Historical Storm? Flop? Where is Sandy Going?

 

Despite a reprieve from the Tropical Season, it is not done quite yet. Officially, the Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th every year. By October and November, activity typically winds down rather quickly. However, storms can still spawn and pack a punch, such as Tropical Storm Sandy that you see in the above image.

At the moment, Sandy is spinning about the southern Caribbean and poised to make a move over the island of Jamaica. From there, western Cuba will experience a bout of heavy rainfall as well as wind. Plus, the Bahamas and south Florida are on the radar for Sandy. But the larger question that every meteorologist is trying to find out is......where will the storm go from there?

You might have heard online or on television about Sandy becoming a storm of the century type scenario for the east coast. Some are saying that Sandy will drift out to sea barreling down Bermuda. In reality....ITS TOO EARLY. Way too early to call for an exact position more than 4 days out. Our short term forecast is solid, but early next week has a multitude of question marks.

Lets run down the two solutions that most are talking about right now....one, Sandy moving away from the U.S.....and two, a direct hit into Long Island or the New England Coastline.

1) Sandy Sets Sail

Long term climatology suggests that most storms with tropical origins this time of the year can parallel the east coast, but tend to move out into the deep waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

Several computer models illustrate this exact movement, such as the GFS shown below:

 

In this case, several coastal communities from Florida towards North Carolina could get bands of heavy rain, but everyone along the east coast will experience unusually high surf and dangerous rip currents. Additionally, a trough in the upper atmosphere that will move across the lower 48 this week and into the weekend should kick Sandy far away enough to avoid a direct hit. On the other hand, depending on the orientation of the trough, that could help draw Sandy closer inland....which leads to our second solution.

 

2) Sandy Moves Up The Coast and SLAMS The Mid-Atlantic and New England

 

Aside from the vast majority of computer guidance, there are a couple of outliers that raise eye brows. Yes, there are a couple of models that show a worst case scenario for parts of the east coast, a crippling storm barreling towards many highly populated areas crushing communities with wicked wind, flooding and storm surge.

 

The following are a couple of images of the European Computer Model (EURO) and the NAVY (NOGAPS) clearing indicating landfall Tuesday next week.

 

 

Note: Before I go into why these models are showing this type of weather, know that every models has a different algorithm (or code) to predict future weather. That's the biggest reason why there are so many different forecast out there, especially in the long term. Additionally, meteorologist typically feel confident about long term forecasting when a majority of computer simulations agree with one another.

Anyway, the trough we talked about at the end of possibility #1 will help draw Sandy inland in the European and NAVY models, as opposed to kicking the storm out.

 

 

What you are looking at here is the 500mb plot (heights and spin around 18,000 feet above the ground). Notice how the trough over the Great Lakes bows from northwest to southeast. We call this a negative tilt. Most times when we talk about this type of tilt, it helps cyclones strengthen. In this model simulation, the trough is tilted in a fashion that the storm will move on top of this feature and will be guided inland. Plus, there is a strong blocking high over Greenland that could help push this storm back into the US. If this actually pans out, then the Mid-Atlantic and New England will have a huge problem on their hands.

 

Again, this is too early to call, but something to monitor. Personally, I feel Sandy will skim parts of the southeast and then move out to sea, but the forecast can change.

 

Once the National Hurricane Center accumulates additional data, we will have a better handle on the storm and its realistic path.

 

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