Interesting Forecast Coming Up.....

For the most part, this summer has been tranquil, hot, humid, and fairly similar to most summers. Now that we are going to turn the corner with Autumn creeping closer, colder air in Canada begins to brew. Therefore, cold fronts will swing down to the lower 48 more often, and yes, even us here in Texas will feel the effects of changing weather. The next cold front that comes are way could provide some much needed rainfall.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the sky shimmers a beautiful royal blue, while heat remains seasonal, but the humidity is striking back. Nonetheless, the weather is a snoozer for now, but to our north west is our next game changer.

 

 

Just like the front that plowed through last week, this one will sweep in and turn down the heat a notch. Yet, the interesting factor is that a secondary body of low pressure could develop in the upper levels. In other words, rainfall could last for a couple of days.

 

 

Typical monsoonal flow spreads rain for locations in the 4 corner states to Nevada this afternoon. But, this front is on the move, and the air behind this could produce the first snowfall in the Colorado Rockies later this week. Yup.....Autumn is getting closer, and I am sure the ski resorts in the Rockies are ecstatic.

 

Despite a few light showers here and along the Texas coast tomorrow, the weather really begins to show signs of changing on Thursday.

 

 

 

The GFS weather model notes the front slicing through the upper Mid-West and bowing down into Kansas Thursday morning. Additional humidity comes into the mix, and along with some instability, several showers and thunderstorms will be isolated around the region during the afternoon.

 

By Friday, as the front moves closer, rain becomes more numerous.

 

 

The image above illustrates the front's position by Friday morning. At the moment, it seems like the front will move through the Brazos Valley sometime Friday afternoon. Then the wind will begin to shift from the north, importing cooler air. However, this does not completely mean the rain will shut down. A feature in the mid-levels could prolong the rain into late Saturday or early on Sunday.

 





 

Upper level charts, as in the model above shows a weakness in the overall flow. It seems here that a secondary body of low pressure formed in the upper levels, and broke off from the main stream. This is quite typical, and is called a "cut-off low." Here it does not seem like the system is 100% cut off, but nonetheless a feature that needs to be monitored. If this were to hash out, then clouds will stick around and the rain as well. Since a "cut-off" is separate from the main flow, these type of feature tend to move sluggishly.

 

Due to this possibility, the model output a band of heavy rain over east Texas Saturday afternoon.

 

 

Right now, its something to watch, and the forecast can change from each model run. I will make sure to keep you updated. Overall, the take away here is that there could be a good chance of rain here from late Thursday to late Saturday.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Cold Front: Double Edged Sword

We have been waiting and waiting for a cool down, but more importantly, relief from the humidity. Our next cold front is still running as planned, scheduled for Saturday morning.

As of this afternoon, air that resembles early Autumn unfolds over the northern Rockies.

Not only can you decipher the stark contrast between the air masses with the actual temperatures, but note the color illustration on the map. Oranges and yellows will eventually will be painted across Texas, but still one more day of heat.

 

By Friday morning, the front remains to our northwest. Temperatures are expected to climb between 98° to 103° during the afternoon. Ahead of this front will be storms that line up ahead of this boundary. However, the front will slide by our area early Saturday morning. Therefore, any storms that fire up on Friday, will likely collapse before they get here. We miss out on the rain.....but we do not miss out on heat suppressant.

 

 

Not only will it be much cooler, but humidity will be down and the wind will kick up early Saturday morning during tailgating for the A&M game. Since the air will be so dry and the wind will gust between 20-25mph, a wildfire could ignite rather quickly. Make sure to be mindful of that as you tailgate. Keep on eye on your BBQ and quench any burning coals or fires before you enter the Kyle Field gates.

 

Nonetheless, just one more day, and then we can turn off the A/C at home....at least for a little while.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

 

What's In A Name? From Isaac, Ivan, And Even Ernesto to Hector

It dawned on me this morning when the National Hurricane Center (NHC) depicted an area of circulation headed for the Gulf of Mexico, that Isaac is no more. It turns out that the same storm which pounded the central Gulf Coast and spun multiple tornadoes through the Mid-West could have a sister soon to be, Nadine.

