Weekend Storms On The Horizon

What a beautiful week so far here in the Brazos Valley. Cool mornings turn into pleasant, sunny afternoons. Also, temperatures have been great. Highs have topped off in the 60s to near 70°. However, changes will begin slowly. Warm air will stick around, but the wind will pick up, also, you will notice more cloud cover Thursday.

This is all ahead of a storm that is developing over southern California at this time.

This storm is tame, but once it crosses the Rockies, not only will this be trouble for weekend travel in Texas, but a large portion of the Plains and the Mid-West. By Friday and Saturday, the center of low pressure will begin to push into New Mexico and eventually Texas. Additionally, several atmospheric ingredients will aid in more rapid intensification.

At the surface, a rich pull of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico will help to produce a broad swath of precipitation from Texas all the way to Chicago. Furthermore, a strong Jet Stream aloft will enhance lifting, allowing for heavy pockets of precipitation. Also, the jet stream will increase the risk for strong and potentially severe thunderstorms from central Texas to Tennessee. On the back side of this storm is much colder air and any precipitation that falls will be in the form of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

Here in the Brazos Valley, any precipitation will be in the liquid form as temperatures should be in the middle 70s. As far as timing, expect several light showers Friday evening along with a gusty south wind blowing in excess of 20mph at times. Saturday morning will be cloudy with an isolated shower. By Saturday afternoon and especially in the evening, thunderstorms will move in from the west and wash us out. Its still yet to be determined if these storms will be severe here, but the threat is possible. Nonetheless, expect a periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning Saturday night.

While we experience the tail end of the storms, areas to our north could pick up a copious amount of precipitation.

The storm moves out Sunday morning, while the wind continues to howl, this time from the northwest. In turn, will make it much colder.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

ICE....ICE....BABY!!!!

I could only recall Vanilla Ice had one big hit, Ice Ice Baby! I admit that I am listening to the top hit while writing this blog that could contain some ice for the Brazos Valley.

The cold front that will move in here has already passed parts of the state where the temperatures contrast between deep south Texas and the Panhandle is quite extreme this evening.

High resolution data shows that the range from high to low across the state is 19° to 90°. Yeah....this is a serious cold front with more Canadian air where that came from. What this map really shows off is not only the impressive shot of arctic air, but how quickly the temperatures will drop once the front actually passes.

What will be interesting to watch as this whole weather pattern evolves is the interaction of the cold air, and the presence of moisture that will hang on behind the front. Besides mid level rotation which aids the production of a wintry mess for north Texas, the upper levels illustrate added moisture coming off the Pacific Ocean.

Not only will this flow from the Pacific Ocean help to warm temperatures aloft, it will bring in an extra source of juice for the formation of precipitation.

Our real concern will not only pertain to the atmospheric profile, but how the temperatures at the surface respond after the cold air advances. As the atmosphere changes following the passage of the cold front, air above the surface should be warmer than freezing. In turn, precipitation that falls from the base of the clouds will melt into rain. However, if the ground temperatures are at or below freezing, then an icy scenario is in our future.

Right now, I do not see any freezing precipitating on Thursday, but there could be pockets of freezing drizzle Friday afternoon and Saturday. In terms of how this event will hash out, the Brazos Valley will avoid the worst of the storm.

A major ice storm is not going to happen here, but a light glaze of ice could form which will cause very ticky travel. Even a little bit of ice can cause HUGE problems. For areas such as Dallas, Fort Worth, Tyler, Fort Smith, Arkansas, a fairly major storm will set up with ice accumulations higher than .25" for many locations. I do not expect that here.

Milam, Robertson, and Leon counties have the best chance in our viewing area to receive a light coating of freezing rain Friday afternoon and Saturday. Bryan and College Station also have the chance for minor ice accumulations, but this is going to be a forecast to closely monitor.

