Wednesday, August 28, 2013

When Will This Heat Streak End?

When will this heat streak end? This is a question that even our Forefathers asked at the end of the Summer season in desperation for cooler, crisper air. If you lived in the Northeast, cooler weather typically arrives in September, but here in Texas, we all know 90s and even 100° weather can linger for a while. In fact, the latest observation of 100° weather in College Station was recorded at 103° on September 28, 2005. According to climatology, we still have a ways to go, but hope is just over the horizon.

At the moment, we are sitting in a pattern where wet weather steers away from the Brazos Valley, a south wind persists, and temperatures will remain in the 90s to near 100°. We are in a holding pattern due to forces in the upper levels. Periods of strengthening high pressure ridges keep the weather in check, but long term guidance suggests a break in this overall framework.

Through the first 10 days of September, expect the sizzle, but a potential front could near the Brazos Valley anywhere from the 11th - 15th of the September. Below is a prog from the GFS model on September 13th, illustrating a cold front along with thunderstorms entering Texas.



This forecast is very far out at this time, but it does give hope to the fact that changes might come in the future. I will keep you in the loop on this far out glimpse of cooler weather, and rain too.

Make sure to look up, because you never know what you'll miss.

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