Extreme Heat Is Gone...For Now...Any Rain?

The heat we had here across the Brazos Valley on Tuesday was a dooooozy. Easterwood Airport in College Station officially hit 106° which broke the old record from 2009 of 105°. Additionally, the humidity has been sky high, making the heat index or "feels like" temperature over 110° at times.

Now we are going to switch from an extreme heat pattern to one that is quite warm, but much more humid.

High pressure will be centered over the northeast quadrent of the Gulf over the coming days. Note the circulation around high pressure, which is clockwise. Therefore, the wind will generally come from the southeast, or off the warm/moist Gulf waters. Due to the extra moisture in the air, we will see additional cloud cover, and the temperatures will fall back into the mid 90s. Thea reason why temperatures will not soar over 100° is due to extra water vapor (humidity) in the air.

When the atmosphere has additional water in the air, the sun will not be able to heat up the Earth's surface as efficiently, because it takes additional energy to heat up due to the moisture. On the flip side, if the atmosphere was dry, it would take less energy to heat up the air and temperatures would rise quickly.

The overall point is that the afternoon highs will not be extreme, but with the abundance of humidity, it will be warm and muggy at night.

By the weekend, a small area of upper level energy will swing by the western Gulf and spawn widspread showers and storms that will move inland due to the overall clockwise flow around high pressure.

Most of the rainfall will hug the coasline, but some will come inland.

We could use a good soaking around here and I will update you if we have a better chance of that happening this weekend. So far, looks like a mainly dry weekend with the best shot of seeing any showers here on Sunday.

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Tropical Storm Debby Not A Concern For Texas

As the newest information comes in from the National Hurricane Center, the computer models are able to pick up on this storm a whole lot better. Right now, Debby will sit and spin in its current location with a slight movement towards the north Florida coast over the next 4 to 5 days. Due to very weak winds and absent steering currents in the upper atmosphere, Debby will not only stay basically stationary, but dump 20-30 inches of rain in isolated locations in Florida. Flooding will be the primary concern, but Debby will also produce several weak tornadoes as well from Orlando to Jacksonville.

Here is the latest forecast over the next five days from the National Hurricane Center:

Due to this path, Debby will not produce any rain here in Texas, she will crank up the wind a bit over the new work week, that's about it. It would have been nice to receive the rain from Debby, but this storm is a miss for now. Remember, the hurricane season is young.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.  

Tropical Storm Debby Update

I hope you are all enjoying the weekend. Despite the heat across our beautiful state, the humidity has been held in check. We rose into the 90s, but it felt great outside. Temperatures will continue to climb over 100 tomorrow and right though the early part of this coming week. Clouds will increase, and now there is a better chance of seeing some moisture from what is now Tropical Storm Debby.

This is a shot of Debby, and what is interesting here is that the center of circulation was reported by the National Hurricane Center, to be on the far west side of that band of clouds you see above. Most of the rain and heavy wind is on the east side of Debby due to a west to east flow in the upper levels. However, this wind shear will begin to calm and that will allow the tropical storm to begin a strengthening and organizational process. In other words, storms will fill in and wrap around the true center of circulation over the following 48 hours.

Additionally, as discussed in the previous blog, we talk about how the models were all over the place, but the trend showed more of a westward movement towards Louisiana and Texas. That is still the trend and the National Hurricane Center agrees. The following is Debby's current forecast track over the next five days.

The white cone you see above indicates where the CENTER of circulation will be over the next five days. There is a possibility of a landfall in Louisiana, but also a possible scenario with a landfall over the Texas Gulf Coast. Due to this trend and forecast track from the Hurricane Center I will monitor this situation closely. Additionally, note how Debby barely makes any progress over 5 days. If this track and speed hold true, this will allow sufficient time for strengthening before a landfall.

At the moment, Debby has maximum sustained winds of 50mph with higher gusts. Slowly, but surly, Debby will have stronger winds over time. No threat to Texas over the next 3 days, but beyond that, I will take this storm seriously and update you accordingly.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.  

UPDATED: Tropical Trouble For The Brazos Valley?

THERE IS AN UPDATE TO THE BLOG AT THE BOTTOM.....

At the moment there is a disturbance that is in the east central portion of the Gulf of Mexico, where the center of circulation appears to be just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of clouds, storms and heavy rain is showing very slow movement. However, over the weekend, this cluster of tropical rains will get its act together. Once this "storm" has a more defined circulation and strengthens, we will be able to better forecast its movement and path of impact. Any area along the Gulf Coast is fair game, but let me show you the possibilities and where the computer guidance is trending.

The following image is a host of computer models that illustrates where the center of circulation will move over the next 5 days.

Due to this wacky look, we call this a "spaghetti plot." We just hold off the marinara sauce. Bottom line here is that there are a handful of weather models that indicate that this disturbance will move towards the central Gulf, but from there, models are all over the place. Some models take this "storm" towards Florida, and some towards Texas. This will be a waiting game until strengthening takes place over the weekend.

What I can tell you is that an area of high pressure that will sit over the heart of the U.S. this weekend and early next week will have a huge role in where this "storm" goes.

Blazing heat will spread across the Lone Star State though the Dakotas, but its the circulation around this high that could steer the "storm" in the Gulf. Wind flows clockwise around high pressure and therefore, could catch the disturbance and bring it towards the western Gulf next week.

The following are images of solid forecast computer models and where they are trending.

NOGAPS

UKMET

ECMWF

NAM

Note how these models indicate a low pressure center, most likely a tropical storm or hurricane and move it towards the Texas Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Many models are trending this way, but anything can change from now until then. This is just to give you a heads up that there is a possibility of tropical moisture moving towards our area.

Nonetheless, locations in Florida will recieve drenching rains....the question is....will we see this wall of water? Time will tell, but I will keep you updated.

UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has now classified this storm as Tropical Storm Debby. As of the latest forecast, the NHC has the Texas Coastline as a possible target for Debby in the middle of next week, but still anything can change.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.  

Huge Warm Up Expected

Well, we are 171 days into the year 2012, and so far no 100 degree temperatures for the Brazos Valley. Yeah, that was a lot of numbers in that opening sentence, but numbers don't lie. Due to the amount of rainfall so far this year, we have avoided some extreme heat. This time last year, we already had 8 days at or over 100 degrees. So far this year....none. However, that is going to change in a hurry.

As of right now, there are two dominant high pressure systems across the lower 48. One in the east, and one out west.

Over the coming days and into the weekend, these two cells will mend together and become one brute force in the center of the country. Otherwise known as the "Ring of Fire."

The jet stream will lift so far north and not only will Texas feel the heat, but everyone up to the Dakotas. Under this high there will be a large area of sinking air. When air sinks, its dry and warms rapidly. Therefore, we will not have any rain during this period and the afternoon highs will likely reach 100 degrees starting this weekend.

At the moment, there is not a clear indication when this pattern will break, but brace for the warmest air we have seen since last summer.

Note: Slap on plenty of sunscreen, drink lots of water and make sure to take a lot of breaks in the A/C

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews. You can also download our new weather app. Search: KAGS Weather, in the Apple App Store or Google Play for Android.

Much Better Chance of Rain Tomorrow

Hello there KAGS Weather Insiders. Its been a while, but we have been busy bees here at KAGS. Latest updates are our new weather app that you can download for Android and iPhone. Search, KAGS Weather and its 100% free. Additionally, students have been coming into the weather center from CSISD all this month to learn about meteorology and television. All of the students have been great and more are coming in until the end of June.

Anyway, lets get to the forecast.

Big storms have erupted over east Texas and Louisiana this afternoon, none are severe, but have produced very heavy rainfall. That complex of storms will slowly slide into our neck of the woods tomorrow. Overall, there is a huge dome of high pressure that is dominating the east coast at this time.

Note how the wind flows clockwise around the center of high pressure. Additionally, notice how broad this high is. Due to this circulation we are receiving winds that are directed from the east and southeast. Therefore, not only is this high transporting moisture from the gulf of Mexico, but from the Atlantic Ocean as well.