Additionally, I would like to add that the soil temperatures are currently in the 50s. In order to see ice accumulate, the road and soil temperatures need to drop to freezing. Therefore, even if the air temperature hits 32° with rain falling, the initial precipitation may stay as liquid until the surfaces drop to or below freezing.

Whether ice is achieved or not, the weather will be very cold and very windy. Stay warm my friends.


"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Arctic Blast: Round 2

What goes up, must come down! Following a beautiful weekend, the temperatures began to sky rocket into the 70s and 80s across most of Texas to kick start this new work week.

For the second day in December, the average temperature reported at Easterwood Airport in College Station is 65°. Therefore, on this Cyber Monday, if you love warm air, today was a huge bargain for this time of year. In fact, this warm air will hang around through the middle of the week, before a major push of Canadian air heads our way once again. Just like early last week, we will have a repeat performance.

In order to experience a huge shift in our weather, we first need a fresh batch of hard core cold air in Canada and Alaska.



With a core of sub-zero temperatures, this air is poised to make a move into the United States and eventually in our direction. The air will moderate during it journey down, but the whats left will make us grab our winter coats and turn up the heat!

Ahead of the impending cold blast, the National Weather Service has already posted widespread Winter Storm Watches and Winter Storm Warnings for many locations in the northern Rockies and Plains.

Mostly the higher elevations in the Rockies will accumulate large mounds of snow with some locations receiving nearly two feet! Its white gold for all of the ski resorts, not really gold when it comes to traveling.

Nonetheless, the cold air should arrive in the Brazos Valley sometime early Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this push of really cold stuff, clouds will increase and periods of rain will overspread the region. Once the cold front hits and moves by Thursday afternoon, temperatures will drop like a rock as a gusty north wind will help shuttle in our new air mass.

From Friday and into the weekend, expect highs to only reach the 40s with overnight lows dipping into the 30s along side a gusty wind, making it feel even colder. Additionally, clouds and some precipitation will hang back over the cold air, which in turn could cause icy conditions for parts of north Texas around Dallas and Fort Worth.

I will make sure to keep you posted should any changes arise.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Arctic Chill, Arctic Weather, Let's Bundle Up....

We are in a for an interesting ride here in the Brazos Valley. In fact, most of Texas is in for a potpourri of weather, including wintry precipitation. It will first begin with a cold front that will plow away all of this warm air and kick it way out. In its place, a surge of MUCH COLDER air which will move in for the long haul.

As of Thursday afternoon, the front has already passed through most of Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle. Notice the contrast in temperatures between the below freezing air in Amarillo with the heat in San Antonio. This cold front will literally flatten our warmth, quickly.

At the moment, the front should arrive around 3am Friday morning, where the temperatures remain in the 70s, but following the passage of this Blue Norther, we will already cool down into the 40s by 7am Friday. Additionally, there will be several showers and thunderstorms as the front passes. Furthermore, the wind will turn around from the north and gust 30-35mph at times through the day on Friday. Therefore, its going to feel more like the 30s for most of the day when you factor in the wind.

FYI: This will not be a short lived cold spell, it will remain cold for the weekend and most of next week too.

Clouds and showers will hang around on Friday and into the weekend as well. Where temperatures are cold enough, pockets of Freezing Rain and sleet, along with several snow showers will develop in Hill Country and west Texas.

Then another dose of energy will take aim at us by the second half of the weekend.

An upper level low slowly moving eastbound, will hook up with the cold air in place and help to produce snowfall for mainly areas in the panhandle and west Texas for the first time this season. Snow could pile up over 10 inches in a few isolated areas.

What we need to keep our eyes on is how cold it will be as this upper level storm moves over the Brazos Valley. By late Monday, this energy will help to spawn a surface storm along the Texas gulf coast.

Areas of green and blue illustrate where precipitation will be falling. However, with temperatures forecasted to be in the 30s here, it could get a little interesting late Monday and Tuesday morning.