Forecasting tropical cyclones is tough enough, but naming a storm can be difficult in itself.

Below you will notice the path Issac took from the Gulf of Mexico and into the US.

 

 

Note how the remnants of the center of Isaac moved into areas in Indiana and swirled towards Kentucky. If Isaac has enough push back into the Atlantic or Gulf and regained tropical characteristics, then we would be talking about a headline stealer....again. Something more interesting actually took place. While Isaac's main circulation was around the Mid-West, a secondary circulation took shape over Mississippi and Alabama. In other words, a piece of Isaac broke off and became its own form.

 

As of this afternoon, that piece of energy is moving south towards the Gulf coast.

 

 

Yes, the NHC has their eyes on this closely as tropical formation is possible. Additionally, if this were to become a tropical storm, Isaac's name would not be used, but rather the next name which has not been used, Nadine. Due to the fact that this was not the main circulation, but rather a new (secondary) circulation that parted from the parent storm, this is considered to be separate.

 

On the other hand, there have been storms which reformed while keeping the same name. Category 5 Hurricane Ivan from 2004 comes to mind. Following landfall in Alabama, Ivan traveled though the Appalachians, weakened, and took a course back into the Atlantic Ocean. Despite losing its tropical character and becoming a remnant low, Ivan took a U-Turn back to Florida.

 

 

With another dip into the Gulf of Mexico, this remnant low reformed, regained a tropical identity and...what do you know....Ivan was back. Because the SAME parent circulation moved back over water and redeveloped, Ivan kept its name.

 

Ivan is a name that will be remembered for a long time as a devastating meteorological phenomenon, but how about storms that change names? So far we have talked about a new storm forming off an old one and a very long lived rejuvenated system, but storms that move into a new ocean basin can change names.

 

If a storm happen to move from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic name would not stand. It would switch to a name on the Pacific list. A recent example of this would be from this year's Hurricane Season Ernesto.

 

Ernesto plowed though the Caribbean and ripped up in the tall mountains of Mexico. Yet, Enresto's remnant circulation spiraled into the Pacific Ocean. With the right meteorological ingredients, this remnant low became a tropical storm again. This time Ernesto was in a different ocean basin, the Western Pacific. Therefore, this storm was labeled Hector.

 

 

This is only the 11th time this has happened on record. It all in a name......

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



 

New Week, Same Results. Yet, Changes Are Looming

We all know it, Texas get hot and stays hot for quite a while. Even the beginning of October can sizzle. In fact, record high temperatures top off in the 90s all though out October. That's great and all, but we would like a reprieve from the heat now. Its September, meteorological Autumn began and football season is here. Good news, a break is near, but we still have to wait a little bit longer.

In the middle and upper levels of the troposphere, high pressure remains in the picture circulating hot air all around us.

Remember: Under domes of high pressure, the air sinks, dries, and heats. In other words, it is tough for clouds to develop, and if they do, they cant grow tall efficiently to create enough water droplets to fall as precipitation. Additionally, with air sinking, it can heat up quick, which is the key reason for above average temperatures.

High pressure will stay still for most of this week, before making a move as a cold front slides down from the north later this week and into the weekend.

 

Within the above forecast image, you will notice two features. One, Tropical Storm Leslie in the Atlantic Ocean, which is poised to move over Bermuda. Two, is a sting of green over the Lone Star State. That string of green is the model putting out precipitation Saturday afternoon. Yes, this means that at this time, rain could be in the forecast for the A&M and Florida game this weekend at Kyle Field. I will keep you updated all week if there are any changes to the forecast.

 

Not only will this area receive some much needed rain, but behind a cold front, cooler and LESS HUMID air will spread all across the area.

 

 

The above image is the forecast panel for Sunday, post cold front at jet stream level. Winds 35,000 feet above the surface have turned from the north drilling in the comfy air mass. Despite a few storms to dance around early in the weekend, it will be worth it to finally add a touch of Autumn here.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.