In A Flash: New Research at Texas A&M, Creating More Accurate Lightning Forecasts

The show is amazing; sporadic bright flashes of light illuminating the sky. It can be unpredictable, but advanced research happening in our own backyard will make lightning easier to predict.

Dr. Richard Orville at Texas A&M has created a new advancement to his National Lightning Detection Network.

At the moment, the current National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) serves the contiguous 48 states, monitoring lightning 24 hours a day. Not only does this network detect cloud to cloud lighting, but cloud to ground lightning in 30 minute cycles. However, Dr. Orville created a devise that will speed up the process and make it more reliable.

Dr. Orville explains, “Now that has been upgraded within the last year, so it’s a very reliable network. It’s a Lightning Mapping Array; it detects all electrical discharge from lightning….So we are plotting and making available on the Internet the locations of lightning really in 15 - 20 minutes before lightning comes to ground."

What makes this Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) so special is that it is 100% reliable, because it uses solar panels for power, as well as a wireless signal to collect and report the data. Furthermore, lightning flashes can now be detected on average 15 minutes sooner, and in turn allow additional lead time, and help meteorologists forecast more accurately.

Despite one lone sensor in Bryan, it works together with a larger network in Houston, monitoring the entire Brazos Valley.

There are no current plans to expand this network, but Dr. Orville notes that larger metropolitan areas will likely see these new devises first when the time comes.

With this new research in place, we may now know if lightning really does strike twice.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

GREAT Weekend Weather

Compared to the past two summer's, this season has been a breeze so far. Recently, typical summer heat and humidity levels have made it very uncomfortable to be outside for an extended period of time. However, some relief is on the way for the weekend.

In the mid-levels of the atmosphere, a piece of energy called a "short-wave" is helping to spawn strong thunderstorms in northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas this afternoon. In addition, a "cold" front at the surface is trailing this system.

This front will be a huge game changer and shift our current pattern dramatically. Along and ahead of the cold front, thunderstorms are extending though west Texas. Eventually, as this front edges closer to the Brazos Valley, a few communities will have a period of heavy rainfall.

From the newest computer guidance, rainfall will not be widespread, but more spotty. Also, any storms that do pop up this evening will have the potential to drop heavy rain, generate lightning, as well as gusty winds. In our neck of the wood, all thunderstorms should not be severe. Timing of these storms will fall between 9pm tonight through 4am tomorrow morning.

Once the actual cold front passes by the Brazos Valley, the air mass will be noticeably different. Humidity levels will go way down Saturday, and temperatures will hover around 90°.

 

Most areas north of the front are enjoying beautiful mid-summer weather, and eventually we will be there very soon. At the moment, the comfortable air will stick around for Saturday before the Gulf invades the muggy stuff again for Sunday. The entire weekend will be great, but make sure to take advantage of the amazing weather Saturday will offer.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Weather Makes A U-Turn

We have been pointing at several really hot days coming up during the weekend, but sometimes the weather likes to take a U-Turn.

High pressure to our west in the upper levels of the atmosphere has been acting like a force field, blocking any storms trying to move into the Brazos Valley, and deflecting them away. Now this feature will begin to slightly break and it appears that some wet weather is coming back into view, in turn, keeping the scorching heat away.

In the meantime, a surface front, basically stationary, remains to our north. Disturbances and storms tend to ride along this path and drench cities in its path.

As high pressure begins to break this weekend, disturbances will have the ability to move closer to the Brazos Valley. In other words, keep the wet weather gear handy.

The following image is a print out of the NAM computer model, simulating the weather for Saturday afternoon.

 
Notice the green shades over southeast Texas. This is an area that has a good potential to experience several showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Additionally, a few light showers may linger into Sunday. Not only will this weekend weather feature keep the temperature well below 100°, but more importantly, help to green our lawns.

I will keep you in the loop in case there are any changes in the forecast. Make sure to join KAGS-HD at 6pm & 10pm for the latest on your forecast.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

High Pressure Promotes Heat

This weekend was a refreshing change as several downpours danced into the Brazos Valley soaking many areas. Doppler radar estimated totals around 2-3" of rain in a few communities for both Saturday and Sunday combined. However, there a report coming from south College Station on the border with Wellborn confirming 1.20" of rain in a 30 minute period on Sunday. However, those days are gone and the July sizzle came roaring back.

The key reason for the promotion of the abundant sunshine and heat originate from an are of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

From the arrows drawn on the image above, air tends to flow away and clockwise around the center of high pressure. However, its what happens in the "vertical" (up and down) that tells the true tail of our current stretch of hot weather.

In the "vertical," air tends to sink, or move downward. As this process occurs, air begins to compress, dry, and in turn heats up. Therefore, widespread upper 90s and temperatures are the result of this latest pattern. It all depends on the relationship of low level features teaming up with upper level features that will spell how hot it will actually get. Sometimes, there can be so much "sinking" in the "vertical," that the temperatures can heat up to nearly 110°.

Just know that the weather will be hot right through the weekend and make sure to stay cool as well as hydrated.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.