Tropical Storm Debby Update

I hope you are all enjoying the weekend. Despite the heat across our beautiful state, the humidity has been held in check. We rose into the 90s, but it felt great outside. Temperatures will continue to climb over 100 tomorrow and right though the early part of this coming week. Clouds will increase, and now there is a better chance of seeing some moisture from what is now Tropical Storm Debby.

This is a shot of Debby, and what is interesting here is that the center of circulation was reported by the National Hurricane Center, to be on the far west side of that band of clouds you see above. Most of the rain and heavy wind is on the east side of Debby due to a west to east flow in the upper levels. However, this wind shear will begin to calm and that will allow the tropical storm to begin a strengthening and organizational process. In other words, storms will fill in and wrap around the true center of circulation over the following 48 hours.

Additionally, as discussed in the previous blog, we talk about how the models were all over the place, but the trend showed more of a westward movement towards Louisiana and Texas. That is still the trend and the National Hurricane Center agrees. The following is Debby's current forecast track over the next five days.

The white cone you see above indicates where the CENTER of circulation will be over the next five days. There is a possibility of a landfall in Louisiana, but also a possible scenario with a landfall over the Texas Gulf Coast. Due to this trend and forecast track from the Hurricane Center I will monitor this situation closely. Additionally, note how Debby barely makes any progress over 5 days. If this track and speed hold true, this will allow sufficient time for strengthening before a landfall.

At the moment, Debby has maximum sustained winds of 50mph with higher gusts. Slowly, but surly, Debby will have stronger winds over time. No threat to Texas over the next 3 days, but beyond that, I will take this storm seriously and update you accordingly.

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