you are going to the game double up on the ponchos.

 

Several lingering showers remain early Sunday before clearing out Sunday afternoon. Following this event, the weather will be beautiful next week.

 

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