Several Storms Sunday Evening

From the latest computer guidance, I feel more confident on the timing of our next cold front as well as the character of thunderstorm development. In the mean time, winds will continue to whip at a clip near, if not exceeding 30mph at times through Sunday.

Its not just windy here, its all over the southern Plains. The winds were gusting near 40mph this afternoon in Dallas and Oklahoma City. That would blow your boots off. Additionally, direction of the wind is important ahead of the next cold front. A general south to south east flow is helping to unlock additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. More moisture means that storms that develop on Sunday have ample fuel to work with.

Currently, our weekend weather warrior is slowly cycling around the Rockies before making a move towards the Plains.

This mass of clouds and isolated precipitation does not look too threatening, but when a strong jet stream along with mid-level energy catches up to this, the storm as a whole will strengthen rapidly. The main body of low pressure will move from the Rockies towards Minnesota Sunday. Plus, an elongated cold front will stretch from the parent low, all the way down to south Texas.

As the cold front approaches the Brazos Valley, it will interact will all of the moisture in play, plus moderate to strong wind shear (change of wind speed and direction with height). This will initiate thunderstorm development Sunday evening, but the strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop just to our north.

The following image details mid-level energy that helps to prolong the life of a thunderstorm, and kick up the strength a notch.

The area circled denotes the best forcing, and highest likelihood of severe weather. Therefore, northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma will have the best atmospheric set up for storms to develop large hail and strong damaging winds.

Due to this potential, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, OK, has highlighted this area for a Slight Risk of severe weather on Sunday.

 

This does not mean that the Brazos Valley is 100% out of the woods.

 

 

Weather To Expect: From 2pm and later, expect a line of thunderstorms to develop. Some may produce torrential downpours along with vivid lightning. Yes, there is a small chance that one of two of these storms could be severe.

 

Timing: 2pm to 8pm Sunday.

 

Severe Risk: Low

 

I just want to note again that we will have a few storms, but the strongest will be to our north and east. If the forecast changes, I will inform you. Plus, if any severe weather strikes, I will keep you up to date with the latest. Nonetheless, enjoy your weekend, but keep an eye to the sky Sunday evening.

 

Finally, behind this front, it will turn sharply colder Monday.

 

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