Weekend Storms On The Horizon

What a beautiful week so far here in the Brazos Valley. Cool mornings turn into pleasant, sunny afternoons. Also, temperatures have been great. Highs have topped off in the 60s to near 70°. However, changes will begin slowly. Warm air will stick around, but the wind will pick up, also, you will notice more cloud cover Thursday.

This is all ahead of a storm that is developing over southern California at this time.

This storm is tame, but once it crosses the Rockies, not only will this be trouble for weekend travel in Texas, but a large portion of the Plains and the Mid-West. By Friday and Saturday, the center of low pressure will begin to push into New Mexico and eventually Texas. Additionally, several atmospheric ingredients will aid in more rapid intensification.

At the surface, a rich pull of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico will help to produce a broad swath of precipitation from Texas all the way to Chicago. Furthermore, a strong Jet Stream aloft will enhance lifting, allowing for heavy pockets of precipitation. Also, the jet stream will increase the risk for strong and potentially severe thunderstorms from central Texas to Tennessee. On the back side of this storm is much colder air and any precipitation that falls will be in the form of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

Here in the Brazos Valley, any precipitation will be in the liquid form as temperatures should be in the middle 70s. As far as timing, expect several light showers Friday evening along with a gusty south wind blowing in excess of 20mph at times. Saturday morning will be cloudy with an isolated shower. By Saturday afternoon and especially in the evening, thunderstorms will move in from the west and wash us out. Its still yet to be determined if these storms will be severe here, but the threat is possible. Nonetheless, expect a periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning Saturday night.

While we experience the tail end of the storms, areas to our north could pick up a copious amount of precipitation.

The storm moves out Sunday morning, while the wind continues to howl, this time from the northwest. In turn, will make it much colder.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

ICE....ICE....BABY!!!!

I could only recall Vanilla Ice had one big hit, Ice Ice Baby! I admit that I am listening to the top hit while writing this blog that could contain some ice for the Brazos Valley.

The cold front that will move in here has already passed parts of the state where the temperatures contrast between deep south Texas and the Panhandle is quite extreme this evening.

High resolution data shows that the range from high to low across the state is 19° to 90°. Yeah....this is a serious cold front with more Canadian air where that came from. What this map really shows off is not only the impressive shot of arctic air, but how quickly the temperatures will drop once the front actually passes.

What will be interesting to watch as this whole weather pattern evolves is the interaction of the cold air, and the presence of moisture that will hang on behind the front. Besides mid level rotation which aids the production of a wintry mess for north Texas, the upper levels illustrate added moisture coming off the Pacific Ocean.

Not only will this flow from the Pacific Ocean help to warm temperatures aloft, it will bring in an extra source of juice for the formation of precipitation.

Our real concern will not only pertain to the atmospheric profile, but how the temperatures at the surface respond after the cold air advances. As the atmosphere changes following the passage of the cold front, air above the surface should be warmer than freezing. In turn, precipitation that falls from the base of the clouds will melt into rain. However, if the ground temperatures are at or below freezing, then an icy scenario is in our future.

Right now, I do not see any freezing precipitating on Thursday, but there could be pockets of freezing drizzle Friday afternoon and Saturday. In terms of how this event will hash out, the Brazos Valley will avoid the worst of the storm.

A major ice storm is not going to happen here, but a light glaze of ice could form which will cause very ticky travel. Even a little bit of ice can cause HUGE problems. For areas such as Dallas, Fort Worth, Tyler, Fort Smith, Arkansas, a fairly major storm will set up with ice accumulations higher than .25" for many locations. I do not expect that here.

Milam, Robertson, and Leon counties have the best chance in our viewing area to receive a light coating of freezing rain Friday afternoon and Saturday. Bryan and College Station also have the chance for minor ice accumulations, but this is going to be a forecast to closely monitor.

Additionally, I would like to add that the soil temperatures are currently in the 50s. In order to see ice accumulate, the road and soil temperatures need to drop to freezing. Therefore, even if the air temperature hits 32° with rain falling, the initial precipitation may stay as liquid until the surfaces drop to or below freezing.

Whether ice is achieved or not, the weather will be very cold and very windy. Stay warm my friends.


"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Arctic Blast: Round 2

What goes up, must come down! Following a beautiful weekend, the temperatures began to sky rocket into the 70s and 80s across most of Texas to kick start this new work week.

For the second day in December, the average temperature reported at Easterwood Airport in College Station is 65°. Therefore, on this Cyber Monday, if you love warm air, today was a huge bargain for this time of year. In fact, this warm air will hang around through the middle of the week, before a major push of Canadian air heads our way once again. Just like early last week, we will have a repeat performance.

In order to experience a huge shift in our weather, we first need a fresh batch of hard core cold air in Canada and Alaska.



With a core of sub-zero temperatures, this air is poised to make a move into the United States and eventually in our direction. The air will moderate during it journey down, but the whats left will make us grab our winter coats and turn up the heat!

Ahead of the impending cold blast, the National Weather Service has already posted widespread Winter Storm Watches and Winter Storm Warnings for many locations in the northern Rockies and Plains.

Mostly the higher elevations in the Rockies will accumulate large mounds of snow with some locations receiving nearly two feet! Its white gold for all of the ski resorts, not really gold when it comes to traveling.

Nonetheless, the cold air should arrive in the Brazos Valley sometime early Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this push of really cold stuff, clouds will increase and periods of rain will overspread the region. Once the cold front hits and moves by Thursday afternoon, temperatures will drop like a rock as a gusty north wind will help shuttle in our new air mass.

From Friday and into the weekend, expect highs to only reach the 40s with overnight lows dipping into the 30s along side a gusty wind, making it feel even colder. Additionally, clouds and some precipitation will hang back over the cold air, which in turn could cause icy conditions for parts of north Texas around Dallas and Fort Worth.

I will make sure to keep you posted should any changes arise.

"Take a look up once in a while; you never know what you’ll miss."

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.