The Weekend Severe Weather Rumble

Following the latest cold front, weather across the entire Brazos Valley has been picture perfect. Sure, it was a chilly start, but this afternoon was nothing short of perfection. A burly dome of high pressure that is responsible for this outstanding Election Day weather will slowly begin to drift eastward. Therefore, each afternoon for the remainder of the week will slowly get warmer and warmer. Plus, by Thursday, you will notice the wind will pick up ahead of our next big weather maker.

At the moment, all of the computer models are spitting out a cold front which should sweep across the entire Plains and eventually move to the east coast late this weekend. Before diving into additional details, the timing is not yet 100% set, but for now, it looks like the Brazos Valley can expect a frontal passage from late Sunday night through Monday morning. Once the timing is easier to glean, I will make sure to update you on the latest.

Presently, built up energy for the next storm is bottled up in the Gulf of Alaska.

 

This mass of swirling clouds will shift into the Pacific Northwest and start a journey though the entire lower 48.

 

Several ingredients will be key in the full evolution. First, strong vorticity (mid level atmospheric spin), and second, very quick jet stream winds.

 

By the second half of the weekend a vigorous trough with embedded vorticity maxima (areas of intense cyclonic spin), catch up to the surface low and generate intensification. Additionally, this will help lift the air further, producing even taller thunderstorms which live longer.

 

Take strong vorticity, and add an energetic jet stream in the upper levels, and you have a recipe for widespread severe weather.

 

Note: At the moment, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday though Monday will be along a line from Kansas to Wisconsin.

 

 

Notice how the fastest winds in the darker blue line up well with the mid level forcing. Not only does this allow storms to become more dynamic, but allows for additional wind shear (changing wind speed and direction with height), in turn can set up an environment for tornadoes.

 

Due to the potential of severe weather expected, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already highlighted a region to watch.

 

 

 

Overall, the following image will illustrate the models forecast at the surface for Sunday.

 

 

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across the Plains. Again, it looks like the timing for the Brazos Vally will be between Sunday night and Monday morning for this cold front to move by. Ahead of the front, a few storms will greet us, with the most incense severe weather well to our north. Behind this system, windier, and much colder.

 

When you compare cold front. The front that is forecasted to move in by the end of the weekend is much heartier than the front the swiped by yesterday.

 

I will keep you updated with any changes in the forecast.





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Communicating Sandy And Potential Historic Storm A Tough Task

I am sure that most of you who are reading this blog are very familiar with Hurricane Sandy, as well as a potential blockbuster storm for the east coast. Many names come to mind when I was reading articles online and glancing at Twitter feeds. "Frankenstorm", "Megastorm", "Freakstorm", even notes about a Hurricane/Nor'easter hybrid, and finally comparisons to the "Perfect Storm" of 1991.

No matter the name, no matter the exact physics of the storm, whether its a warm core tropical cyclone or a cold core mid-latitude cyclone, forecasts are calling for a major impact event from Florida to Maine.

Questions still remain to be answered exactly where this storm will go. Models have begun to agree and gel together indicating that Sandy will move parallel to the east coast and eventually hook left (west), creating massive destruction. That said, additional data needs to be compiled for more confidence. Good news, is that more data will be coming. The National Weather Service will launch weather balloons 4 times each day at local offices, rather than twice, to get a better idea of the atmosphere's upper level structure. Once added balloon data is meshed into the models, forecast confidence will go way up. At the moment, we will not know 100% about the movement of the storm into the east coast until Saturday morning.

Anyway, back to the larger picture....how to communicate this type of potential disaster?

1) Its good to be aware, but make sure to tell the truth in what you know and what you don't.

What we do know is that there is a hurricane moving though the Bahamas and has the potential to move into the east coast early next week. Key word being POTENTIAL. Meteorologists use this term, because we base our forecast on computer simulations as guidance. The reason why you might hear television stations "hype" this event is due to the fact that many models agree that something big might happen.

Note: There are still a couple of outliers that try to take this storm well away from the coast, but a vast majority show an east coast landfall.

On the other side of the spectrum, when you look at history....this type of event is so rare that there is no comparison. Its OK to tell your audience how unique this situation is and why an official forecast is tough to nail down.

Tell them what you know and don't know....be honest.

2) Naming a storm a good thing?

Yes, and no.

Names stick to people's head and are used as an ice breaker around the water cooler. Additionally, if there is an underlying meaning, then the outcome will determine if the storm was worthy of the given name. Names can always make or break the public's trust in scientists, especially meteorologists.