Solely from the moisture content, we could have some heavy duty storms that drop a ton of rain in a short amount of time. The only other ingredient we need is something to life the air. It could be a front, or body of low pressure. Of those we have the ladder, a body of low pressure that is hugging the coastline and slowly moving southwest.

Due to this extra lift and abundance of moisture, there will be a very good chance of experiencing a few thunderstorms tomorrow with heavy downpours and possibly some small hail. Same idea goes for Wednesday, but Tuesday will be the best day to see rainfall here across the Brazos Valley.

As this low moves south, the rain goes with it as well. Therefore, by Thursday the sky will clear and temperatures will sky rocket.

Overall, expect some areas of heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday, with a huge warm up by the end of the week. Yup, 100° temperatures are in the forecast.

New Tool To Save Property

Written By: Nabihah Akram (Meteorology Shadow)

There is a new tool that has just came out called the Storm Risk Calculator made by the city of Houston and Rice University. This tool allows residents and business owners to enter their address and learn about the risk for rainfall, power outage, rain damage, or storm surge. The user can also adjust the strength of the storm from a Category 1-5 in order to see how the risks will increase or decrease depending on the size of the hurricane. This product took five years to make with the hope that it would direct Houstonians in making better-educated decisions in the next emergency. As Robert Stein said, “The best way to get people to do something is to give them the information that they need to make an educated decision.” The goal for this product is to decrease the number of unnecessary evacuations for Houstonians and the panic that comes along with it. According to Storemski the greater Houston area is more prepared because of this project and Harris County is in store for another storm like Rita.

Hurricanes are very dangerous and you can never be too prepared. First you should make sure your house meets building code requirements for high-wind regions. Experts say that if the house meets or exceeds the certain requirements for current model building codes it has a better chance of surviving violent windstorms. For windows that would have a greater chance in surviving a wind storm, it would be best to install impact-resistant window systems.  If you are caught outside in high winds you should take cover next a nearby building, avoid elevated areas, uses handrails if possible, and so not go near railroads or train tracks. For more information about what do in high winds, hurricane home protection, other good to know things about hurricane safety visit, and the Storm Risk Calculator you can visit http://risk.rtsnets.com/.

SLOW Moving Storm = Lots of Rain Chances Here

Finally, something we have been waiting for here in the heart of the Brazos Valley.....a slow moving weather system that could bring us wet weather during a several day stretch. Typically, when we settle into the summer type pattern storms form and dump precipitation well north of us while we sit in the heat and humidity.

However, hope has arrived and the center of this slow moving storm is in northwest Texas.

The center of low pressure you see in the above image is a disturbance in the mid-levels and riding along a very slow moving front that will eventually move closer to our neck of the woods. At the moment, we are sitting in the heat and humidity as moisture continues to get pumped off the Gulf of Mexico.

Due to weak winds in the mid-levels, this low and front will crawl at a snails pace to us. Therefore, Tuesday should be a dry day, but by Wednesday clouds will increase, we will see one or two isolated storms, but when this energy finally is close enough, rain chances will sky rocket.

At the moment, the best shot at seeing any rain here will come from a period between Thursday and Saturday. We should not see any day long washouts, but any storms that do crop up will have the ability to dump very heavy rain due to the abundance of moisture in the atmosphere. Additionally, these individual storms will move quite slow due to the weak winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Furthermore, I will keep my eye closely on the possibility of any thunderstorms becoming severe, but know this will not be a big outbreak. Mainly thunderstorms with very heavy rain with a couple generating severe characteristics.

Though the entire event will not be over until late Saturday...here is a sneak peek at what one of the computer models are putting out for total rain from Wednesday to Sunday.



Yes, the potential is there for several inches of rain, but each day needs to be mointored closely.

For more news and weather you can log onto: www.facebook.com/KAGSweather or www.facebook.com/KAGSTV. You can also check out our twitter feeds: @KAGSweather and @KAGSnews.