Right now, the air should be just warm enough that any precipitation that falls will all be in the form of rain. Yet, this can change and we will keep you in the loop. If the air does in fact get colder than the forecast above, a period of sleet or freezing rain could occur, mainly in our northern counties (Milam, Robertson, Leon).

Overall, make sure to have your winter coat handy, and an umbrella too. Its going to be a cold, cloudy, and dreary next few days.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.
 

Extreme Cold By The Weekend

Quite and interesting weekend here across the entire Brazos Valley. We have been so used to the cooler and drier air as of late, that the weather this weekend seemed like a big surprise. According to the climate report from Easterwood Airport in College Station, the official high for Sunday was recorded as 84°, just shy of the daily record of 85° set back in 1921. Besides the heat, it was HUMID....yuk!!!  Since, a cold front came by Monday afternoon, which will spill in cooler and drier air.

Overall, it looks like this week should be fairly quiet. Clouds will come back towards the end of the week, as well as additional warmth and moisture. Plus, several showers will be around from time to time on Wednesday and Thursday.

THEN COMES THE BIG SHOW!!!!!!

A pool of Arctic air, building in the northern reaches of Canada will move down into the United States and unleash its fury.

By Friday, a strong cold front will move across the state of Texas cropping up rain and a few thunderstorms on the front side, where the back side of the front will have much COLDER AIR.

Notice in the following diagram that there is a body of high pressure ("H") over southern Saskatchewan, Canada, with a forecasted pressure near 1053 millibars.

This is the GFS's (Global Forecast Systems) simulation of the weather for midnight Saturday. When you add in very cold Canadian air and the potential of a very strong high pressure center to deliver this cold air, this tell me a couple of things.

1) The cold air can move this far south.
2) Yes, the temperatures will moderate, but will still hold its core.

In other words, this weekends weather will make you shiver.

Furthermore, look at the temperature anomalies compared to average with this arctic outbreak.

We are looking at temperatures that will probably be around 10°-13°C (18°-24°F) below the climatological average for this time of the year. Therefore, high temperatures may only approach the middle 40s, with overnight lows in the 30s. Yeah....it cold be that cold around here. But here is the twist.

Typically in our part of Texas, a cold air mass will swing in for a day or two, then the temperatures climb pretty quickly, but this is not the case for this event coming up. Its seems like the cold air could stick around for a longer period of time. Maybe 4-5 days, if not longer, beginning on Saturday.

On top of all of this cold news, snow could fly in parts of the panhandle and west Texas as well for the first time this season.

The forecast can change, but use this information as a heads up that a big change is headed our way this weekend.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Hot Weekend Coming Up!

November in Texas is like a seesaw, temperatures go up, and then they go down....then they go up again. This typically happens during the Autumn season as the cold air is building to our north, and the heat from the summer slowly drifts away. However, this past week was a ride.

We began the week, literally freezing, but now the air has moderated to pleasant levels. Yet, a strong south wind is developing and going to help increase the humidity, and really elevate the temperatures. In fact, we might get close to a record high temperature on Sunday.

During this time, several areas of disturbed weather will rotate in, generating a few light showers from time to time. Any rain will not washout any plans, but could wet the garden just a bit. Furthermore, this south wind that develops, will have gusts that will be on the order of 25-30mph at times both Saturday and Sunday.  Plus, dew point levels will touch 70°....yeah it will be humid too.

No need to worry, because a cold front will come into the Brazos Valley by Monday, taking temperatures back closer to seasonal averages.

Note: Long term models are indicating that there could be another blast of very cold air beginning next weekend (November 23-24)

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Great Weekend Ahead......Then A Polar Plunge

It was a wonderful way to end the work week, a textbook Autumn day. Cool and crisp air, along with a milky white glaze in the sky, courtesy of high level clouds. These clouds will remain with us for the first half of the weekend, and even though it might look like its going to rain, the atmosphere is fairly dry, that any falling precipitation should dry up before it comes in contact with the ground.

