Big Weekend With Some Big Heat

As we close out the Dog Days of Summer, temperatures rose again over 100° for many of us. At least there were a few storms out there to cool some locations off. However, we begin Meteorological Autumn (September) the same way we leave Meteorological Summer (August), hot and HUMID. Good news, computer guidance suggests that Fall might be closer than we think.

Note: Tonight will be a Blue Moon. We call this one the Blue Moon because it is the second full moon of the month. The next time this phenomenon happens is in 2015.

First, lets get to the important story of the day......the Kickoff to High School Football! Yes, we have been waiting for this since the winter. Despite the heat outside, maybe watching a little football will give us that Autumn feeling. Nonetheless, several storms have popped up and will dance around by kickoff this evening.

Not every game will see rainfall, but if a storm move into your area, watch out for the possibility of lightning. By 8-9PM each storm should collapse and yield to a dry weekend.

High pressure centered to our east will be the main meteorological focal point for our weather through the end of next week.

 

 

With the jet stream well to the north and high pressure anchored over the central Gulf Coast, the sizzle is on. Don't forget, wind flows clockwise around high pressure. Therefore, the wind will be coming from the southeast (off the moist waters of the Gulf) and keeping the humidity up. Additionally, several sea breeze showers will form, hugging the coastline this weekend and should not propagate too far inland. 

 

Unfortunately, due to this overall flow, clouds, wind and storms could dampen your beach plans this Labor Day Weekend.

 

 

Each morning along the coast will be dry with increasing clouds and several heavy storms by the afternoon, so keep on the lookout when the sky turns dark.

 

Now to some potentially pleasing news. The image above illustrating the jet stream well to the north shows the heat for this weekend. Yet, there is a change to the orientation of this jet as cooler air locked in refrigerator of northern Canada will begin to slowly seep southward. Question is....how far south with this refreshing air penetrate the lower 48? Well.....lets take a look at the GFS model.

 

 

What you are seeing here is a plot of the 300mb (or jet stream level) prog for late next Friday. There are two distinct flows. One coming from northwest Canada that bows into the northern Plains and Great Lakes. The second coming off the Pacific Ocean and gliding across the Rockies to the central Plains.

 

 From this long range forecast, I can glean that the northern 1/3 of the contiguous 48 states will be greeted with a taste of Autumn. At the surface, there will be a cold front that drags across most of the central states and off to the east coast. If the northern stream coming out of northern Canada can push farther south, we will take a break from the heat and humidity. Signs are pointing to a pattern change, but its all a waiting game. Eventually, more cold fronts will swing far enough south, even if we miss this shot of heat relief.

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