Close, But No Cigar

A spell of warm air continues to keep temperatures well above average for a majority of Texas here in late January. Most areas have topped off in the 70s, with several locations, such as Hearne and Waco reaching the low 80s. These are not record setting temperatures, but are quite close. High pressure centered to our east helps to turn the wind from the south, rising the mercury and adding moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Higher dew point values have contributed to morning fog as well as a sticky feeling outside. However, there is cold air in sight. The question is, will any of that ooze in here?

Note the regional temperature plot to the right. Most of Texas remains very warm for this time of year. Along the Red River and points north, there is a stark difference. Take a look at Dallas and Oklahoma City. Dallas sits at 78° this afternoon, while a three hour drive north to Oklahoma City is drastically colder by nearly 40°. Between the cold and warm air masses, a slow moving cold front that is nearly stationary is meandering south towards the Brazos Valley. This is not a front that will blast forward, but one that will move as far south as it can until it runs out of steam.If this front does not come though the Brazos Valley, warm air will win out, and the cold air will not touch us.

According to Exact Trac, the front will remain to our north this evening and inch its way farther south overnight. During this time, a south wind will persist and the moisture train off the Gulf will not stop. Therefore, by morning, an overcast will develop and areas of fog will create tricky travel with visibilities in a few spots below a 1/2 mile at times. By the late morning and into the afternoon, the air will sufficiently warm up and the fog will not be a problem. Additionally, breaks in the clouds will allow the sun to come out and temperatures go way up again.

By the afternoon tomorrow, the front should move south, but stall just north of the Brazos Valley. Since we remain south of the front, the warm air will not go away. Additionally, along the front there will be a few isolated showers that form from the afternoon heating, but not many will experience wet weather. From there, the front will lift back north and clouds will mix in with sunshine though the weekend along with several light showers from time to time. By Tuesday a stronger cold front will move by with the possibility of severe weather for parts of northeast Texas and Arkansas. Some wet weather is in the offing for us on Tuesday and I will closely monitor the latest computer models that roll in.

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