The Weekend Severe Weather Rumble

Following the latest cold front, weather across the entire Brazos Valley has been picture perfect. Sure, it was a chilly start, but this afternoon was nothing short of perfection. A burly dome of high pressure that is responsible for this outstanding Election Day weather will slowly begin to drift eastward. Therefore, each afternoon for the remainder of the week will slowly get warmer and warmer. Plus, by Thursday, you will notice the wind will pick up ahead of our next big weather maker.

At the moment, all of the computer models are spitting out a cold front which should sweep across the entire Plains and eventually move to the east coast late this weekend. Before diving into additional details, the timing is not yet 100% set, but for now, it looks like the Brazos Valley can expect a frontal passage from late Sunday night through Monday morning. Once the timing is easier to glean, I will make sure to update you on the latest.

Presently, built up energy for the next storm is bottled up in the Gulf of Alaska.

 

This mass of swirling clouds will shift into the Pacific Northwest and start a journey though the entire lower 48.

 

Several ingredients will be key in the full evolution. First, strong vorticity (mid level atmospheric spin), and second, very quick jet stream winds.

 

By the second half of the weekend a vigorous trough with embedded vorticity maxima (areas of intense cyclonic spin), catch up to the surface low and generate intensification. Additionally, this will help lift the air further, producing even taller thunderstorms which live longer.

 

Take strong vorticity, and add an energetic jet stream in the upper levels, and you have a recipe for widespread severe weather.

 

Note: At the moment, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday though Monday will be along a line from Kansas to Wisconsin.

 

 

Notice how the fastest winds in the darker blue line up well with the mid level forcing. Not only does this allow storms to become more dynamic, but allows for additional wind shear (changing wind speed and direction with height), in turn can set up an environment for tornadoes.

 

Due to the potential of severe weather expected, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already highlighted a region to watch.

 

 

 

Overall, the following image will illustrate the models forecast at the surface for Sunday.

 

 

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across the Plains. Again, it looks like the timing for the Brazos Vally will be between Sunday night and Monday morning for this cold front to move by. Ahead of the front, a few storms will greet us, with the most incense severe weather well to our north. Behind this system, windier, and much colder.

 

When you compare cold front. The front that is forecasted to move in by the end of the weekend is much heartier than the front the swiped by yesterday.

 

I will keep you updated with any changes in the forecast.





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