We are just six short weeks away from the beginning of hurricane season. June 1st is the official start to the 2012 season which does not look too grim. In fact, when you look at the data, this season should be below the short term averages from 1995 to 2011.
The past couple of years were fairly active when it comes to the amount of storms that actually formed. Despite few land falling storms, some packed a punch, namely Irene last season. But no matter the forecast or the actual outcome of the season, "it only takes one" to make it an active year.
In 1992, there were only 4 named storms all season. However, during that season, category 5 hurricane Andrew lashed Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast.
1983 was comparable to 1992, with only 4 names storms, but category 3 hurricane Alicia barrelled into Houston/Galveston.
Always be prepared even if the forecast is for a "quiet" season.
One of the premiere meteorology universities, Colorado State recently came with their forecast. They are calling for a calmer than average season.
The averages you see on the graphic are from 1995 to 2011. The long term average from 1950 includes 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (category 3 and higher).
Reasoning's behind the forecast this season includes cooler waters in the Atlantic Ocean, plus we are going to phase into an El Nino pattern. During an El Nino pattern, the winds in the upper levels increase which are great for individual thunderstorms, but tend to shear out (rip apart) larger storms such as hurricanes. Not only do tropical cyclones need a warm environment to grow, it needs to be fairly calm as well. "Quieter" seasons tend to fall when El Nino patterns form.
Again, "it only takes one" storm to make landfall for any season to be considered active. Make sure to always be prepared.
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