Overall, tailgating for Saturday's final home game at Kyle Field should be great. It is upsetting to see the Aggies take Kyle Field for the final time in its current state before construction begins following the match against Mississippi State. However, by 2015, Kyle Field will be filled with even more fans that will make it even louder.

Clouds will begin to thin out Saturday night and give way to some sunshine for the second half of the weekend and Veterans Day too.

By the middle of next week, a huge swing in the temperatures are in the offing.

Very cold air building in Canada is poised to move into our direction. In fact, most areas east of the Rockies will feel some of the coldest air of the season.

Due to a highly amplified trough in the upper levels, all of this cold air will freely move south. At the moment, a cold front will pass through the Brazos Valley early Tuesday morning, kicking up a strong north wind and taking any mild air away.

Additionally, as high pressure crests over the southern Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday night, temperatures should fall into the 30s! This means we need to be on garden alert because there could be several areas near freezing temperatures. Our first frost or freeze could be coming soon. Stay tuned, and I will keep you in the loop.


"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Super Typhoon Haiyan.....Could Be Strongest Ever!

 

You don't have to be a meteorologist to know that the above image illustrates a very strong storm that will cause catastrophic devastation. Super Typhoon Haiyan, shown above could go down as the strongest and most destructive tropical cyclone on record. It's cloud mass covers over 2/3 of the entire country of the Philippines, winds are sustained around 195mph (equivalent to an EF-4 tornado), with gusts of 235mph (equivalent to an EF-5 tornado) at its core. Haiyan's movement is due west at a quick clip which would lead to a small window of time to weaken. Additionally, the latest report noted, based on satellite feeds, that the center of Haiyan had a minimal central pressure of 858mb (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/tdata/wpac/31W.html), which would put this storm as the strongest on record.

At the moment, Haiyan could weaken before landfall with sustained winds of 150mph, however, this storm is moving so fast, that the communities in the path of Haiyan may still experience its full extreme impact.

To view Haiyans final visible image in motion click here.

Besides Haiyan, the other famous storm to make headlines in the western Pacific was Super Typhoon Tip, back in 1979.

At it's peak, Tip had a minimal central pressure of 870mb (which is the lowest official reading on record, before Haiyan could move into the top spot), winds sustained at 190mph, with a width of 1,380miles. Eventually, Tip made landfall over the southern regions of Japan.

Closer the the United States, don't forget about Hurricane Camille in 1969. This storm made landfall along the Gulf coast with sustained winds of 190mph.

Extreme weather happens all the time, but Haiyan may top the charts as the strongest storm on record.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A Haunting Forecast Before Halloween With Buckets of Rain

For a state that has been desperate for rainfall, we have seen our fair share over the past 6 weeks. From the official reports at Easterwood Airport in College Station, 5.19" of rain fell in September, where an impressive 7.10" accumulated so far this month, with a whole lot more to come. From the latest forecast, its possible that Easterwood could end the month of October with nearly 10" of total rainfall. Last time 10" of rain was recorded in a month at Easterwood Airport, was in October of 2006, 12.89" accumulated. 

What we have going on are several meteorological dynamics coming together, namely moisture, and a lifting mechanism to generate all of these potential rain makers. First of all, the atmosphere has been loading up with moisture from a couple of sources over the past couple of days. At the surface, moisture is being drawn from the rich Gulf of Mexico, while the upper levels are being enhanced from Tropical Storm Raymond in the Pacific Ocean.

When the powerful low over the Rockies glides into the Plains, it will tap into all of this moisture, rapidly strengthen and begin a string of heavy rain and even severe weather. For the Brazos Valley, our main concern will be possible flooding because when it rains, it will come down at a fast clip in a short period of time. Plus, with a fairly saturated ground, any storms that produce strong wind gusts can easily bring down large trees and power lines.

Below is a timescale of how this whole event will unfold with our computer simulations.

