Shhhhhh......The Weather Is Vewy Vewy Quiet

During my childhood years, I was all about Saturday morning cartoons. In fact, I was all about cartoons 7 days a week. Despite the ever changing landscape of how toons are evolving in media, Looney Tunes have always been a staple all across the spectrum. One particular character comes to mind which parallels this weather pattern perfectly, Elmer Fudd. Every episode, he always said his famous tag line, "Shhh! Be vewy, vewy quiet.... I'm hunting wabbits!"

While Bugs Bunny is off the hook, Daffy Duck is not because most of Texas is currently in Dove and Duck hunting season. But whether you are hunting or going the A&M game this weekend, the weather will be quite enjoyable due to our latest long lived pattern.

High pressure at the surface has been anchored from the Maritimes of Canada to the front range of the Rocky Mountains. Additionally, this weather feature has not budged at all which is the key reason why the past several days, and the upcoming weekend will feature similar weather day in and day out. Plus, when you look at the orientation of this a north to north east flow remains at the dominate wind direction. Therefore, the cool and dry air continues to shuttle in.

 

Overall, this equates to mornings with temperatures in the 30s and 40s, where afternoons spike into the 60s, and eventually the 70s by early next week. Several high, thin cirrus clouds will mix in with the sunshine, but in the big picture, this weather is awesome for outdoor activities.

 

On the horizon, our next "significant" possibility of rain will be on Tuesday, next week. If anything changes I will keep you up to date. For now, enjoy this weather and take it all in.....

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



First Freeze of The Season For Some

We knew that one of these days, there was going to be a cold front that meant business. Quite a difference ahead, and behind the latest boundary. A plume of 80s spread all across central and southeast Texas yesterday, but today was a whole different story. Truly a deep polar air mass carved itself out though a majority of the country including here, in the Brazos Valley.

Highs this afternoon have only managed to reach the low 60s. In comparison, our average high this time of the year is around 73°. Despite temperatures being below average this afternoon, the bigger story will be the low temperatures overnight. Just like a game of limbo....the question is....how low will the temperatures go?

In the wake of our latest cold front, not only has high pressure moved in, but much drier air. It so happens to be that dry air will be a key ingredient in the temperature forecast tonight.

Take a look at the following image which displays the dew points:

We tend to use this number a lot in the summertime to show you how humid it is, but on a night like tonight meteorologists use it differently.

Tonight we will have "radiational cooling". In other words, conditions will be ripe for afternoon solar radiation to escape into space and allow the temperature to drop. For ideal radiational cooling you need three ingredients:

1) Clear Sky

2) Light Wind

3) Dry Air

We will have all three tonight, however the dew point temperature tells the tail that this is as low as the air temperature can go. I will tell you off the bat that it will not be 17° tomorrow morning in Dallas because this is not a mid-winter air mass. However it will get quite cold. Additionally, this is as low as the temperature can go because if the air temperature cools to the dew point temperature, then condensation will occur (cloud or fog development). Condensation is a warming process and the temperature will begin to go up.

Nonetheless, expect low readings tomorrow morning with some areas, especially for Milam, Robertson and Leon counties to dip just below 32° for a time. And yes, there will be a few spots that hit the upper 20s too!

 

Because of this first threat for freezing temperatures, the National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning for our northern counties from 3am to 9am Tuesday morning.

 

 

 

Due to the fact that we will be entering the colder months, its a good idea to take care of a few chores around the house to keep you warm and safe.

 

1) Make sure to wrap your pipes with insulation so they don't burst.

 

2) Seal off your windows and use weather stripping to keep the cold air from seeping in.

 

3) Cover plants that are sensitive to cold weather.

 

4) Keep the pets indoors. If we don't like the cold, they don't like the cold either.

 

Finally, on average, freezes occur in this part of the country from November 28th to March 2nd. 





For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Several Storms Sunday Evening

From the latest computer guidance, I feel more confident on the timing of our next cold front as well as the character of thunderstorm development. In the mean time, winds will continue to whip at a clip near, if not exceeding 30mph at times through Sunday.

