Minor Activity In The Tropics

Typically the beginning of the Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin is quite slow, but by August and September, things really begin to heat up. Below is a chart laying out the percentages (%) of the amount of storms that typically generate. The greater the percentage, the greater amount of storms in that given month.

Easy to see that June and July are relatively quite compared to August, September, and even October. This is because the water temperatures reaches its peak and upper level winds favor development and strengthening of tropical systems during this time.

Also, if you are curious, the list of Tropical Storm/Hurricane names begin with Arthur and end with Wilfred this year.

Aside from the typical tropical jargon and names, there is a disturbance that bares watching in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is going to monitor this swirl for further development. At this time, there is only a 20% chance that over the next 5 days, this area will turn into an organized tropical system. Its early in the season and the right ingredients are not in place for a major storm to take shape.

Even the computer models are confused on an exact forecast due to the ragged nature of this system and its disorganization.

Sure, one model brings this into Texas, but that will likely NOT happen. Nonetheless, I will watch this and other tropical cyclones that develop this season for you.

In the meantime, we can sit back and relax as our weather should be repetitive with warmth and tranquility.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

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