Your commute on Wednesday morning should be dry. By lunchtime, several showers will pass by from time to time. Rain becomes more widespread with embedded thunderstorms by Wednesday evening. Overnight and into early Thursday morning, a cold front will edge closer bringing the knock out hit with very heavy rain and even the potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts over 60mph at times.

Wet weather should begin to move out by the early afternoon and trick or treating weather at this time looks fine. If changes do happen with this forecast, I will keep you in the loop. Nonetheless, the entire Brazos Valley will get soaked.

Overall, a general 2"-3" of rain will fall over most of the area with several isolated pockets picking up 4"-5". Due to all of this rain, make sure to stay in the know with the weather if there are any Flood Advisories posted or any Flash Flood Warnings. I will make sure to keep you up to date through the entire storm on-air, online, and on social media.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Rain Keeps On Rolling - Robertson County

Since the holidays are right around the corner, we need to make sure that the weather compliments the time of year so we can feel a bit more festive. Recently, we have been in a pattern that favors crisp, cool mornings, with brilliant afternoons. Plus, at times strong cold fronts helped to generate extreme rain storms that have washed away a significant portion of our drought.

 

It was not so long ago, where the entire county was placed back under an Extreme Drought. In fact from the September 3, 2013 report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, Robertson, Leon, Brazos, Madison, Burleson, and even Washington counties were all considered to be in an Extreme Drought, which is the second highest stage of drought. Since, the latest report from October 15, 2013 issued placed all of Robertson County under a Moderate Drought, the first stage of drought. In just a few weeks, major improvements took place.

 

 

 

Take this into consideration, through the entire month of September, Hearne Municipal Airport officially recorded, 6.89” of rain. In addition, through this point in October, another 4.42” of rain accumulated. That is a combine total of 11.31”. Nearly one foot of rain in a short period of time! If we keep this trend rolling, we will be in good shape by then end of the year.

In fact, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released their seasonal drought outlook that extends into the end of January, 2014. Due to the influx of cold fronts, and addition of moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean, rains will continue to occur and the latest trends indicate a potential “removal” of the current drought. Again, this is the long term thinking and do not dictate our day to day weather, but yet trends can be our friends.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Slow and Steady Wins The Race

Over the past week to 10 days, we have had a major shift in our weather pattern. From what I can foresee in the future, our days in the 90s and even mid 80s look like they are done for now. A persistent north the south wind pierced some of the coldest air of the season so far and has kept a lid on the temperatures too. Each afternoon has been tranquil with very low humidity levels, lots of sunshine, and very nice temperatures. The big story here has also been the shocking morning lows.

Early Sunday morning was a tough one when lows dropped into the 40s. Hearne actually reported an official morning low of 40° on the dot. Due to this huge shift, we had to dig deep in the back of the closet and not only take out our recreational jackets, but wool coats too. Well, maybe the wool coats were a bit too heavy, but adds to the description.

Our main driver has been a trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere allowing this colder air to unleash though out the entire state of Texas.

Over the course of the next week and into the weekend, we will see this trough slowly lift to the north east as a strong ridge begins to develop to our west.

This will be a slow movement in the overall upper level pattern, but what you really need to know is that this tranquil pattern will stick around for a while. Also, the cool mornings and mild, sunny afternoons are here to stay right into the weekend. Overall, this will be exceptional outdoor weather.

On one more note, the tropics are still alive.....

Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed earlier today, and will move to the central Atlantic Ocean, well away from any land.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Huge Shift In The Weather, Plus Another Tropical Storm

Right off the bat, I want to show off the great news that came out today.

There it is........the latest Drought Monitor indicates that from all of the rain over the past three weeks, we have dug out of a deep hole. At the beginning of September, most of the Brazos Valley was under an Extreme Drought. However, all the rain took us down to a Moderate Drought, with parts of western Washington County still under a Severe Drought. Nonetheless, our situation has dramatically improved.

Speaking of dramatics, between now and Saturday, a huge swing in the weather is in the offing. A powerful low pressure center will strengthen rapidly over the next 24-36 hours over the Rockies producing drenching rainfall and very heavy snowfall.

