The Drought Is OVER!!!!

I am pleased to say that the drought of 2011 has been erased when the official US Drought Monitor was released at 7:30am this morning. What is remarkable about this improvement, is that it only took about 3 months to erase one of the worst natural disasters in this states history. That said, there are still many places in Texas considered to be in a drought, but the Brazos Valley is not under any official drought condition.

The following images are the official drought monitor that was put out this morning and the second image is a close in view of the Brazos Valley.

What you will notice is that we are still considered to be "abnormally dry." However, this is not considered to be within the drought categories. Also, look at the state as a whole. There is a stark difference between east Texas and west Texas. A lot of work remains for Big Bend and surrounding areas, but at least the state as a whole continues to pull out of this disaster.

The question is.....will we hop back into another drought? Tough to say right now, but one wonders because we crawled out of this one in such little time. What I can say is that a phenomenon called La Nina is weakening and is turning into a neutral phase. Basically, waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have been much colder than average (La Nina). Now they will return to average temperatures (neutral phase) by the end of April. Therefore, if further warming occurs, then we will be in and El Nino phase. During the summer, this phase will favor average rainfall and average temperatures.

Overall, many questions still to be answered about the long term future, but we are not likely to fall into another prolonged dry spell for the next several months.

Finally, the rainfall we received yesterday and today, just helps us even more.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews.

Quiet For Now...Active By Next Week

Any synonym for beautiful describes out weather this past weekend and even early this week. Mornings were a touch cool, afternoons were warm, humidity levels were low and there was plenty of sunshine for everyone. High pressure has been sitting over us and is sluggishly moving eastbound. Due to this slow progression in the weather we will continue to experience this repetitive pattern. However, once this high moves far enough to the east, humidity will return, as well as the clouds, and even some rainfall.

At the moment, there is a trough sitting along the lee side of the Rockies that will eventually bring us greater rain chances by the end of the week.

In order for the Brazos Valley to see any rainfall, we need this trough (black dashed line) to move closer in. Troughs focuses air and allows it to lift into into the atmosphere. As air lifts, it cools, condenses, turns into clouds formations and eventually rain droplets will fall. If we do not have a "lifting mechanism" like a trough or a cold front, widespread rainfall cannot occur. By Thursday and Friday, this trough will be close enough to spark several isolated showers across the area. Overall, a washout is not in our near future.

On the other hand, models are indicating that the pattern will become more active by the end of the weekend and into next week. The jet stream will strengthen over the Pacific Ocean later this week and enter the west coast by the weekend.

At the moment, there is a storm in the Gulf of Alaska, but as the jet stream becomes more active, additional storms will ride along the upper level atmospheric highway.

The follwoing is an image of the upper level energy by late Sunday:

Notice the dip (trough) that lines up with the lee side of the Rockies and into the Texas panhandle. This is an indication that there is extra "spin" and lift in the atmosphere helping to destabalize the atmosphere. Additionally, a cold front will be ahead of this trough at the surface aiding in cloud and thunderstorm development.

Look at the jet stream level on Monday:

Due to this deep dig of the jet stream into the Plains, colder air is riding on top of the warmer air at the surface. This will further instaiblity and thus creating rain and thunderstorms. Furthermore, colder air from Canada will pour in following the passage of the front.

In the meantime, enjoy the current weather before changes occur. This remains several days out and I will keep you up to date if there are any differences in timing and if the forecast changes.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews.

Wonderful Weather This Weekend

Get out the rod and reel this weekend, its going to be perfect for fishing or any outdoor activity as a matter of fact. Lake levels are up and ready to go. Also, the vegitation is flush, so hitting the golf course will be a great idea as well.

Our latest upper level low is long gone and high pressure will dominate for the next several days. Therefore, the wind will be light, clouds will be absent, and humidity levels will be in check. You can expect warm afternoons with highs in the low to mid 80s, while the overnight periods will be cool as the murcury drops into the upper 50s.

All around a great weekend and I hope you all enjoy it.

Some humidity and clouds come back next week with a few light showers by Thursday. No big storms in our near future.

Flooding & Drought Update 3/22/2012

Flood Warnings continue for many rivers and streams in our area from the heavy rainfall earlier this week. The following information are for flooded rivers, their flood stage and forecast:

Little River @ Rockdale:
Flood Stage: 30 feet.
Forecast: Last observation showed the river level at 30.10 feet and minor flooding was occurring. Water is beginning to flow back into its banks.

Trinity River by Long Lake:
Flood Stage: 35 feet.
Forecast: Moderate flooding continues as the water level will rise to nearly 43 feet by Saturday.

Navasota River @ Easterly:
Flood Stage: 19 feet.
Forecast: As of this morning the river level was estimated at 24.93 feet with moderate flooding. Water is beginning to recede and should be below flood stage Saturday morning.

Navasota River @ Normangee:
Flood Stage: 15 feet.
Forecast: Water levels continue to rise with flooding. Levels should top out to 20 feet this evening.

Additionally, I want to pass along that we continue to pull farther from our deep drought. Latest Drought Monitor shows that the entire Brazos Valley is now in a "moderate" drought.

A moderate drought is the first stage of a drought and therefore, we are very close to concluding the long term devastation. However, we still need to conserve water whenever we can. Because as quickly as we are pulling out of this drought, it can easily come right back. However, its wonderful to see the dramatic improvement in such a short period of time.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews.