UPDATED: Tropical Trouble For The Brazos Valley?

THERE IS AN UPDATE TO THE BLOG AT THE BOTTOM.....

At the moment there is a disturbance that is in the east central portion of the Gulf of Mexico, where the center of circulation appears to be just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of clouds, storms and heavy rain is showing very slow movement. However, over the weekend, this cluster of tropical rains will get its act together. Once this "storm" has a more defined circulation and strengthens, we will be able to better forecast its movement and path of impact. Any area along the Gulf Coast is fair game, but let me show you the possibilities and where the computer guidance is trending.

The following image is a host of computer models that illustrates where the center of circulation will move over the next 5 days.

Due to this wacky look, we call this a "spaghetti plot." We just hold off the marinara sauce. Bottom line here is that there are a handful of weather models that indicate that this disturbance will move towards the central Gulf, but from there, models are all over the place. Some models take this "storm" towards Florida, and some towards Texas. This will be a waiting game until strengthening takes place over the weekend.

What I can tell you is that an area of high pressure that will sit over the heart of the U.S. this weekend and early next week will have a huge role in where this "storm" goes.

Blazing heat will spread across the Lone Star State though the Dakotas, but its the circulation around this high that could steer the "storm" in the Gulf. Wind flows clockwise around high pressure and therefore, could catch the disturbance and bring it towards the western Gulf next week.

The following are images of solid forecast computer models and where they are trending.

NOGAPS

UKMET

ECMWF

NAM

Note how these models indicate a low pressure center, most likely a tropical storm or hurricane and move it towards the Texas Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Many models are trending this way, but anything can change from now until then. This is just to give you a heads up that there is a possibility of tropical moisture moving towards our area.

Nonetheless, locations in Florida will recieve drenching rains....the question is....will we see this wall of water? Time will tell, but I will keep you updated.

UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has now classified this storm as Tropical Storm Debby. As of the latest forecast, the NHC has the Texas Coastline as a possible target for Debby in the middle of next week, but still anything can change.

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