Stuck In A Pattern, Will It Rain Soon?

Despite being out of the drought officially, the green grass is slowing fading to a brown color due to the lack of precipitation this month. On this final day of April, a grand total of 0.57" of rain fell this month at Easterwood Airport. This has been the driest month for this area since 0.29" of rain fell for the month of August last year. And our outlook does not look much better over the next couple of week as this steady pattern holds strong.

In the above image there are two distinct features, a high pressure cell anchored from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean, and a low sitting on the lee side (east side) of the Rockies. Due to this surface flow.....storms that form will either crop to our west, north or east, but not here.

Overall, it will continue to be breezy, warm, humid and generally dry. There will be several pop up showers from time to time, but the best energy continues to rotate around us with the best rain chances from west Texas to Oklahoma and up though Indiana.

Additionally, notice the low from the above image that is over the lee side of the Rockies. A dry line is extending from this low into west Texas and is providing enough life in the air to spark off several thunderstorms, some are severe.

You can see on this radar image that there are several light showers here, but the best lift and energy remains to our west and north. Storms in west Texas will stay put and not enter the Brazos Valley.

That's the current set up, and there is no relief from the dry weather in the near future. In order to understand why....we need to look at the upper level features.

This is a look at the jet stream level (approximately 35,000 feet above the surface). From Texas to the east coast, there is a minor ridge, or even split in the flow. A "split" flow is considered to be a blocking pattern where the weather in a given area will remain similar for an extended period of time. This includes us. Therefore no big soakers are in the offing this week. But how about next week??????

At the moment, long term computer guidance shows that the "split" flow faded, but is replaced by an upper level ridge. In other words, any type of storminess will again rotate around us and we are left in the dust. I cannot rule out an isolated shower, but as far as a widespread rain event.....it looks very unlikely.

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Will The Drought Come Back????

The newest Drought Monitor was released earlier today and parts of our area that were in the all clear have slipped back into the "abnormally dry" category. These counties include Burleson and Brazos. This does not mean we are back in a drought, but this is a precursor stage to possibly going back into a "moderate drought." As of the latest almanac from Easterwood Airport, 21.31" of rain accumulated since the first of January and so far, that is 9.84" above average. From these numbers, we should be in good shape right???? Well not really, you need to compare this month to the following three.

Precipitation that fell for the firth three months of the year, especially in February and March took the entire Brazos Valley out of the long term drought. However, a mere 0.57" of rain fell this month so far. Additionally, since April 4th, only .17" of rain has been recorded at Easterwood Airport. Several locations, such as in Washington and Grimes counties experienced over an inch of rain due to strong thunderstorms, but the general trend has been towards drier weather, which is what we dont need.

Long term computer guidance suggests that in the next two weeks, there will not be any significant storm to strike southeast Texas.

Recently, the overall pattern features a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains, where all the energy and storminess would ride around the high. Basically, all of the precipitation cant penetrate the high pressure cell and rotates around it to our north. Once this upper level trend flattens, they we will increase our chance for rainfall. This will likely happen by the end of the coming weekend and into next week.

Several showers are in the forecast early next week, but no large blockbuster rain events. So the question remains....are we going back into a drought? That cannot be answered for the long term picture yet, but I can tell you in the short term, it is possible if this drier than normal trend prolongs. Also, during the summer months, we will transition into an El Nino phase.

If you are not familiar with El Nino, all this means is that the waters along the equator in the Pacific Ocean warm above average for a time. Typically, in an El Nino setting, this area tends to receive average precipitation amounts. If this holds true then we will be fine, but any shift in the upper levels could put us back into another dry summer that would dig a deeper hole for this area. Time will tell, and I hope we get the necessary rain we still need. No need to panic yet, just keep your guard up.

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2012 Hurricane Season Is Approaching Fast

We are just six short weeks away from the beginning of hurricane season. June 1st is the official start to the 2012 season which does not look too grim. In fact, when you look at the data, this season should be below the short term averages from 1995 to 2011.

The past couple of years were fairly active when it comes to the amount of storms that actually formed. Despite few land falling storms, some packed a punch, namely Irene last season. But no matter the forecast or the actual outcome of the season, "it only takes one" to make it an active year.

