Will The Drought Come Back????

The newest Drought Monitor was released earlier today and parts of our area that were in the all clear have slipped back into the "abnormally dry" category. These counties include Burleson and Brazos. This does not mean we are back in a drought, but this is a precursor stage to possibly going back into a "moderate drought." As of the latest almanac from Easterwood Airport, 21.31" of rain accumulated since the first of January and so far, that is 9.84" above average. From these numbers, we should be in good shape right???? Well not really, you need to compare this month to the following three.

Precipitation that fell for the firth three months of the year, especially in February and March took the entire Brazos Valley out of the long term drought. However, a mere 0.57" of rain fell this month so far. Additionally, since April 4th, only .17" of rain has been recorded at Easterwood Airport. Several locations, such as in Washington and Grimes counties experienced over an inch of rain due to strong thunderstorms, but the general trend has been towards drier weather, which is what we dont need.

Long term computer guidance suggests that in the next two weeks, there will not be any significant storm to strike southeast Texas.

Recently, the overall pattern features a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains, where all the energy and storminess would ride around the high. Basically, all of the precipitation cant penetrate the high pressure cell and rotates around it to our north. Once this upper level trend flattens, they we will increase our chance for rainfall. This will likely happen by the end of the coming weekend and into next week.

Several showers are in the forecast early next week, but no large blockbuster rain events. So the question remains....are we going back into a drought? That cannot be answered for the long term picture yet, but I can tell you in the short term, it is possible if this drier than normal trend prolongs. Also, during the summer months, we will transition into an El Nino phase.

If you are not familiar with El Nino, all this means is that the waters along the equator in the Pacific Ocean warm above average for a time. Typically, in an El Nino setting, this area tends to receive average precipitation amounts. If this holds true then we will be fine, but any shift in the upper levels could put us back into another dry summer that would dig a deeper hole for this area. Time will tell, and I hope we get the necessary rain we still need. No need to panic yet, just keep your guard up.

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