Light Icy Event Tuesday Morning, Maybe Wednesday Too

Seems like a distant memory, but it was only a couple of days ago where temperatures soared into the 70s. However, as this winter season continues to roll on, the main plot stays the same...."It's Cold Out There!" Now, temperatures struggle to move out of the 40s, while overnight lows bottom out near freezing, not good for the farming community. With such cold air in place and disturbed weather coming our way, a possible icy scenario may crop up tomorrow morning. Albeit a light event, but any wintry precipitation can cause problems on the roads.

Saturday night, a cold front moved by and delivered a new batch of cold air from the north. The same front continues to move slowly east, but with high pressure to our north, the cold air is not budging. What you can notice from the illustration on the right is that high pressure flows clockwise and with that motion, a chilly north flow will be persistent as long as the high-pressure system stays to our north and north west. Additionally, whats important about this image is that this demonstrates what is happening at the surface, and not the upper levels. In order for our icy situation to come to fruition, the surface and the upper levels will have to be set up correctly.

This happens to be the case, as the upper level flow shows two main distinct characters. First, there is a flow coming out of the Pacific Ocean in the upper levels, drawing in moisture and warmer air aloft. Two, the flow is quite energetic with disturbances riding along too. Its these disturbances in the upper levels that help to lift the air and generate clouds that can precipitate. When this type of mixture occurs  its hard for snow to reach the ground. Hence, the possibility for freezing rain and ice pellets (also known as sleet).

Warmer air aloft carried by air from the Pacific Ocean will be warm enough, when precipitation falls to the ground, it will be as liquid as opposed to snow or ice crystals. This is where the surface temperatures come into play. Since the air will be much colder closer to the ground, the liquid precipitation that falls to the ground, could freeze during decent as sleet, or freeze on the ground as freezing rain. Therefore, temperatures will be critical tomorrow morning as many locations in our viewing area will be right around 32°, if not just below. Even if the temperature is 34° at your house, sleet can still fall from the sky and create slick spots. However, if the temperature is 32° or below and it looks like its raining, its really freezing rain that will cause huge travel problems.

Based on the latest computer guidance, areas along highway 21 and points north have the best chance to see icy roads tomorrow, where areas south could stay all rain.

Areas in pink represent locations that could have ice tomorrow, where places in green indicate a plain rain.

Overall: This will be a light event and not a big storm. However, if there are any ice accumulation (even if it seems minor) roads will be hazardous.

Timing: Best timing for sleet or freezing rain will be between 3am and 7am Tuesday, before temperatures warm above 32°.

First To Freeze: Bridges and overpasses, as well as secondary roads.

Following tomorrow mornings event, I'm keeping my eye closely on Wednesday morning as well.


For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/plushnickweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.