Big Weekend With Some Big Heat

As we close out the Dog Days of Summer, temperatures rose again over 100° for many of us. At least there were a few storms out there to cool some locations off. However, we begin Meteorological Autumn (September) the same way we leave Meteorological Summer (August), hot and HUMID. Good news, computer guidance suggests that Fall might be closer than we think.

Note: Tonight will be a Blue Moon. We call this one the Blue Moon because it is the second full moon of the month. The next time this phenomenon happens is in 2015.

First, lets get to the important story of the day......the Kickoff to High School Football! Yes, we have been waiting for this since the winter. Despite the heat outside, maybe watching a little football will give us that Autumn feeling. Nonetheless, several storms have popped up and will dance around by kickoff this evening.

Not every game will see rainfall, but if a storm move into your area, watch out for the possibility of lightning. By 8-9PM each storm should collapse and yield to a dry weekend.

High pressure centered to our east will be the main meteorological focal point for our weather through the end of next week.

 

 

With the jet stream well to the north and high pressure anchored over the central Gulf Coast, the sizzle is on. Don't forget, wind flows clockwise around high pressure. Therefore, the wind will be coming from the southeast (off the moist waters of the Gulf) and keeping the humidity up. Additionally, several sea breeze showers will form, hugging the coastline this weekend and should not propagate too far inland. 

 

Unfortunately, due to this overall flow, clouds, wind and storms could dampen your beach plans this Labor Day Weekend.

 

 

Each morning along the coast will be dry with increasing clouds and several heavy storms by the afternoon, so keep on the lookout when the sky turns dark.

 

Now to some potentially pleasing news. The image above illustrating the jet stream well to the north shows the heat for this weekend. Yet, there is a change to the orientation of this jet as cooler air locked in refrigerator of northern Canada will begin to slowly seep southward. Question is....how far south with this refreshing air penetrate the lower 48? Well.....lets take a look at the GFS model.

 

 

What you are seeing here is a plot of the 300mb (or jet stream level) prog for late next Friday. There are two distinct flows. One coming from northwest Canada that bows into the northern Plains and Great Lakes. The second coming off the Pacific Ocean and gliding across the Rockies to the central Plains.

 

 From this long range forecast, I can glean that the northern 1/3 of the contiguous 48 states will be greeted with a taste of Autumn. At the surface, there will be a cold front that drags across most of the central states and off to the east coast. If the northern stream coming out of northern Canada can push farther south, we will take a break from the heat and humidity. Signs are pointing to a pattern change, but its all a waiting game. Eventually, more cold fronts will swing far enough south, even if we miss this shot of heat relief.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Hold On....Isaac Could Impact Texas, Plus, The Aggie Game Has Been Postponed

As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Issac remains a Category 1 Hurricane, but max sustained winds have increased to 80mph with gusts touching 100mph. Movement remains slow towards the northwest, but I believe a change in the track is coming soon. Therefore, Texas will have a higher chance of being impacted, plus the Aggies opening game against Louisiana Tech this Thursday has been postponed to October 13th.

Rain, tornadoes, and storm surge have already plagued areas from the Alabama Gulf Coast to southeast Louisiana. More wave action to come with our in house computers indicating waves over 30 feet high just off the southeast Louisiana coastline....yikes! Additionally, rain from this storm has been spreading all across the southeast, not just along the Gulf Coast.

                                    The picture above is from Navarre Beach Pier in Florida

 

Note the band of intense precipitation along I-95 in Florida. That has been sitting over the same location for a couple of days now. Nearly 10 inches of rain has fell near West Palm Beach, with several isolated location near 15 inches. Furthermore, notice how the east side of the storm on radar has a majority of the precipitation. Typically, the northwest quadrant of a tropical cyclone have the most punch. Nonetheless, Isaac remains a slow moving storm any many bands of tropical downpours will swirl in over Mississippi and Louisiana over the next 48 hours.

 



 Question is.....where will Isaac head next?

 

 

The above image is the official forecast path from the National Hurricane Center. Glancing at the time stamp on the left side of the cone, clearly this will be a prolonged event. You can also glean that the center of the storm will move up into central Louisiana and eventually towards Arkansas.

 

Personally, I am not 100% convinced that this will be the exact motion of Isaac. From the latest computer information, I think that the center of Isaac will shift farther west, closer to the Brazos Valley.

 

Looking at the upper level features, high pressure situated over the Rockies/Plains will take over as the steering current for this storm and help it move farther west than what the Hurricane Center is predicting.

 

 

 

High pressure is known to block large scale storms. But a slight weakness in this ridge will help to pick up Isaac and move the whole storm closer to Texas. If this all happens, we will see a good shot of rain Thursday, and increased winds. Impact in the Brazos Valley will be minimal compared to the destruction happening to our east. All we should see is just a heavy rain at times Thursday and gusty winds, nothing severe.

 

Now, lets take a look at the progression with the RPM model which does a fairly good job.

