Tropics Will Help Us Out

Another Monday, another day in the sun and heat. However, that will all come to and end by the end of the week as we finally have a shot at some rainfall. Yet, the moisture source will originate from a unique location.

On a personal note, I have loved the recent trend, but most of us remain in drought conditions. Therefore, I have no problem bringing in rainfall.

Before we talk about the good stuff, lets chat quickly about the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. So far, the first 2/3 of the season has been very active. Despite recent tranquility, two more months remains on for this season. Long term models indicate that at least the next 15 days do not show much tropical activity. Therefore, if the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season ended today, it would be fairly average compared to the numbers between 1995 and 2011.

 

 

Interesting to note: each Tropical Depression that form this year (14) strengthened into a Tropical Storm (named storm). Additionally, the only Major Hurricane (category 3+) was Michael which swirled in the North Atlantic well away from the U.S.

 

 

For our bout of rainfall later this week, we need to turn our heads towards the Pacific Ocean. At the moment, Major Hurricane Miriam will weaken, and make a move towards the Baja.

 

 

The brunt of the storm will not be here, but residual moisture from Miriam, plus a cold front that will move in from the north will combine to produce rain.

 

 

Above is the 12z run of the GFS this afternoon. The printout illustrates widespread showers though out the Lone Star State by Friday. Additionally, moisture from Miriam will move slowly that could prolong rainfall until the middle of the weekend.

 

The forecast can change and I will make sure to keep you up to date on KAGS-HD. In the meantime, do the rain dance to help this area out.

 

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