Minor Changes Mean Better Chance For Rain

For the past few weeks, the weather has honestly been a snoozer for a meteorologist. Basically on a day to day basis, its been hot, dry and quite humid at times. I guess that is what we get when a strong ridge barley budges. However, the overall pattern is beginning to change a bit. Enough so that we will be able to up our rain chances by late in the week.

Besides the obvious heat in the Desert Southwest, a core of hot air settled across the heart of the country for quite a while. It was so hot at times that Oklahoma City hit 112° or higher 3 days in a row last week. The peak of the heat in OKC was 113° which tied their all time record high from the Dust Bowl days in 1936. Now, the center of high pressure that delivered record break heat is now on the move. It will be a slow move, but it will put the Brazos Valley in a more favorable position to see at least some rainfall.

By the end of the work week, high pressure will center over the 4-corners. When the high was on top of us all last week, any type of energy that could give us rain was blocked, but now the shield is placed in a different location.

With the high slowly moving to our west, tiny disturbances will be able to ride around the clockwise flow around the high. Additionally, by Thursday and Friday, a front will begin the drop down from the north.

If this front makes it this far south, a few light showers will be around Thursday, with the best shot at isolated drenching thunderstorms Friday. Question is, will the front fizzle out over us, or fade after it passes the Brazos Valley? If the front fizzles out over us, the air remains humid. On the other hand, if the front swipes by before fading, we will take a break from oppressive humidity just for one day, Saturday, before the muggies return.

Something to watch and as the latest computer information comes in, I will keep you up to date.

Finally, Ernesto is now a Hurricane with max sustained winds of 80mph.

The track will take this beast just north of Belize and into the Yucatan. From there, Ernesto will move into the Gulf again before hitting central Mexico will tropical rains. No threat to the Texas coastline.

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