We will not see any snowfall, but as the parent low lifts into the northern Plains, the trialing cold front will swing by Saturday producing several early showers and maybe a thunderstorm. By Saturday afternoon, the front will fully pass and deliver in a gusty north wind making the air outside feel much different than our current situation.

Not only will this front steam roll all over the humidity, much cooler air will arrive as well. Daytime highs will still be around 80° Sunday and Monday, the bigger story will be the overnight low temperatures. This layer of cold air is deep enough to take the mercury in the thermometer down into the 50s by Sunday morning and possibly a few of us experiencing upper 40s Monday morning. BRRRR!!!! That's cold. Time to dig through the closet to find our jackets from last winter.

On top of all of this action, Tropical Storm Karen is brewing in the central Gulf of Mexico and will eventually make landfall anywhere between the eastern Louisiana coast and western Florida panhandle.

Karen's track and intensity may change over the course of the next few days. I will keep you up to date with the latest on KAGS-HD News at 6 & 10. Also, you can log onto our website www.kagstv.com

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

A September to Remember: Robertson County

Now that Summer is in the rear view mirror, we can look forward to all the wonderful weather the Autumn season has to offer. What’s great about this transition is that weather patterns tend to have more variation as opposed to a static form on a day to day basis. As we all know, Summer has sun, heat, humidity, and very little rainfall. However, as colder air builds in Canada and the northern United States, cold fronts will be more frequent visitors. This means rain will be part of our nomenclature more often, and temperatures will tend to fluctuate up and down easily. Despite easing our minds that wet weather will come around more frequently, September really went out with a bang.

If you were to combine the entire rainfall totals collected at the official reporting station in Hearne from May to August of this year, 7.29” was recorded. Now, compare that to the whole month of September, where an astounding 6.89” fell, in just one month. That is what I call a drought helper.

In the beginning of September, there were a few minor weather events that dropped insignificant amounts of rain, but the story was really what happened at the end of the month as cold fronts began to swoop in. On September 20^th, 2.10” of rain fell. September 28^th, 1.59” was recorded. The final knockout punch occurred September 29^th, where 2.81” fell.

I hope this keeps type of weather keeps coming in our direction because we continuously are in dire need of more wet weather. What I can tell you in the near term is that yet another cold front will move in by Saturday increasing our chance for rain, and significantly changing temperatures. Afternoon highs this weekend should remain in the 80s, but the largest contrast will occur in the mornings where temperatures could drop into the 50s for both Sunday and Monday mornings. Shorts and short sleeves now will turn to jackets sooner than you think.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

RAIN IS COMING!!!!! :)

We have been waiting for this moment for basically the entire summer. Its our first big shot at rain, plus it comes with a cold front that will dramatically change the face of our weather from Friday and into Saturday.

There are several players involved with our next system, and all of the essential ingredients are coming together very well. First, a fetch off the Gulf of Mexico is drawing in rich moisture that will enhance how much rain we will experience in total. Additionally, a cold front to the north and west will swing by, interacting with the Gulf moisture combining for a free car wash.

As far as this evening, several showers will be around, but it will not be a washout. Into Friday morning's commute, areas of light rain will break out. By the afternoon, the cold front will edge closer and generate widespread heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms across the Brazos Valley.

Thunderstorms that erupt will remain below severe limits. At times the wind could gust over 30mph along with frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. Heaviest rain should fall between 3PM - 11PM. This will be tough for the evening commute and for area High School Football games. Yes, the game will go on in the rain, however, delays and even cancellations could occur if lighting is in the area. Make sure to stay aware of the weather all day long. You can always go to KAGStv.com for the latest, you can check out our social media feeds or even download the KAGS-HD Weather App, its the has the best and most up to date radar in town.

Moderate to heavy rain will stick around though midnight and then tapper to a few lingering showers by Saturday morning. By then, the sun will begin to come out, and a very nice flow from the north will significantly reduce the humidity levels.

