Stuck In A Pattern, Will It Rain Soon?

Despite being out of the drought officially, the green grass is slowing fading to a brown color due to the lack of precipitation this month. On this final day of April, a grand total of 0.57" of rain fell this month at Easterwood Airport. This has been the driest month for this area since 0.29" of rain fell for the month of August last year. And our outlook does not look much better over the next couple of week as this steady pattern holds strong.

In the above image there are two distinct features, a high pressure cell anchored from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean, and a low sitting on the lee side (east side) of the Rockies. Due to this surface flow.....storms that form will either crop to our west, north or east, but not here.

Overall, it will continue to be breezy, warm, humid and generally dry. There will be several pop up showers from time to time, but the best energy continues to rotate around us with the best rain chances from west Texas to Oklahoma and up though Indiana.

Additionally, notice the low from the above image that is over the lee side of the Rockies. A dry line is extending from this low into west Texas and is providing enough life in the air to spark off several thunderstorms, some are severe.

You can see on this radar image that there are several light showers here, but the best lift and energy remains to our west and north. Storms in west Texas will stay put and not enter the Brazos Valley.

That's the current set up, and there is no relief from the dry weather in the near future. In order to understand why....we need to look at the upper level features.

This is a look at the jet stream level (approximately 35,000 feet above the surface). From Texas to the east coast, there is a minor ridge, or even split in the flow. A "split" flow is considered to be a blocking pattern where the weather in a given area will remain similar for an extended period of time. This includes us. Therefore no big soakers are in the offing this week. But how about next week??????

At the moment, long term computer guidance shows that the "split" flow faded, but is replaced by an upper level ridge. In other words, any type of storminess will again rotate around us and we are left in the dust. I cannot rule out an isolated shower, but as far as a widespread rain event.....it looks very unlikely.

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Will The Drought Come Back????

The newest Drought Monitor was released earlier today and parts of our area that were in the all clear have slipped back into the "abnormally dry" category. These counties include Burleson and Brazos. This does not mean we are back in a drought, but this is a precursor stage to possibly going back into a "moderate drought." As of the latest almanac from Easterwood Airport, 21.31" of rain accumulated since the first of January and so far, that is 9.84" above average. From these numbers, we should be in good shape right???? Well not really, you need to compare this month to the following three.

Precipitation that fell for the firth three months of the year, especially in February and March took the entire Brazos Valley out of the long term drought. However, a mere 0.57" of rain fell this month so far. Additionally, since April 4th, only .17" of rain has been recorded at Easterwood Airport. Several locations, such as in Washington and Grimes counties experienced over an inch of rain due to strong thunderstorms, but the general trend has been towards drier weather, which is what we dont need.

Long term computer guidance suggests that in the next two weeks, there will not be any significant storm to strike southeast Texas.

Recently, the overall pattern features a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains, where all the energy and storminess would ride around the high. Basically, all of the precipitation cant penetrate the high pressure cell and rotates around it to our north. Once this upper level trend flattens, they we will increase our chance for rainfall. This will likely happen by the end of the coming weekend and into next week.

Several showers are in the forecast early next week, but no large blockbuster rain events. So the question remains....are we going back into a drought? That cannot be answered for the long term picture yet, but I can tell you in the short term, it is possible if this drier than normal trend prolongs. Also, during the summer months, we will transition into an El Nino phase.

If you are not familiar with El Nino, all this means is that the waters along the equator in the Pacific Ocean warm above average for a time. Typically, in an El Nino setting, this area tends to receive average precipitation amounts. If this holds true then we will be fine, but any shift in the upper levels could put us back into another dry summer that would dig a deeper hole for this area. Time will tell, and I hope we get the necessary rain we still need. No need to panic yet, just keep your guard up.

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2012 Hurricane Season Is Approaching Fast

We are just six short weeks away from the beginning of hurricane season. June 1st is the official start to the 2012 season which does not look too grim. In fact, when you look at the data, this season should be below the short term averages from 1995 to 2011.

The past couple of years were fairly active when it comes to the amount of storms that actually formed. Despite few land falling storms, some packed a punch, namely Irene last season. But no matter the forecast or the actual outcome of the season, "it only takes one" to make it an active year.

In 1992, there were only 4 named storms all season. However, during that season, category 5 hurricane Andrew lashed Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast.

1983 was comparable to 1992, with only 4 names storms, but category 3 hurricane Alicia barrelled into Houston/Galveston.

Always be prepared even if the forecast is for a "quiet" season.

One of the premiere meteorology universities, Colorado State recently came with their forecast. They are calling for a calmer than average season.

The averages you see on the graphic are from 1995 to 2011. The long term average from 1950 includes 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (category 3 and higher).

Reasoning's behind the forecast this season includes cooler waters in the Atlantic Ocean, plus we are going to phase into an El Nino pattern. During an El Nino pattern, the winds in the upper levels increase which are great for individual thunderstorms, but tend to shear out (rip apart) larger storms such as hurricanes. Not only do tropical cyclones need a warm environment to grow, it needs to be fairly calm as well. "Quieter" seasons tend to fall when El Nino patterns form.

Again, "it only takes one" storm to make landfall for any season to be considered active. Make sure to always be prepared.

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April Snow Showers Bring May....?

While all is quiet here in the Brazos Valley, the Northeast, especially Pennsylvania and New York continue to experience a rare late April snow storm. As of this afternoon, snow continues to fall at a heavy clip along the Allegheny Mountains in Pennsylvania. Laurel Summit, located in western Pennsylvania picked up over 18 inches of snow, and the crazy thing is....it continues to snow there. I would not be surprised if their final total ran around 22 inches. Look at the Doppler Radar image from this afternoon, the snow is not going anywhere until late tonight.....

This was all part of a dynamic storm that climbed up this east coast this past weekend. Several low pressure centers were associated with this storm, but it was the upper level low that is sitting over Pennsylvania which drilled in the cold air allowing precipitation fall as snow. Furthermore, the upper level jet stream bowed down into the southeast further enhancing the chilly air that spread along the Appalachian Mountains and adjacent coastline.

When meteorologists forecast, not only do they look at what is happening at the surface, they look at the upper level features as well. Typically, what happens in the upper levels translates down to the surface. This is one of the reason why we follow the jet stream so closely because its the largest barrier between warm and cold air. There are other factors involved with this upper level feature, but separations in air masses are the biggest component.

As cold as it is in the east, the center of the country, including the Brazos Valley continuously sees a bright sky overhead as a strong ridge of high pressure remains in charge.

Under this ridge, which happens to be part of an "Omega Blocking Pattern" will slowly move east with time. If you are not familiar with an Omega Block, basically this is an upper level pattern where the strongest winds way above the ground have the shape of the Greek letter omega. This is a slow moving weather patter where the calm weather is in the center of this block, whereas the western and eastern sides are cloudy, cold, and damp.

Expect our weather to be warm with barely any bumps in the roadway. Any storms that from in the Rockies this week will ride up and around the High Pressure center, steering the rain away from us. By the way, we could use more rain because since April 3rd, Easterwood Airport recorded only 0.17" of rain. Finally, due to this type of atmospheric set up, heat will begin to build under this ridge. Therefore, the days will get hotter and more humid throughout the week. When I say heat, I am talking about triple digit heat in West Texas where some locations could top off around 105° to 107°. Now that's hot.......

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