ICE....ICE....BABY!!!!

I could only recall Vanilla Ice had one big hit, Ice Ice Baby! I admit that I am listening to the top hit while writing this blog that could contain some ice for the Brazos Valley.

The cold front that will move in here has already passed parts of the state where the temperatures contrast between deep south Texas and the Panhandle is quite extreme this evening.

High resolution data shows that the range from high to low across the state is 19° to 90°. Yeah....this is a serious cold front with more Canadian air where that came from. What this map really shows off is not only the impressive shot of arctic air, but how quickly the temperatures will drop once the front actually passes.

What will be interesting to watch as this whole weather pattern evolves is the interaction of the cold air, and the presence of moisture that will hang on behind the front. Besides mid level rotation which aids the production of a wintry mess for north Texas, the upper levels illustrate added moisture coming off the Pacific Ocean.

Not only will this flow from the Pacific Ocean help to warm temperatures aloft, it will bring in an extra source of juice for the formation of precipitation.

Our real concern will not only pertain to the atmospheric profile, but how the temperatures at the surface respond after the cold air advances. As the atmosphere changes following the passage of the cold front, air above the surface should be warmer than freezing. In turn, precipitation that falls from the base of the clouds will melt into rain. However, if the ground temperatures are at or below freezing, then an icy scenario is in our future.

Right now, I do not see any freezing precipitating on Thursday, but there could be pockets of freezing drizzle Friday afternoon and Saturday. In terms of how this event will hash out, the Brazos Valley will avoid the worst of the storm.

A major ice storm is not going to happen here, but a light glaze of ice could form which will cause very ticky travel. Even a little bit of ice can cause HUGE problems. For areas such as Dallas, Fort Worth, Tyler, Fort Smith, Arkansas, a fairly major storm will set up with ice accumulations higher than .25" for many locations. I do not expect that here.

Milam, Robertson, and Leon counties have the best chance in our viewing area to receive a light coating of freezing rain Friday afternoon and Saturday. Bryan and College Station also have the chance for minor ice accumulations, but this is going to be a forecast to closely monitor.

Additionally, I would like to add that the soil temperatures are currently in the 50s. In order to see ice accumulate, the road and soil temperatures need to drop to freezing. Therefore, even if the air temperature hits 32° with rain falling, the initial precipitation may stay as liquid until the surfaces drop to or below freezing.

Whether ice is achieved or not, the weather will be very cold and very windy. Stay warm my friends.


"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

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