 

From Saturday afternoon through Sunday, the weather will be marvelous. Between now and then, a lot of rain will be falling. How much???? Well some of the computer models think upwards of 4" in several spots.

 

 

Use the above image as guidance. In other words, yes, it will rain, and there will be a lot. 2-3" of rain is a good possibility, with several locations picking up 4-5". Therefore, since there will be a lot of rain in a short period of time, flooding could occur. If you are driving and notice a road covered with water, make sure to turn around and take an alternative route. You never know how deep that water is and its best to avoid the risk.

 

Overall, keep the wet weather gear handy all day. We have been waiting for this and our time has come. Enjoy the rain, be safe and I will keep you in the loop.

 

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android. 

Ingrid Made Landfall & A Taste of Autumn May Fall

After talking about Ingrid and its origins for a week or so, the storm finally made landfall in Mexico, about 200 miles due south of Brownsville. The unfortunate side of this story is that despite Ingrid's significant weakening, its a very slow moving system. With storms from tropical origins, rain can come down very hard in short periods of time. Flash flooding and even landslides have posed a multitude of problems south of the boarder with this phenomenon.

Rains from Ingrid are reaching areas from south Texas to San Antonio, and even the Brazos Valley might see a few light showers over the coming days from this system, but not coming with the violence of flooding. Over the next couple of days, parts of northeast Mexico may pick up an additional 5"+ of rainfall, while isolated locations in deep south Texas could collect 2-3" of much needed precipitation.

 

Most of this action is south of us, but make sure to keep the umbrellas ready, just in case a little dribble of rain falls from the sky early this week.

 

On another note, the latest computer models are gelling together something very nice towards the end of the week and into the weekend. The potential exists for our first complete cold front in a long time. This means rainfall ahead of the front, with some cooler, and less humid air behind it, just in time for the final days of summer.

 

Below is a prog from the GFS computer model illustrating a possible cold front passage by Friday evening along with a line of thunderstorms.

 

 

It not just this model, but other models that hint at this type of weather at the end of the week. Changes in the timing of this front can happen, and I will keep you in the loop. Nonetheless, behind the front, its going to feel sooooooo much better with a reduction in heat, and a major reduction in the humidity levels.

 

FYI....Summers final day is Saturday, as the Autumnal Equinox occurs at 3:44PM Sunday afternoon. 

  

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Could The Tropics Save Us?

If you could remember back in April or May when the Hurricane Season was predicted, media outlets were going bonkers because the forecast called for a very active season. For the most part, it’s been so quiet; you could hear crickets chirping all through the Atlantic Ocean Basin. As of Tuesday afternoon, only 8 storms were strong enough to be honored with names, Humberto being the latest. However, each named storm only approached Tropical Storm strength with no Hurricanes (winds 74mph sustained or stronger) yet. Humberto may become the first Hurricane of the season, but overall it’s been tranquil.

Yet, we should not give up because the middle and late stages of September is the heart of Hurricane Season and storms can form rapidly this time of year. Ocean water temperatures are the highest at this point of the year which tropical systems fall in love with.

For our concerns in the Brazos Valley, a storm with tropical origins could be what the doctor orders because we are now in an Extreme Drought. Rain is still a huge need around here, and the tropics could help.

 

A swirl of clouds and deep moisture is over the western Caribbean could make a move to the west and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico. Several reliable weather computer models hint at a strengthening body of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, and possibly head closer to us. What is certain is that some sort of tropical weather will take shape, but the track remains way up in the air, as these types of phenomenon can have a mind of their own. However, if we see some of this moisture move into the Brazos Valley, expect a deluge of rainfall which our crops will thoroughly enjoy. Timing at this point shows the potential for heavy rain between Sunday night and Tuesday.

 

Take this information with a grain of salt, but the potential is there. It might be the tropics that could help us out…..just a waiting game for now.

Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.