Where Will Ernesto Go?

The hot name the past few days has been Ernesto, the newest Tropical Storm in the Atlantic basin. Plus, it looks like there could be another storm about to form off the coast of Africa.

Ernesto is in the middle of the image above, with another area of concentrated storms off of Florida, and in orange, a third tropical disturbance fresh from Africa. The area circled in orange could easily become Tropical Storm Florence over the next 24-48 hours.

Besides additional activity around the tropics, Ernesto steals the headlines. Early this morning Ernesto slammed into St. Lucia with extremely heavy rainfall and wind gusts clocked to 65mph. Good news for the Lesser Antilles, Ernesto has been a fairly quick moving storm. However, over time and into next week, this entire complex will start to slow down forward progression.

Taking a closer look at the storm, Ernesto still seems to be disorganized, but Hurricane Hunters from the National hurricane Center have discovered a well defined center of circulation. Around the center by the weekend, more additional storms will circulate around the lowest pressure and help the strengthening process. At the moment, this storm will move out of the Lesser Antilles and take an extended vacation in the Caribbean.

Currently, quick intensification is not in the forecast due to dry air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. In addition, strong wind shear will keep Ernesto from becoming a hurricane in the near future, but that all will change by early next week.

By Monday, Ernesto should be positioned in the central Caribbean, where atmospheric conditions will be more favorable for strengthening. Furthermore, there should be enough intensification that an upgrade from a Tropical Storm to a Hurricane will take place.

Not only will the atmosphere help the strengthening process, but take a look at the water temperatures across the Caribbean. Low to mid 80s! When strong wind shear shuts down, Ernesto will stand in line at the buffet and feast on all the energy ahead.

Now, lets get to the meat of the matter and chat about the ever important track of this potential beast.

Computer information favors a westward track, but recently have trended towards more of a southern route into Mexico, as opposed to skipping landmasses.

However, the forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows westward track with a movement north of the trend from the computer information.

Note by Monday, the forecasted strength indicates Ernesto as a minimal hurricane, and by Wednesday, the center of the track moving the center of the storm over Cozumel.

Note: Do not take this current track for what it is, because there are many days between now and Wednesday, and there is so much data yet to be received. The track can shift, Ernesto could weaken, or strengthen significantly. Too many questions yet to be answered. This is the best guess at this time, and I will keep you updated if there is a large shift in the forecast.

Over time, we will have a better feeling on the forecast of this storm and will be able to take away question marks and change them to a more confident forecast.

Yet, there is still a good chance that Ernesto will take a dip into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly steer towards Texas.

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