In 1992, there were only 4 named storms all season. However, during that season, category 5 hurricane Andrew lashed Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast.

1983 was comparable to 1992, with only 4 names storms, but category 3 hurricane Alicia barrelled into Houston/Galveston.

Always be prepared even if the forecast is for a "quiet" season.

One of the premiere meteorology universities, Colorado State recently came with their forecast. They are calling for a calmer than average season.

The averages you see on the graphic are from 1995 to 2011. The long term average from 1950 includes 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (category 3 and higher).

Reasoning's behind the forecast this season includes cooler waters in the Atlantic Ocean, plus we are going to phase into an El Nino pattern. During an El Nino pattern, the winds in the upper levels increase which are great for individual thunderstorms, but tend to shear out (rip apart) larger storms such as hurricanes. Not only do tropical cyclones need a warm environment to grow, it needs to be fairly calm as well. "Quieter" seasons tend to fall when El Nino patterns form.

Again, "it only takes one" storm to make landfall for any season to be considered active. Make sure to always be prepared.

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April Snow Showers Bring May....?

While all is quiet here in the Brazos Valley, the Northeast, especially Pennsylvania and New York continue to experience a rare late April snow storm. As of this afternoon, snow continues to fall at a heavy clip along the Allegheny Mountains in Pennsylvania. Laurel Summit, located in western Pennsylvania picked up over 18 inches of snow, and the crazy thing is....it continues to snow there. I would not be surprised if their final total ran around 22 inches. Look at the Doppler Radar image from this afternoon, the snow is not going anywhere until late tonight.....

This was all part of a dynamic storm that climbed up this east coast this past weekend. Several low pressure centers were associated with this storm, but it was the upper level low that is sitting over Pennsylvania which drilled in the cold air allowing precipitation fall as snow. Furthermore, the upper level jet stream bowed down into the southeast further enhancing the chilly air that spread along the Appalachian Mountains and adjacent coastline.

When meteorologists forecast, not only do they look at what is happening at the surface, they look at the upper level features as well. Typically, what happens in the upper levels translates down to the surface. This is one of the reason why we follow the jet stream so closely because its the largest barrier between warm and cold air. There are other factors involved with this upper level feature, but separations in air masses are the biggest component.

As cold as it is in the east, the center of the country, including the Brazos Valley continuously sees a bright sky overhead as a strong ridge of high pressure remains in charge.

Under this ridge, which happens to be part of an "Omega Blocking Pattern" will slowly move east with time. If you are not familiar with an Omega Block, basically this is an upper level pattern where the strongest winds way above the ground have the shape of the Greek letter omega. This is a slow moving weather patter where the calm weather is in the center of this block, whereas the western and eastern sides are cloudy, cold, and damp.

Expect our weather to be warm with barely any bumps in the roadway. Any storms that from in the Rockies this week will ride up and around the High Pressure center, steering the rain away from us. By the way, we could use more rain because since April 3rd, Easterwood Airport recorded only 0.17" of rain. Finally, due to this type of atmospheric set up, heat will begin to build under this ridge. Therefore, the days will get hotter and more humid throughout the week. When I say heat, I am talking about triple digit heat in West Texas where some locations could top off around 105° to 107°. Now that's hot.......

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Lyrids Meteor Shower This Weekend

It one of the most fascinating phenomenon that occurs miles and miles above the Earth's surface. A piece of rock that is flying though space comes into contact with the atmosphere and burns up like a streaking fireball that lights up the night sky. Meteor showers are common year round, and whether you see one meteor or thousands in a single night, this phenomenon is always eye catching.

This weekend we will be given the privilege to experience the Lyrids Meteor Shower. This is not the biggest show on Earth, when you compare it to the Perseids Meteor Shower in August, but the Lyrids can still but on a great performance.

Around this time of the year, the Earth passes though debris that was left behind a comet that orbits the sun once every 415 years; Thatchers. Thatchers is way away from us right now, but its debris remains. As the Earth runs into this floating rock, the atmosphere burns its up and the Lyrids Meteor Shower is in full swing.

On the peak night, which will be late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, you can look up and see approximately 10-20 meteors in an hour. However, there are occasions when this meteor shower has had peak rates up to 100 meteors in an hour in the past.

