Quiet For Now...Active By Next Week

Any synonym for beautiful describes out weather this past weekend and even early this week. Mornings were a touch cool, afternoons were warm, humidity levels were low and there was plenty of sunshine for everyone. High pressure has been sitting over us and is sluggishly moving eastbound. Due to this slow progression in the weather we will continue to experience this repetitive pattern. However, once this high moves far enough to the east, humidity will return, as well as the clouds, and even some rainfall.

At the moment, there is a trough sitting along the lee side of the Rockies that will eventually bring us greater rain chances by the end of the week.

In order for the Brazos Valley to see any rainfall, we need this trough (black dashed line) to move closer in. Troughs focuses air and allows it to lift into into the atmosphere. As air lifts, it cools, condenses, turns into clouds formations and eventually rain droplets will fall. If we do not have a "lifting mechanism" like a trough or a cold front, widespread rainfall cannot occur. By Thursday and Friday, this trough will be close enough to spark several isolated showers across the area. Overall, a washout is not in our near future.

On the other hand, models are indicating that the pattern will become more active by the end of the weekend and into next week. The jet stream will strengthen over the Pacific Ocean later this week and enter the west coast by the weekend.

At the moment, there is a storm in the Gulf of Alaska, but as the jet stream becomes more active, additional storms will ride along the upper level atmospheric highway.

The follwoing is an image of the upper level energy by late Sunday:

Notice the dip (trough) that lines up with the lee side of the Rockies and into the Texas panhandle. This is an indication that there is extra "spin" and lift in the atmosphere helping to destabalize the atmosphere. Additionally, a cold front will be ahead of this trough at the surface aiding in cloud and thunderstorm development.

Look at the jet stream level on Monday:

Due to this deep dig of the jet stream into the Plains, colder air is riding on top of the warmer air at the surface. This will further instaiblity and thus creating rain and thunderstorms. Furthermore, colder air from Canada will pour in following the passage of the front.

In the meantime, enjoy the current weather before changes occur. This remains several days out and I will keep you up to date if there are any differences in timing and if the forecast changes.

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