Thursday, January 5, 2012

First Big Storm of 2012

Since we turned the page to 2012, the weather has been fairly tranquil. This pattern will last for the next few days, right though the weekend. Overall temperatures will be a good 10 to 13 degrees above average with a fair amount of sunshine. However, late Sunday night and into Monday, atmospheric ingredients will come together and evolve our first big wet weather maker of the year.

Recently, when cold front have passed the Brazos Valley, they tend to be weak and not pack much of a punch of cold air. For example, the front that came though yesterday, only knocked temperatures down a by a single degree. Plus, there was no moisture, therefore, all we saw where a few passing clouds with no precipitation.

This front will be a lot different by Monday morning. The current image will show you the surface set up:


In typical fashion we have a cold front to our north and west. Behind the front, its drier and cooler, and ahead of the front, its warmer with more moisture. However, when this front enters the Brazos Valley early Monday, it will slow down and stall. Additionally, a developing area of low pressure will ride along this front to kick in an abundance of lift and energy. Therefore, clouds will quickly develop and yes, widespread rain will be the story.

Here is how everything will change by Monday:


The low pressure center will ride along the front and produce heavy rainfall. At the moment, computer information is outputting 1-2" of rain for East Texas. This storm has yet to take shape, and there are several more days for changes in the computer models. Right now, the time frame of Monday and early Tuesday will be the best chance for wet weather. Furthermore, if the timing shifts, the rain amounts will reflect the changes.

By Tuesday, rain will shut off in the afternoon and we begin to dry out before the next cold front arrives with a cold shot from Canada.

We will keep you up to date with the latest information here at KAGS-HD.

2 comments:

  1. Jared, steer it North. We are severely snow deficient up here in Vacationland. Hope all is well down south. Go Sox!

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  2. Justin,
    This storm will eventually hit the east coast. one to watch for you guys in maine. at the moment, the air looks too wamr for snow. things can change.

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