Best advice, get away from city lights and go to an area where it is dark so you can easily see these meteors burn up and streak across the sky. From around 11pm this Saturday night to 4am Sunday morning will be the best times to look up.

Enjoy the scene this weekend, and if you have any pictures, be sure to send them this way.

Oh.....one more note. The moon will not affect the viewing this year because it is a new moon at the moment.

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Slight Risk of Severe Weather, But No Biggy

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma slapped on a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow for the southern third of our viewing area. From southern Brazos, Grimes, Washington County and points south there is a possibility of experiencing thunderstorms with strong straight line winds, frequent lightning and large hail Friday afternoon.

From what I can see, the threat for tornadoes will be minimal. There will be very weak shear (or change in wind speed and direction with height), therefore I will not be too concerned with twisters tomorrow.

A cold front that is hanging to our northwest at the moment will swing in tomorrow, but we do not have to worry about any rain until Friday afternoon. What you will notice tonight will be the busy wind from the southeast, increased humidity levels and clouds filling the sky overnight.

As opposed to the past few gorgeous days, clouds will win out and the sun will not be seen too often tomorrow. Expect several rain showers to crop up by 1pm tomorrow. Between 2pm and 6pm, the front will be close enough to kick start stronger thunderstorms which includes pockets of downpours.

The only question that remains with the passage of this front is exact timing when it comes though the Brazos Valley, and when the initial storms flare up. If this front comes in sooner, our chance for strong storms will be minimal. However, if this front delays by an hour or two, then the entire viewing area will experience heavy thunderstorms. At the moment, the strongest activity should be closer to the Gulf Coast.

Overall rain accumulations will be generally between 0.20" and 0.50" with a few isolated areas up to 1.00".

Nonetheless, once the front moves by, the wind will kick up from the northwest around 20 to 30 mph for a time tomorrow with cooler air shuttling in.

To recap, storms will be here tomorrow afternoon. Best chance for severe weather will be to our south and east. Some storms can produce strong winds, hail and very heavy rain. As far as tornadoes, there will be a minimal risk. By the weekend, the clouds and precipitation are out of here.

To best protect yourself, your property and family, make sure to stay informed with the weather. You can keep up to date with KAGS: on air, online at www.facebook.com/KAGSweather, or on twitter @KAGSweather, or you can pick up a NOAA Weather Radio at participating HEB's in the Brazos Valley.

Tornado Outbreak Wrap Up

Picture From: The National Weather Service in Wichita, KS

Saturday was a day that many in Western Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa will remember for quite a long time. These areas get severe weather often this time of the year, but what happened this weekend was quite extreme. Within a 24 hour window, there were approximately 135 reports of tornadoes.

Sometimes when you hear that there were 135 reports of tornadoes, this does not mean there where 135 individual tornadoes. There can be multiple reports for the same tornado, from different locations. Once the National Weather Service (NWS) surveys all the damage, they will determine exactly how many tornadoes actually touched down, as well as their rating.

Nonetheless, this past weekend was extreme. From pictures and reports to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), many of the tornadoes were long lived and quite strong. Several reports that came into the SPC were for tornadoes that were between 1/4 and 1/2 mile wide. These "wedge" tornadoes cause the most damage due to their wide path and intense winds. Fortunately, most of these twisters were located in fields where they could do little damage. However, there were some unfortunate reports in Oklahoma of lost property and lose of life in Woodward.

The following picture was taken from nyt.com of the damage in Woodward Oklahoma.

Its so sad to see pictures like this following damaging storms that ripped though towns in the Plains Saturday. People who have lived in these areas for all of their lives lost everything: their home, pictures, property and memories. On the other hand, in this time of crisis, its great to see people helping people. I was watching The Weather Channel on Sunday, and they showed many people from surrounding neighborhoods helping to pick up debris and comfort those who lost their homes. Additionally, the Red Cross came in for support.

From a meteorological stand point, this was one of the best forecasted outbreaks in a long time. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma who forecast severe weather outlooks as well as issue Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches, pinpointed this outbreak a week in advanced. The following image displays their forecast 7 days in advanced, all the way up to the day of the outbreak this past Saturday.