Whether Sandy is used, or "Frankenstorm", communication though impacts is a better use of time, and mean more. Basically, rather than using a name, we need to tell the public that something unique could take shape, with potential high impact threats.

When it comes to a storm, the general public typically does not care about the science, just how it will affect their livelihood.

3) When should the "hype" come though fruition?

Since all the data has not been fully integrated, broad forecasts are best. Scenarios work in this situation. From there, the public should be aware of all the options due to uncertainty. But label each option with a level of confidence.

Once the data if fully ingested and a true pin point forecast can be made (which in my eyes seems like early Saturday morning), stronger, more dominant language should be used if danger is imminent.

From there, we need to answer a laundry list of questions for potential impacts in specific locations.

Where will it rain? When? How Hard? Where is the highest potential for flooding? How high will the waves be along the coast? Coastal erosion? How windy will it be?

Can this storm on its current path blow my house down? What about my boat on the dock? Will my family be OK?

Overall, this type of storm should be handled with care. Its good to see that people are aware of this meteorological event, but still too early to call exact shots. Furthermore, this is a perfect time to teach the public about how difficult forecasting can be though the science of meteorology.

Mixing teaching and forecasting can be the best way to communicate such a rare event.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Is A Hard Left Turn Possible For Hurricane Sandy?

Sandy continues to steal the headlines as this massive storm matured into a Hurricane. Winds have been clocked near 100mph at times as Sandy spins in ferocious waves and rainfall all across Jamaica. Swaths of rain have battered parts of Cuba, the Dominican Republic as well as the Bahamas. Also, Sandy has picked up additional forward speed towards the north and eastern Cuba is next in line to experience lashing effect.

The short term forecast remains the same, but in the long term (meaning early next week), computer models are coming more into agreement that Sandy may take a hard left hook and move into the Mid-Atlantic or New England coastline, which is giving many meteorologists headaches.

Before I dive into the history of tropical systems and Sandy's future, it is still way too early to call an exact forecast on this system. However, its always good to be aware of this possible situation and have a plan in place.

As far as the future forecast of this potential beast, its always good to take a look at the past. Right now, there are several models that indicate this storm to take a dynamic turn to the east. When you look at the history of tropical systems, or even typical mid-latitude cyclones, its quite difficult to make such a turn. Now, its very likely for any system as they move from the tropics to the north and make a hard turn right (east) due to strong westerly winds. Therefore, a 100% PERFECT set up is needed in order for the worst case scenario to occur.

The following images illustrate a couple hurricanes that I found to make an improbable turn around the Mid-Atlantic and New England:

1) Hurricane Connie 1955

Here, Connie took a couple of turns. One, to parallel the coast, and two, a left turn inland. But, this is not a hard left turn like some models say Sandy can do.

2) Hurricane Agnes 1972

 

Following a dip into the Atlantic Ocean, Agnes took a turn back inland and created trouble for many, especially along Long Island.

 

Of all the tropical system that I took a glance at, I could not find one that had similar origins as Sandy. Climatology suggests that a topical system which originate in the Caribbean and move north to the Atlantic, tend to get caught up in the westerlies and brush out to sea.

 

On the other hand, one of the more destructive storms to ever hit the northeast was known as, "The Long Island Express," or the New England Hurricane of 1938.

 

This storm did not wobble uncontrollably, but rather was picked up by a trough which accelerated forward speed. For a time, The Long Island Express moved with speeds over 50mph. Therefore, it had no time to be pushed out to sea. With a combination of forward speed and strong winds, a gust over 180mph was recorded at Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts....WOW!

I am not saying that Sandy will do this, but history gives us an idea, that it is extremely difficult for a storm to back into the northeast.

Despite all the records that we have, history was meant to be rewritten....right? Well, history happens all the time as meteorology is still a young science, with huge growth potential. Forecasting and modeling have come a long way, but still have a long way to go.

Nonetheless, there are a couple of features that could make or break a major crisis for the Northeast.

If you read the last blog, we noted a blocking pattern in Greenland, and how the orientation of a trough needs to set up perfectly for a hard left turn.

As of this afternoon, models are beginning to hint that a negatively tilted trough could happen and bring Sandy off the Atlantic and draw the storm ashore. Following deep analysis of many computer models, they all point to one thing that will help draw Sandy inland.

A shortwave at the 500mb (18,000ft) level, coming in front Canada could swipe the south side of the storm and knock it back east. The following images are 500mb plots with the short wave, or area of concern is before gyrating this storm back east.