 

 

By 5:00PM Wednesday, yes....Isaac is still over central Louisiana. I was not kidding that this was a slow moving storm. From here, the ridge to our northwest will continue to draw this storm farther west with a motion to the north.

 

 

 

If this model is correct, Isaac will be centered in northeast Texas, with Shreveport on the east side. Again, if this is correct, we will see rain here, but more severe weather to our east. Due to this the game vs. LA Tech has been postponed to October 13th. Reason is, the east side of the storm has the most intense winds, heaviest rain, plus the threat for tornadoes.

 

With all of this in play, the NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of the upper Texas Coastline.

 

 

A Tropical Storm Watch means that there is the potential for the highlighted area in yellow to experience sustained winds greater than 39mph. Storm surge should not be a problem over the upper Texas Coast, but rain could cause some inland flooding.

 

Overall, this is a situation that will be monitored closely and I will keep you up to date with the latest.

 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.











Isaac's Impacts And What It Means For The US

Isaac has been a storm that's been talked about for over a week now. From its infancy while crossing the Atlantic, to maturity with more strengthening to go in the Gulf of Mexico, not only will Isaac have a considerable impact where this storm makes landfall, but everyone in the US will feel some backlash.

Though the center of Isaac moved well west of Florida, its outer rain bands produced tremendous flooding along the I-95 corridor, plus spawning several small tornadoes. Additionally, the Republican National Convention was pushed back a day. Now the focus shifts on the central Gulf Coast where Isaac will be more powerful.

As of the newest advisory, this is still a Tropical Storm, but may not be for long.

 

Once sustained winds reach 74mph, Isaac will be upgraded to a Hurricane. Central pressure continues to drop, now at 981mb and forward motion continues towards the northwest at 12mph. The biggest problem is that the forward speed will considerably slow down over the next 24-36 hours, which means that strengthening will continue, additional water will move towards the coast...adding concern for more storm surge, and finally chances for major inland flooding increases.

 

 

Hurricane Hunters are not only indicating that central pressure is dropping (lower pressure = a stronger storm), but an eye, 20 miles wide is beginning to appear. All indicating that a hurricane is in the works, and one that could continue to gain strength.

 

At the moment, wave action near the center of the storm is not extreme, but higher seas are likely to build.

 

 

Our in house projections indicate that waves are maxing out around 20 feet or so which will contribute to storm surge. This does not mean that storm surge will be 20 feet, but give an indication that the waters are quite violent.

Furthermore, water temperatures ahead of the center of circulation are warm.

Not only will this help to strengthen Issac, but most computer information show that wind shear will be low over this area. Whats interesting about wind shear (directional and speed changes with height) is that this benefits small scale storms, such as a super cells that produce tornadoes, but on the large scale, not so much. Strong wind shear can rip apart a tropical system, but with weak wind shear in this situation, Isaac should stay in form.

With all of this in consideration, this Tropical Storm, soon Hurricane will continue to move in a northwest fashion and become more violent.

Note the timeline on the right side of the projected track. This storm is going to SLOW down big time. Additionally, current thinking will have Isaac as a category 2 storm with winds gusting over 100mph. With this track, the center of the storm should be around northern Louisiana even on Thursday for the Aggies opening football game against Louisiana Tech. If you are headed towards Shreveport, keep an eye on the forecast. Yes, there is a possibility that the game could be postponed.

You might ask, why would a football game be cancelled for rain? In this situation, there could be massive flooding all across Louisiana, Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Plus, depending on the track of the storm, there will be a risk for tornadoes as well.

To add on Isaac's slow motion, not only will heavy rain persist in many location, high winds will be a concern with damage, but prolonged storm surge will erode beaches and even coastal homes.

That's not it......gas prices will likely hike up for everyone across the US.

Each dot on the image above is an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico. Isaac will affect many of these oil rigs and some companies, such as BP, has suspended 85% of its oil production to get their employees into a safer situation. Good move to keep people safe. This means that the price of gas will probably go up. But this is not rare, oil rigs have shut down to to tropical activity before.

Overall, this is a serious situation for the central Gulf Coast, and it will be monitored closely.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

So Close, But Yet So Far

During the summer, it's very tough for a cold front to move across central Texas. Main reason is due to a lack of cold air to our north, and two, if cold air tries to move in it all gets spread out before it can reach us here. When the Autumn months and the Winter rolls around, there will be gobs of cold air in Canada that will periodically swing though.

During the summer, it would be nice to have a front sweep away the humidity, but so far, not this summer. We have had several close calls, and another it at our door steps.

There it is, a cold front that is continuing to slow is southern progress. Several showers broke out this afternoon in Robertson and Leon counties ahead of this front, and that's all we should see from this boundary.

Despite the heat around Dallas and Ft. Worth, notice the drier push of air on the other side of this front.

 

Dew points in the 40s, this time of the year is a nice surprise. Yet, we remain on the southern side, where the air flows from the south, rather than the north.

