I am sure that most of you who are reading this blog are very familiar with Hurricane Sandy, as well as a potential blockbuster storm for the east coast. Many names come to mind when I was reading articles online and glancing at Twitter feeds. "Frankenstorm", "Megastorm", "Freakstorm", even notes about a Hurricane/Nor'easter hybrid, and finally comparisons to the "Perfect Storm" of 1991.
No matter the name, no matter the exact physics of the storm, whether its a warm core tropical cyclone or a cold core mid-latitude cyclone, forecasts are calling for a major impact event from Florida to Maine.
Questions still remain to be answered exactly where this storm will go. Models have begun to agree and gel together indicating that Sandy will move parallel to the east coast and eventually hook left (west), creating massive destruction. That said, additional data needs to be compiled for more confidence. Good news, is that more data will be coming. The National Weather Service will launch weather balloons 4 times each day at local offices, rather than twice, to get a better idea of the atmosphere's upper level structure. Once added balloon data is meshed into the models, forecast confidence will go way up. At the moment, we will not know 100% about the movement of the storm into the east coast until Saturday morning.
Anyway, back to the larger picture....how to communicate this type of potential disaster?
1) Its good to be aware, but make sure to tell the truth in what you know and what you don't.
What we do know is that there is a hurricane moving though the Bahamas and has the potential to move into the east coast early next week. Key word being POTENTIAL. Meteorologists use this term, because we base our forecast on computer simulations as guidance. The reason why you might hear television stations "hype" this event is due to the fact that many models agree that something big might happen.
Note: There are still a couple of outliers that try to take this storm well away from the coast, but a vast majority show an east coast landfall.
On the other side of the spectrum, when you look at history....this type of event is so rare that there is no comparison. Its OK to tell your audience how unique this situation is and why an official forecast is tough to nail down.
Tell them what you know and don't know....be honest.
2) Naming a storm a good thing?
Yes, and no.
Names stick to people's head and are used as an ice breaker around the water cooler. Additionally, if there is an underlying meaning, then the outcome will determine if the storm was worthy of the given name. Names can always make or break the public's trust in scientists, especially meteorologists.
Whether Sandy is used, or "Frankenstorm", communication though impacts is a better use of time, and mean more. Basically, rather than using a name, we need to tell the public that something unique could take shape, with potential high impact threats.
When it comes to a storm, the general public typically does not care about the science, just how it will affect their livelihood.
3) When should the "hype" come though fruition?
Since all the data has not been fully integrated, broad forecasts are best. Scenarios work in this situation. From there, the public should be aware of all the options due to uncertainty. But label each option with a level of confidence.
Once the data if fully ingested and a true pin point forecast can be made (which in my eyes seems like early Saturday morning), stronger, more dominant language should be used if danger is imminent.
From there, we need to answer a laundry list of questions for potential impacts in specific locations.
Where will it rain? When? How Hard? Where is the highest potential for flooding? How high will the waves be along the coast? Coastal erosion? How windy will it be?
Can this storm on its current path blow my house down? What about my boat on the dock? Will my family be OK?
Overall, this type of storm should be handled with care. Its good to see that people are aware of this meteorological event, but still too early to call exact shots. Furthermore, this is a perfect time to teach the public about how difficult forecasting can be though the science of meteorology.
Mixing teaching and forecasting can be the best way to communicate such a rare event.
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