Interesting Forecast Coming Up.....

For the most part, this summer has been tranquil, hot, humid, and fairly similar to most summers. Now that we are going to turn the corner with Autumn creeping closer, colder air in Canada begins to brew. Therefore, cold fronts will swing down to the lower 48 more often, and yes, even us here in Texas will feel the effects of changing weather. The next cold front that comes are way could provide some much needed rainfall.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the sky shimmers a beautiful royal blue, while heat remains seasonal, but the humidity is striking back. Nonetheless, the weather is a snoozer for now, but to our north west is our next game changer.

 

 

Just like the front that plowed through last week, this one will sweep in and turn down the heat a notch. Yet, the interesting factor is that a secondary body of low pressure could develop in the upper levels. In other words, rainfall could last for a couple of days.

 

 

Typical monsoonal flow spreads rain for locations in the 4 corner states to Nevada this afternoon. But, this front is on the move, and the air behind this could produce the first snowfall in the Colorado Rockies later this week. Yup.....Autumn is getting closer, and I am sure the ski resorts in the Rockies are ecstatic.

 

Despite a few light showers here and along the Texas coast tomorrow, the weather really begins to show signs of changing on Thursday.

 

 

 

The GFS weather model notes the front slicing through the upper Mid-West and bowing down into Kansas Thursday morning. Additional humidity comes into the mix, and along with some instability, several showers and thunderstorms will be isolated around the region during the afternoon.

 

By Friday, as the front moves closer, rain becomes more numerous.

 

 

The image above illustrates the front's position by Friday morning. At the moment, it seems like the front will move through the Brazos Valley sometime Friday afternoon. Then the wind will begin to shift from the north, importing cooler air. However, this does not completely mean the rain will shut down. A feature in the mid-levels could prolong the rain into late Saturday or early on Sunday.

 





 

Upper level charts, as in the model above shows a weakness in the overall flow. It seems here that a secondary body of low pressure formed in the upper levels, and broke off from the main stream. This is quite typical, and is called a "cut-off low." Here it does not seem like the system is 100% cut off, but nonetheless a feature that needs to be monitored. If this were to hash out, then clouds will stick around and the rain as well. Since a "cut-off" is separate from the main flow, these type of feature tend to move sluggishly.

 

Due to this possibility, the model output a band of heavy rain over east Texas Saturday afternoon.

 

 

Right now, its something to watch, and the forecast can change from each model run. I will make sure to keep you updated. Overall, the take away here is that there could be a good chance of rain here from late Thursday to late Saturday.

 

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