By tomorrow morning, our latest front will be as close as reaching the northern extent of Leon County be for retreating back north.

Therefore, the Brazos Valley remains on the hot and muggy side. Additionally, along the front there will be several disturbances producing soaking rains around the Red River. We are too far south to be affected by that batch of rainfall.

Do not give up hope, because computer guidance suggests a stronger push of cold air over the northern half of the US that could send an additional front our way. Therefore, we should see some rainfall closer to the weekend and maybe a break from the humidity. 

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.



Minor Changes Mean Better Chance For Rain

For the past few weeks, the weather has honestly been a snoozer for a meteorologist. Basically on a day to day basis, its been hot, dry and quite humid at times. I guess that is what we get when a strong ridge barley budges. However, the overall pattern is beginning to change a bit. Enough so that we will be able to up our rain chances by late in the week.

Besides the obvious heat in the Desert Southwest, a core of hot air settled across the heart of the country for quite a while. It was so hot at times that Oklahoma City hit 112° or higher 3 days in a row last week. The peak of the heat in OKC was 113° which tied their all time record high from the Dust Bowl days in 1936. Now, the center of high pressure that delivered record break heat is now on the move. It will be a slow move, but it will put the Brazos Valley in a more favorable position to see at least some rainfall.

By the end of the work week, high pressure will center over the 4-corners. When the high was on top of us all last week, any type of energy that could give us rain was blocked, but now the shield is placed in a different location.

With the high slowly moving to our west, tiny disturbances will be able to ride around the clockwise flow around the high. Additionally, by Thursday and Friday, a front will begin the drop down from the north.

If this front makes it this far south, a few light showers will be around Thursday, with the best shot at isolated drenching thunderstorms Friday. Question is, will the front fizzle out over us, or fade after it passes the Brazos Valley? If the front fizzles out over us, the air remains humid. On the other hand, if the front swipes by before fading, we will take a break from oppressive humidity just for one day, Saturday, before the muggies return.

Something to watch and as the latest computer information comes in, I will keep you up to date.

Finally, Ernesto is now a Hurricane with max sustained winds of 80mph.

The track will take this beast just north of Belize and into the Yucatan. From there, Ernesto will move into the Gulf again before hitting central Mexico will tropical rains. No threat to the Texas coastline.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Where Will Ernesto Go?

The hot name the past few days has been Ernesto, the newest Tropical Storm in the Atlantic basin. Plus, it looks like there could be another storm about to form off the coast of Africa.

Ernesto is in the middle of the image above, with another area of concentrated storms off of Florida, and in orange, a third tropical disturbance fresh from Africa. The area circled in orange could easily become Tropical Storm Florence over the next 24-48 hours.

Besides additional activity around the tropics, Ernesto steals the headlines. Early this morning Ernesto slammed into St. Lucia with extremely heavy rainfall and wind gusts clocked to 65mph. Good news for the Lesser Antilles, Ernesto has been a fairly quick moving storm. However, over time and into next week, this entire complex will start to slow down forward progression.

Taking a closer look at the storm, Ernesto still seems to be disorganized, but Hurricane Hunters from the National hurricane Center have discovered a well defined center of circulation. Around the center by the weekend, more additional storms will circulate around the lowest pressure and help the strengthening process. At the moment, this storm will move out of the Lesser Antilles and take an extended vacation in the Caribbean.

Currently, quick intensification is not in the forecast due to dry air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. In addition, strong wind shear will keep Ernesto from becoming a hurricane in the near future, but that all will change by early next week.

By Monday, Ernesto should be positioned in the central Caribbean, where atmospheric conditions will be more favorable for strengthening. Furthermore, there should be enough intensification that an upgrade from a Tropical Storm to a Hurricane will take place.

Not only will the atmosphere help the strengthening process, but take a look at the water temperatures across the Caribbean. Low to mid 80s! When strong wind shear shuts down, Ernesto will stand in line at the buffet and feast on all the energy ahead.

Now, lets get to the meat of the matter and chat about the ever important track of this potential beast.

Computer information favors a westward track, but recently have trended towards more of a southern route into Mexico, as opposed to skipping landmasses.

However, the forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows westward track with a movement north of the trend from the computer information.

Note by Monday, the forecasted strength indicates Ernesto as a minimal hurricane, and by Wednesday, the center of the track moving the center of the storm over Cozumel.

Note: Do not take this current track for what it is, because there are many days between now and Wednesday, and there is so much data yet to be received. The track can shift, Ernesto could weaken, or strengthen significantly. Too many questions yet to be answered. This is the best guess at this time, and I will keep you updated if there is a large shift in the forecast.

Over time, we will have a better feeling on the forecast of this storm and will be able to take away question marks and change them to a more confident forecast.

Yet, there is still a good chance that Ernesto will take a dip into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly steer towards Texas.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. Furthermore, you can download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.