Notice from "Day 7" up until "Day 1", how the SPC highlighted the area of concern without much changes. Severe weather is one of the hardest aspects of weather to forecast, but in this situation I applaud the efforts from the SPC, to get the word out on this situation and warn the people from Oklahoma to Iowa. As the day grew closer and computer modeling aligned in agreement about this outbreak, the SPC issued a HIGH RISK of severe weather. A HIGH RISK is rarely used, only in situations that a particularly dangerous. This was one of those times where a HIGH RISK was needed.

From the forecast above, note where the actual events took place on the next image.

These are reports of severe weather that took place on Saturday. When you match this up to the forecast from the SPC, this was right on target. Much surveying needs to be done in order to rate these tornadoes, but that will come in due time.

A message you need to understand from this event is that severe weather is dangerous and make sure to heed any watch or warning that is issued for your area.

To best protect yourself, your property and family, make sure to stay informed with the weather. You can keep up to date with KAGS: on air, online at www.facebook.com/KAGSweather, or on twitter @KAGSweather, or you can pick up a NOAA Weather Radio at participating HEB's in the Brazos Valley.

Significant Severe Weather Outbreak This Weekend

Right off the bat, if you are heading to Chili Fest in Snook Saturday, you will not experience any large storms. The wind will be quite busy, it will be very warm and there could be an isolated shower. The severe weather threat for the Brazos Valley will be from Sunday evening to Monday morning. However, the rest of the Plains will experience quite and event Saturday night into Sunday morning.

From this evening though Monday, the Plains, including us in the Brazos Valley will experience hazardous weather as a significant weather event will begin to unfold.

Lets set the stage for you. This evening, severe weather from a storm sitting over the eastern side of the Rockies will continue to produce powerful severe thunderstorms and even a few isolated tornadoes in Oklahoma. The big show and most intense energy that will help grow larger thunderstorms for the weekend sits over the western Rockies.

In the above image, the circled area is where there is strong energy in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere that needs to be closely monitored this weekend. Once this piece of energy crosses the Rockies Saturday afternoon and enters the Plains, there will be sufficient dynamics to produce widespread significant severe weather.

Because there will be enough moisture in play, heat, energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere, a cold front that will move into the Plains that will help lift the air, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma is expecting a HIGH RISK of severe weather from Oklahoma to Nebraska. Unless there is enough dynamics to produce significant damage the SPC rarely uses their HIGH RISK category.

Areas tomorrow encompassed under the moderate and high risk categories in the image above will experience high straight line winds up to 80mph, very large hail (up to baseball or larger), and large long tracking tornadoes. Timing of this event Saturday will mainly be in the evening and overnight hours. I would not be surprised if tornadoes of EF-3 or stronger are generated from the storms tomorrow in this area of the country.

One of the biggest reasons why this area will see multiple tornadoes is because the jet stream will be on top of this region which will rotate the wind and help to prolong the life of strong thunderstorms.

That's Saturday......Sunday, this severe weather risk will shift to east and southeast Texas.

At the moment, we have a slight risk of severe weather Sunday evening and into Monday morning. Our main threats are for strong winds and hail. As far as tornadoes there might be an isolated one, but we don't have the same dynamics like Oklahoma and Kansas will have Saturday. Nonetheless, keep your guard up because this storm is quite energetic.

Look at the following image which shows the jet stream level on Sunday with the wind speeds around 35,000 feet.

Where the blue color is and especially the darker blue color, illustrates the strongest winds within the jet stream. Notice the this area is well to our north. Therefore, winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere do not have as good of a chance to produce long lived super cell thunderstorms here and our likely hood for tornadic development is much lower because this field of strong winds is north of us. However, there can still be a quick weak tornado here on Sunday evening.

Lets time this event out.....

Around 4-5PM on Sunday, a cold front will approach the Brazos Valley with strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of it. You can expect strong winds, hail and even the possibility for a weak tornado.

Note: It is still too early to call the exact timing, and the forecast can change from now to Sunday, and I will keep you updated on the situation.

Now, here is where the interesting part of this cold front comes into play. By Sunday night and into Monday morning, the cold front will approach the coast and slow down.....

