Severe Weather Threat Tonight

From the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), in Norman, OK, the entire Brazos Valley is under a slight risk of severe weather this evening and into the overnight hours. Large storms have already blossomed in West Texas and will move in our direction though out the evening. This risk for severe weather is mainly for gusty winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. As far as tornadoes, there is a minimal to no risk. There is plenty of energy in the atmosphere to create large storms, but barley and shear (change in wind speed and direction with height) to significantly rotate thunderstorms. This is why the tornado risk is so small.

As of earlier this afternoon, a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH was issued by the SPC for central Texas, including Milam and Lee counties until 11PM

Based on the activity in west Texas that is moving closer to us, I would not be surprised if this Watch were to be extended later tonight and covered the entire viewing area.

Check out the latest image from Max Storm with the intense activity in the Concho Valley that is moving closer to I-35.

Already, strong winds in excess of 60mph has been reported with this complex as well as hail close to golf ball sized. This entire area is slowly moving closer to us. What will happen is that some of these thunderstorms will dies off, but the energy that comes from the dying storms will help to ignite new ones. Therefore, I will keep a close eye on this complex the entire evening to see what exactly pans out.

There is plenty of energy to generate large storms here, but we need an element that will lift the air and bubble up thunderstorms. One, we can use the energy from dying storms (called an outflow boundary, or a mini cold front), or we can use a large scale cold front that sits to our north.

No matter where the energy comes from, there are two different ways we can create the storms and this is why we have a good chance of seeing rain tonight and some strong storms.

As of right now, the timing seems to be from 8PM to 12AM tonight in which we have the highest threat of experiencing violent thunderstorms in the Brazos Valley. Again, the main threats will be large hail, heavy rain and a ton of lightning.

The cold front you see above will pass by the area by tomorrow, which yes will send in much COOLER air and decrease the humidity.

A threat for a shower is not out of the question tomorrow, but we will not drip in sweat like today or this past weekend. Plus, another wave on energy will cross into Mexico and be here by Friday to help add in another good shot at widespread rainfall.

Note the enclosed circle over the Baha of California and into southern Arizona. This is the upper level energy that I will watch this week that will spell more rain for us.

The more rain the better, and it will be much cooler too right though the weekend.

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