Extreme Heat Is Gone...For Now...Any Rain?

The heat we had here across the Brazos Valley on Tuesday was a dooooozy. Easterwood Airport in College Station officially hit 106° which broke the old record from 2009 of 105°. Additionally, the humidity has been sky high, making the heat index or "feels like" temperature over 110° at times.

Now we are going to switch from an extreme heat pattern to one that is quite warm, but much more humid.

High pressure will be centered over the northeast quadrent of the Gulf over the coming days. Note the circulation around high pressure, which is clockwise. Therefore, the wind will generally come from the southeast, or off the warm/moist Gulf waters. Due to the extra moisture in the air, we will see additional cloud cover, and the temperatures will fall back into the mid 90s. Thea reason why temperatures will not soar over 100° is due to extra water vapor (humidity) in the air.

When the atmosphere has additional water in the air, the sun will not be able to heat up the Earth's surface as efficiently, because it takes additional energy to heat up due to the moisture. On the flip side, if the atmosphere was dry, it would take less energy to heat up the air and temperatures would rise quickly.

The overall point is that the afternoon highs will not be extreme, but with the abundance of humidity, it will be warm and muggy at night.

By the weekend, a small area of upper level energy will swing by the western Gulf and spawn widspread showers and storms that will move inland due to the overall clockwise flow around high pressure.

Most of the rainfall will hug the coasline, but some will come inland.

We could use a good soaking around here and I will update you if we have a better chance of that happening this weekend. So far, looks like a mainly dry weekend with the best shot of seeing any showers here on Sunday.

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Tropical Storm Debby Not A Concern For Texas

As the newest information comes in from the National Hurricane Center, the computer models are able to pick up on this storm a whole lot better. Right now, Debby will sit and spin in its current location with a slight movement towards the north Florida coast over the next 4 to 5 days. Due to very weak winds and absent steering currents in the upper atmosphere, Debby will not only stay basically stationary, but dump 20-30 inches of rain in isolated locations in Florida. Flooding will be the primary concern, but Debby will also produce several weak tornadoes as well from Orlando to Jacksonville.

Here is the latest forecast over the next five days from the National Hurricane Center:

Due to this path, Debby will not produce any rain here in Texas, she will crank up the wind a bit over the new work week, that's about it. It would have been nice to receive the rain from Debby, but this storm is a miss for now. Remember, the hurricane season is young.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.  

Tropical Storm Debby Update

I hope you are all enjoying the weekend. Despite the heat across our beautiful state, the humidity has been held in check. We rose into the 90s, but it felt great outside. Temperatures will continue to climb over 100 tomorrow and right though the early part of this coming week. Clouds will increase, and now there is a better chance of seeing some moisture from what is now Tropical Storm Debby.

This is a shot of Debby, and what is interesting here is that the center of circulation was reported by the National Hurricane Center, to be on the far west side of that band of clouds you see above. Most of the rain and heavy wind is on the east side of Debby due to a west to east flow in the upper levels. However, this wind shear will begin to calm and that will allow the tropical storm to begin a strengthening and organizational process. In other words, storms will fill in and wrap around the true center of circulation over the following 48 hours.

Additionally, as discussed in the previous blog, we talk about how the models were all over the place, but the trend showed more of a westward movement towards Louisiana and Texas. That is still the trend and the National Hurricane Center agrees. The following is Debby's current forecast track over the next five days.

The white cone you see above indicates where the CENTER of circulation will be over the next five days. There is a possibility of a landfall in Louisiana, but also a possible scenario with a landfall over the Texas Gulf Coast. Due to this trend and forecast track from the Hurricane Center I will monitor this situation closely. Additionally, note how Debby barely makes any progress over 5 days. If this track and speed hold true, this will allow sufficient time for strengthening before a landfall.

At the moment, Debby has maximum sustained winds of 50mph with higher gusts. Slowly, but surly, Debby will have stronger winds over time. No threat to Texas over the next 3 days, but beyond that, I will take this storm seriously and update you accordingly.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.  

UPDATED: Tropical Trouble For The Brazos Valley?

THERE IS AN UPDATE TO THE BLOG AT THE BOTTOM.....

At the moment there is a disturbance that is in the east central portion of the Gulf of Mexico, where the center of circulation appears to be just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of clouds, storms and heavy rain is showing very slow movement. However, over the weekend, this cluster of tropical rains will get its act together. Once this "storm" has a more defined circulation and strengthens, we will be able to better forecast its movement and path of impact. Any area along the Gulf Coast is fair game, but let me show you the possibilities and where the computer guidance is trending.

The following image is a host of computer models that illustrates where the center of circulation will move over the next 5 days.

Due to this wacky look, we call this a "spaghetti plot." We just hold off the marinara sauce. Bottom line here is that there are a handful of weather models that indicate that this disturbance will move towards the central Gulf, but from there, models are all over the place. Some models take this "storm" towards Florida, and some towards Texas. This will be a waiting game until strengthening takes place over the weekend.

What I can tell you is that an area of high pressure that will sit over the heart of the U.S. this weekend and early next week will have a huge role in where this "storm" goes.

Blazing heat will spread across the Lone Star State though the Dakotas, but its the circulation around this high that could steer the "storm" in the Gulf. Wind flows clockwise around high pressure and therefore, could catch the disturbance and bring it towards the western Gulf next week.

The following are images of solid forecast computer models and where they are trending.

NOGAPS

UKMET

ECMWF

NAM

Note how these models indicate a low pressure center, most likely a tropical storm or hurricane and move it towards the Texas Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Many models are trending this way, but anything can change from now until then. This is just to give you a heads up that there is a possibility of tropical moisture moving towards our area.

Nonetheless, locations in Florida will recieve drenching rains....the question is....will we see this wall of water? Time will tell, but I will keep you updated.

UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has now classified this storm as Tropical Storm Debby. As of the latest forecast, the NHC has the Texas Coastline as a possible target for Debby in the middle of next week, but still anything can change.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.