Its not just windy here, its all over the southern Plains. The winds were gusting near 40mph this afternoon in Dallas and Oklahoma City. That would blow your boots off. Additionally, direction of the wind is important ahead of the next cold front. A general south to south east flow is helping to unlock additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. More moisture means that storms that develop on Sunday have ample fuel to work with.

Currently, our weekend weather warrior is slowly cycling around the Rockies before making a move towards the Plains.

This mass of clouds and isolated precipitation does not look too threatening, but when a strong jet stream along with mid-level energy catches up to this, the storm as a whole will strengthen rapidly. The main body of low pressure will move from the Rockies towards Minnesota Sunday. Plus, an elongated cold front will stretch from the parent low, all the way down to south Texas.

As the cold front approaches the Brazos Valley, it will interact will all of the moisture in play, plus moderate to strong wind shear (change of wind speed and direction with height). This will initiate thunderstorm development Sunday evening, but the strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop just to our north.

The following image details mid-level energy that helps to prolong the life of a thunderstorm, and kick up the strength a notch.

The area circled denotes the best forcing, and highest likelihood of severe weather. Therefore, northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma will have the best atmospheric set up for storms to develop large hail and strong damaging winds.

Due to this potential, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, OK, has highlighted this area for a Slight Risk of severe weather on Sunday.

 

This does not mean that the Brazos Valley is 100% out of the woods.

 

 

Weather To Expect: From 2pm and later, expect a line of thunderstorms to develop. Some may produce torrential downpours along with vivid lightning. Yes, there is a small chance that one of two of these storms could be severe.

 

Timing: 2pm to 8pm Sunday.

 

Severe Risk: Low

 

I just want to note again that we will have a few storms, but the strongest will be to our north and east. If the forecast changes, I will inform you. Plus, if any severe weather strikes, I will keep you up to date with the latest. Nonetheless, enjoy your weekend, but keep an eye to the sky Sunday evening.

 

Finally, behind this front, it will turn sharply colder Monday.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

 



The Weekend Severe Weather Rumble

Following the latest cold front, weather across the entire Brazos Valley has been picture perfect. Sure, it was a chilly start, but this afternoon was nothing short of perfection. A burly dome of high pressure that is responsible for this outstanding Election Day weather will slowly begin to drift eastward. Therefore, each afternoon for the remainder of the week will slowly get warmer and warmer. Plus, by Thursday, you will notice the wind will pick up ahead of our next big weather maker.

At the moment, all of the computer models are spitting out a cold front which should sweep across the entire Plains and eventually move to the east coast late this weekend. Before diving into additional details, the timing is not yet 100% set, but for now, it looks like the Brazos Valley can expect a frontal passage from late Sunday night through Monday morning. Once the timing is easier to glean, I will make sure to update you on the latest.

Presently, built up energy for the next storm is bottled up in the Gulf of Alaska.

 

This mass of swirling clouds will shift into the Pacific Northwest and start a journey though the entire lower 48.

 

Several ingredients will be key in the full evolution. First, strong vorticity (mid level atmospheric spin), and second, very quick jet stream winds.

 

By the second half of the weekend a vigorous trough with embedded vorticity maxima (areas of intense cyclonic spin), catch up to the surface low and generate intensification. Additionally, this will help lift the air further, producing even taller thunderstorms which live longer.

 

Take strong vorticity, and add an energetic jet stream in the upper levels, and you have a recipe for widespread severe weather.

 

Note: At the moment, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday though Monday will be along a line from Kansas to Wisconsin.

 

 

Notice how the fastest winds in the darker blue line up well with the mid level forcing. Not only does this allow storms to become more dynamic, but allows for additional wind shear (changing wind speed and direction with height), in turn can set up an environment for tornadoes.

 

Due to the potential of severe weather expected, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already highlighted a region to watch.

 

 

 

Overall, the following image will illustrate the models forecast at the surface for Sunday.

 

 

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across the Plains. Again, it looks like the timing for the Brazos Vally will be between Sunday night and Monday morning for this cold front to move by. Ahead of the front, a few storms will greet us, with the most incense severe weather well to our north. Behind this system, windier, and much colder.

 

When you compare cold front. The front that is forecasted to move in by the end of the weekend is much heartier than the front the swiped by yesterday.

 

I will keep you updated with any changes in the forecast.





For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.