Some computer information shows this front stalling Monday and early Tuesday. Despite the above model illustrating that we will be in the clear by noon Monday, other guidance suggests that the rain may stick around. Therefore, questions remain with the timing and speed of the front. However, the severe weather threat will diminish by Monday morning whether this front stalls or not.

If this front stalls we could be in for a ton of rain and the flooding risk will sky rocket. The following image is the current thinking on rainfall accumulation though Monday.

1" to 2" amounts of rain will be common, but if the front stalls, 3" to as much as 5" or rain will be in our future. That's the way it looks right now....check out this blog and the facebook page for the latest updates.

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Omega Block Again, Changes By The Weekend

We have talked about the omega block before on this blog, and yet again, we are in this pattern again. Before I post the upper level orientation of the jet stream....take a look at the national temperature map and how a pattern like this can generate such a stark difference in temperatures from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains.

Looks more like a wintry map with the blue colors surrounding the Great Lakes, while here in Texas, its nice and toasty with temperatures in the 80s. Furthermore, due to this cold pool of air sliding down the eastern trough of the omega block, FREEZE WARNINGS have been posted for areas between South Dakota to North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Overnight, there is the potential that those areas will have temperatures below 32 degrees killing any vegetation.

We lucked out and we are in the center of this, equating to lovely weather for the next several days.

Notice how the jet stream is very wavy. We call this a meridional pattern in the meteorological world. When you see on an upper level map something that looks like this, then large scale weather systems will have trouble moving west to east swiftly as opposed to a jet stream that is straight (zonal). The bottom line is that we will continue to see similar weather right into the weekend.

However, when we look out in the Pacific Ocean, changes are not too far away.

The trough that you can see above will make a slow move onto the west coast and eventually into the Rockies before eyeing us here in the Lone Star State. Due to strong upper level winds over the Pacific, this will allow the trough to dig into the U.S. and help to break down the high and allow the weather to finally make a move east.

By the weekend, we will begin to feel more affects from this. The next image is a model output illustrating the jet digging into the four corners.

As the entire trough crosses the Rockies and into the Plains Sunday, we will heighten rain chances with the potential for severe weather late Sunday and Monday.

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Incredible Heat In March

March will go down as one of the warmest since records have been taken all across the United States. Out of 50 states, 25 of them have recorded the warmest March on record. Texas was not one of them, but we were up there with placing 5th for the month. The following image will give you a good grasp of the records that took place. Most of which occurred in the Plains and around the Great Lakes.

There is a strong contrast from the heat east of the Rockies, to the much cooler western states. The largest contributing factor was a lack of snowfall across the entire U.S. and central Canada. Snow acts as a refrigerator keeping the air near the ground chilled even if the upper levels try to warm. For this reason, cold fronts were not as vigorous because there weren't any deep pockets of chilled air. Plus, LaNina, kept the jet stream well to our north.

A jet stream is a stream of very fast winds about 35,000 feet above the ground. Despite its distance away from the surface, this phenomenon paves a highway for storms, but more importantly divides arctic air from tropical air. When the air was cold enough to support snow across the U.S. storms did not form at the right time.

On the other hand, even though the lower 48 was struggling to find its identity this winter, Anchorage, Alaska managed to surpass its all time seasonal snowfall record. The previous record was 132.6" in the  1954-1955 winter season. This season, so far  133.6" of snow has accumulated.

What you need to know is that Spring is a transition season with warm and cold spells. This time the warm air really won out, but cold spells can still happen in April.

A March For The History Books

As the song goes, "rain, rain, go away, come back some other day...." For us in the Brazos Valley, we wanted to rain, and well we got it good. March was a wonderful month. We were able to pull out of the drought and collect over 8 inches of rainfall.

Officially at Easterwood Airport, 8.66" if rain was collected over the course of the 31 days of March. This set a new record for most rainfall in the third month of the year. Additionally, for the year, 20.74" has been recorded. Therefore, from January to March, this has been the second wettest start to a year in recorded history. The wettest start was 20.79" in 1991.

Furthermore, the time period between the 1st of February and the 31st of March was the wettest February-March combination in history with 17.95" of rainfall. On top off all that, March 2012, was the 6th warmest on record. The average temperature for the month was 67.1 degrees.

More rain is in the offing tomorrow with the potential for severe weather.

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