1) 12z GFS

 

2) 12z EURO

 



3) 12z NOGAPS

4) 12z Canadian (CMC)

Each of these model outputs note a shortwave that could trigger a directional turn. Now the question lies in how strong this short wave will be and when it will move through. If it moves in early, a direct hit will occur, but if it shows up late to the party, the food will be gone and it will miss the US.

Furthermore, there is one more aspect that I want to look at. Its how the jet stream in the GFS model is plotted.

Circled is the eastern side of the jet stream that has much stronger winds than the western side. If what I learned in school is correct, due to this feature and wind profile, the trough that will make or break the storm should lift, rather than deepen. In other words, if the trough lifts, the the storm will not happen. According to this feature, the storm will not happen.

Again, its still too early to call how this will shape up, but all I want to say is that based on history, its going to be extremely difficult for this storm to pull out all of its ammo and directly hit the US. The forecast can change and as additional data comes in over the next couple of days, computer information will begin to gel together. Overall, yes it is still possible for Sandy to pound the northeast.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Historical Storm? Flop? Where is Sandy Going?

 

Despite a reprieve from the Tropical Season, it is not done quite yet. Officially, the Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th every year. By October and November, activity typically winds down rather quickly. However, storms can still spawn and pack a punch, such as Tropical Storm Sandy that you see in the above image.

At the moment, Sandy is spinning about the southern Caribbean and poised to make a move over the island of Jamaica. From there, western Cuba will experience a bout of heavy rainfall as well as wind. Plus, the Bahamas and south Florida are on the radar for Sandy. But the larger question that every meteorologist is trying to find out is......where will the storm go from there?

You might have heard online or on television about Sandy becoming a storm of the century type scenario for the east coast. Some are saying that Sandy will drift out to sea barreling down Bermuda. In reality....ITS TOO EARLY. Way too early to call for an exact position more than 4 days out. Our short term forecast is solid, but early next week has a multitude of question marks.

Lets run down the two solutions that most are talking about right now....one, Sandy moving away from the U.S.....and two, a direct hit into Long Island or the New England Coastline.

1) Sandy Sets Sail

Long term climatology suggests that most storms with tropical origins this time of the year can parallel the east coast, but tend to move out into the deep waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

Several computer models illustrate this exact movement, such as the GFS shown below:

 

In this case, several coastal communities from Florida towards North Carolina could get bands of heavy rain, but everyone along the east coast will experience unusually high surf and dangerous rip currents. Additionally, a trough in the upper atmosphere that will move across the lower 48 this week and into the weekend should kick Sandy far away enough to avoid a direct hit. On the other hand, depending on the orientation of the trough, that could help draw Sandy closer inland....which leads to our second solution.

 

2) Sandy Moves Up The Coast and SLAMS The Mid-Atlantic and New England

 

Aside from the vast majority of computer guidance, there are a couple of outliers that raise eye brows. Yes, there are a couple of models that show a worst case scenario for parts of the east coast, a crippling storm barreling towards many highly populated areas crushing communities with wicked wind, flooding and storm surge.

 

The following are a couple of images of the European Computer Model (EURO) and the NAVY (NOGAPS) clearing indicating landfall Tuesday next week.

 

 

Note: Before I go into why these models are showing this type of weather, know that every models has a different algorithm (or code) to predict future weather. That's the biggest reason why there are so many different forecast out there, especially in the long term. Additionally, meteorologist typically feel confident about long term forecasting when a majority of computer simulations agree with one another.

Anyway, the trough we talked about at the end of possibility #1 will help draw Sandy inland in the European and NAVY models, as opposed to kicking the storm out.

 

 

What you are looking at here is the 500mb plot (heights and spin around 18,000 feet above the ground). Notice how the trough over the Great Lakes bows from northwest to southeast. We call this a negative tilt. Most times when we talk about this type of tilt, it helps cyclones strengthen. In this model simulation, the trough is tilted in a fashion that the storm will move on top of this feature and will be guided inland. Plus, there is a strong blocking high over Greenland that could help push this storm back into the US. If this actually pans out, then the Mid-Atlantic and New England will have a huge problem on their hands.

 

Again, this is too early to call, but something to monitor. Personally, I feel Sandy will skim parts of the southeast and then move out to sea, but the forecast can change.

 

Once the National Hurricane Center accumulates additional data, we will have a better handle on the storm and its realistic path.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.